Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons^™

Forecasting Employee Turnover In Large Organizations, Xiaojuan Zhu

Doctoral Dissertations

Researchers and human resource departments have focused on employee turnover for decades. This study developed a methodology forecasting employee turnover at organizational and departmental levels to shorten lead time for hiring employees. Various time series modeling techniques were used to identify optimal models for effective employee-turnover prediction based on a large U.S organization's 11-year monthly turnover data. A dynamic regression model with additive trend, seasonality, interventions, and a very important economic indicator efficiently predicted turnover. Another turnover model predicted both retirement and quitting, including early retirement incentives, demographics, and external economic indicators using the Cox proportional hazard model. A variety …