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Forecasting And Explanatory Models For Middle Eastern Defense Budgets: A Case Study Of Saudi Arabia, Robert S. Renfro Ii

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis focuses on means of forecasting Saudi Arabian military expenditures and the effect of such expenditures on the United States. Saudi Arabia is one of the largest purchasers of American arms and will continue to be for many years. Saudi Arabia has experienced several recent changes in economic and government policy. Using exponential smoothing techniques and linear regression, we isolated several trends in Saudi Arabian military expenditures. Using two linear regression models, military expenditures were then forecast with excellent results. The first model considered the assumption that Gulf War spending would continue. This model uses Saudi Arabian Gross Domestic …