Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering Commons^™

Uncertainty Assessment In High-Risk Environments Using Probability, Evidence Theory And Expert Judgment Elicitation, Stella Barberis Bondi

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The level of uncertainty in advanced system design is assessed by comparing the results of expert judgment elicitation to probability and evidence theory. This research shows how one type of monotone measure, namely Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence can expand the framework of uncertainty to provide decision makers a more robust solution space. The issues imbedded in this research are focused on how the relevant predictive uncertainty produced by similar action is measured.

This methodology uses the established approach from traditional probability theory and Dempster-Shafer evidence theory to combine two classes of uncertainty, aleatory and epistemic. Probability theory provides the mathematical …