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Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons™
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Articles 1 - 5 of 5
Full-Text Articles in Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering
On The Decision To Take A Pitch, J. Eric Bickel
On The Decision To Take A Pitch, J. Eric Bickel
Eric Bickel
Baseball is a highly strategic game, with decisions being made almost continuously. In this paper, we analyze the decision to have the batter take a pitch, which means that he does not swing at the pitch under any circumstances—even if it is easily hittable. Why would a batter do this? Using decision-theoretic reasoning, we determine under what circumstances such a decision is good. We find that in some cases, taking pitches deterministically dominates not taking.
Verification Of The Weather Channel Probability Of Precipitation Forecasts, Eric Bickel, Seong Kim
Verification Of The Weather Channel Probability Of Precipitation Forecasts, Eric Bickel, Seong Kim
Eric Bickel
The Weather Channel (TWC) is a leading provider of weather information to the general public. In this paper the reliability of their probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts over a 14-month period at 42 locations across the United States is verified. It is found that PoPs between 0.4 and 0.9 are well calibrated for near-term forecasts. However, overall TWC PoPs are biased toward precipitation, significantly so during the warm season (April–September). PoPs lower than 0.3 and above 0.9 are not well calibrated, a fact that can be explained by TWC’s forecasting procedure. In addition, PoPs beyond a 6-day lead time are …
The Relationship Between Perfect And Imperfect Information In A Risk-Sensitive Two-Action Problem, Eric Bickel
The Relationship Between Perfect And Imperfect Information In A Risk-Sensitive Two-Action Problem, Eric Bickel
Eric Bickel
No abstract provided.
Quantifying 3d Land Seismic Reliability And Value, J. Eric Bickel, Richard L. Gibson, Duane A. Mcvay, Stephen Pickering, John Waggoner
Quantifying 3d Land Seismic Reliability And Value, J. Eric Bickel, Richard L. Gibson, Duane A. Mcvay, Stephen Pickering, John Waggoner
Eric Bickel
Seismic data provide essential information for guiding reservoir development. Improvements in data quality hold the promise of improving performance even further, provided that the value of these data exceed their cost. Previous work has demonstrated value-of-information (VoI) methods to quantify the value of seismic data. In these examples, seismic accuracy was obtained via expert assessment instead of being based on geophysical quantities. The modeled seismic information was not representative of any quantity that would be observed in a seismic image. Here we apply a more general VoI model that includes multiple targets, budgetary constraints, and quantitative models relating post-stack seismic …
Modeling Dependence Among Geologic Risks In Sequential Exploration Decisions, J. Eric Bickel, James E. Smith
Modeling Dependence Among Geologic Risks In Sequential Exploration Decisions, J. Eric Bickel, James E. Smith
Eric Bickel
Prospects in a common basin are likely to share geologic features. For example, if hydrocarbons are found at one location, they may be more likely to be found at other nearby locations. When making drilling decisions, we should be able to exploit this dependence and use drilling results from one location to make more informed decisions about other nearby prospects. Moreover, we should consider these informational synergies when evaluating multi-prospect exploration opportunities. In this paper, we describe an approach for modeling the dependence among prospects and determining an optimal drilling strategy that takes this information into account. We demonstrate this …