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Full-Text Articles in Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering
Decision Analysis And Validation Of Value Focused Thinking Decision Models Using Multivariate Analysis Techniques, James L. Pruitt
Decision Analysis And Validation Of Value Focused Thinking Decision Models Using Multivariate Analysis Techniques, James L. Pruitt
Theses and Dissertations
Decision Analysis (DA) is a useful tool to assist decision makers (DM) with difficult and complex decisions using mathematical models. Value Focused Thinking (VFT) models are a useful DA tool widely employed in the Air Force. However, VFT models are rarely validated. This research will attempt to validate any given VFT model and provide insight into the discriminating attributes of the alternative set. First, a two group discriminant analysis is applied the alternative set given the prior knowledge of the selected alternatives. Next, compromise programming is used attempt to minimize the distance between the posterior probability of an alternative being …
Decision Analysis Using Value-Focused Thinking For Infrastructure Prioritization, Mona A. Tenorio
Decision Analysis Using Value-Focused Thinking For Infrastructure Prioritization, Mona A. Tenorio
Theses and Dissertations
Infrastructure systems and facilities have deteriorated due to the impact of limited defense funding and competing priorities within the Air Force. The current method used for infrastructure prioritization is influenced by political sensitivity and uncertainty regarding the consequences of various funding decisions. Senior leaders need to better understand how their funding decisions will impact the overall condition and service life of the installation's infrastructure systems and facilities. The purpose of this research was to improve the method of prioritizing infrastructure projects through the use of a decision analysis methodology known as Value-Focused Thinking. The value model was created based on …
Decision Analysis Using Value-Focused Thinking To Select Renewable Alternative Fuels, Eric A. Queddeng
Decision Analysis Using Value-Focused Thinking To Select Renewable Alternative Fuels, Eric A. Queddeng
Theses and Dissertations
The United States relies on imported oil as a result of domestic petroleum consumption rates greatly exceeding production rates. Alternative fuels are a major force in the effort to reduce petroleum consumption in the transportation industry. The transportation industry also accounts for 1/3 of all greenhouse gas emissions and nearly half of all cancers attributed to outdoor sources of pollutants. The purpose of this research was to evaluate the economic and environmental feasibility of renewable alternative fuels and associated blends (ethanol, methanol, 100% biodiesel (B100), 20% biodiesel (B20) and e-diesel) compared to non-renewable alternative fuels (compressed natural gas and propane) …
Value-Focused Thinking In The Presence Of Weight Ambiguity: A Solution Technique Using Monte Carlo Simulation, Timothy W. Porter
Value-Focused Thinking In The Presence Of Weight Ambiguity: A Solution Technique Using Monte Carlo Simulation, Timothy W. Porter
Theses and Dissertations
When a Decision Maker is asked to provide his or her preferences, the response represents a snapshot in time. While their preference structure elicited at any given moment may represent their revealed preferences at that point in time, it may change over time. These changing preferences over time represent ambiguity in the decision maker's preferences. Other sources of ambiguity may exist. One weakness of many decision analysis techniques today is the inability to incorporate ambiguity into the basic decision model. The existence of the problem has been known and commented on for many years. This research addresses that problem. It …
Robust Sensitivity Analysis For Multi-Attribute Deterministic Hierarchical Value Models, Yucel R. Kahraman
Robust Sensitivity Analysis For Multi-Attribute Deterministic Hierarchical Value Models, Yucel R. Kahraman
Theses and Dissertations
The Air Force's ability to deploy, employ, and sustain operations in forward locations is a key to mission success. An integral part of this strategy is equipment pre-positioning, to include: vehicles, aircraft support, consumable inventory, and munitions. This research focuses on defining and developing a model to aid decision makers with the afloat pre-positioning and deployment of munitions in an effort to ensure that the right weapons are available when, and where needed. This research places a particular focus on the strategic, global pre-positioning of the Afloat Pre-positioning Fleet (APF) in an effort to minimize the overall response time involved …
A Force Structuring Model For A Moderately-Sized Nato Country, Hakan Bal
A Force Structuring Model For A Moderately-Sized Nato Country, Hakan Bal
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this research is to develop a mathematical model which will aid the decision-makers of a moderately-sized NATO country to develop their future force structure composition. As the number of alternatives grows, and as the consequences become more important and more uncertain, the force structuring decision becomes increasingly difficult. The valuable lessons of past experience cannot be ignored. However, when one considers the high rotation rates of most countries' air forces, the rapid change in technology and the vast array of options available, even the most experienced leaders need some assistance. Hence, decision support tools are needed to …