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Selected Works

Jeffrey Keisler

Articles 1 - 9 of 9

Full-Text Articles in Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering

Research Methodologies And The Field Of Decision Analysis.Pdf, Jeffrey Keisler Oct 2018

Research Methodologies And The Field Of Decision Analysis.Pdf, Jeffrey Keisler

Jeffrey Keisler

This presentation considers three questions. (1) What is a research methodology as opposed to any old methodology and what is the role of research methodologies in scholarship? (2) In what ways do and in what ways can decision analysis scholars incorporate common research methodologies? (3) How and why might we think of decision analysis itself as a research methodology?

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In Memoriam: Howard Raiffa, Jeffrey Keisler Aug 2016

In Memoriam: Howard Raiffa, Jeffrey Keisler

Jeffrey Keisler

No abstract provided.

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Balancing Research And Funding Using Value Of Information And Portfolio Tools For Nanomaterial Risk Classification Jan 2016

Balancing Research And Funding Using Value Of Information And Portfolio Tools For Nanomaterial Risk Classification

Jeffrey Keisler

Risk research for nanomaterials is currently prioritized by means of expert workshops and other deliberative processes. However, analytical techniques that quantify and compare alternative research investments are increasingly recommended. Here, we apply value of information and portfolio decision analysis—methods commonly applied in financial and operations management—to prioritize risk research for multiwalled carbon nanotubes and nanoparticulate silver and titanium dioxide. We modify the widely accepted CB Nanotool hazard evaluation framework, which combines nano- and bulk-material properties into a hazard score, to operate probabilistically with uncertain inputs. Literature is reviewed to develop uncertain estimates for each input parameter, and a Monte Carlo …

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Operational Resilience: Concepts, Design And Analysis, Alexander A. Ganin, Emanuelle Massaro, Alexander Gutfraind, Nicholas Steen, Jeffrey Keisler, Alexander Kott, Rami Mangoubi, Igor Linkov Jan 2016

Operational Resilience: Concepts, Design And Analysis, Alexander A. Ganin, Emanuelle Massaro, Alexander Gutfraind, Nicholas Steen, Jeffrey Keisler, Alexander Kott, Rami Mangoubi, Igor Linkov

Jeffrey Keisler

Building resilience into today’s complex infrastructures is critical to the daily functioning of society and
its ability to withstand and recover from natural disasters, epidemics, and cyber-threats. This study
proposes quantitative measures that capture and implement the definition of engineering resilience
advanced by the National Academy of Sciences. The approach is applicable across physical, information,
and social domains. It evaluates the critical functionality, defined as a performance function of time set
by the stakeholders. Critical functionality is a source of valuable information, such as the integrated
system resilience over a time interval, and its robustness. The paper demonstrates the formulation …

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Project Management Decisions With Uncertain Targets, Jeffrey Keisler, Robert Bordley Dec 2014

Project Management Decisions With Uncertain Targets, Jeffrey Keisler, Robert Bordley

Jeffrey Keisler

Project management decision rules presume that fixed and inflexible targets have been defined for the project. If a project's slack is defined as the difference between actual project performance and these targets, then these decision rules can be characterized as maximizing the probability that slack is non-negative (i.e., maximizing the probability of meeting the targets). These rules rely on z-scores to compare uncertain performance to target levels. Following these decision rules will not always suffice for the project manager to act consistently with customer preferences. In particular, actual requirements may be uncertain or subject to change, and customers may have …

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Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis And Environmental Modeling For The Everglades, Matteo Convertino, Christy Foran, Jeffrey Keisler, Lynn Scarlett, Andrew Loschiavo, Greg Kiker, Igor Linkov Sep 2013

Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis And Environmental Modeling For The Everglades, Matteo Convertino, Christy Foran, Jeffrey Keisler, Lynn Scarlett, Andrew Loschiavo, Greg Kiker, Igor Linkov

Jeffrey Keisler

We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can
guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these
alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing
stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland
restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives
designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high
operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as …

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Risky Removal: Developing A Holistic Understanding Of The Risks Of Redeveloping Sites Contaminated With Unexploded Ordnance, Matthew Bates, Elizabeth Jones, Jeffrey Keisler, Igor Linkov Mar 2013

Risky Removal: Developing A Holistic Understanding Of The Risks Of Redeveloping Sites Contaminated With Unexploded Ordnance, Matthew Bates, Elizabeth Jones, Jeffrey Keisler, Igor Linkov

Jeffrey Keisler

No abstract provided.

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Scenario Analysis: A Review Of Methods And Applications For Engineering And Environmental Systems, Yousra Tourki, Jeffrey Keisler, Igor Linkov Feb 2013

Scenario Analysis: A Review Of Methods And Applications For Engineering And Environmental Systems, Yousra Tourki, Jeffrey Keisler, Igor Linkov

Jeffrey Keisler

Changing environment, uncertain economic conditions, and socio-political unrest have renewed interest in scenario analysis, both from theoretical and applied points of view. Nevertheless, neither the processes for scenario analysis (SA) nor evaluation criteria and metrics have been regularized. In this paper, SA-reported applications and implementation methodology are discussed in the context of an extensive literature review covering papers published between 2000 and 2010. Over 340 papers were identified through a series of queries in the web of science database. The papers were classified based on the North American Industrial Classification System and SA application goals (environmental, business, and social). SA …

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Combining Multi-Attribute Utility And Geographic Information For Boundary Decisions: An Application To Park Planning, Jeffrey Keisler, Ronald Sundell Nov 1997

Combining Multi-Attribute Utility And Geographic Information For Boundary Decisions: An Application To Park Planning, Jeffrey Keisler, Ronald Sundell

Jeffrey Keisler

The quality and value of an area depend primarily on what is found within
its designated boundaries. To determine the value of such areas in terms of boundaries,
we have developed a methodology for integrating multi-attribute utility functions with
spatial analysis so that desirable, or appropriate, boundaries can be determined on the
basis of the goals and objectives for the park. The key to successful evaluation is the
development of measures for what decision makers value, rather than merely using
what is easily measured. In a detailed example for planning of national parks, the
fundamental objectives are conservation and societal …

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