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Modeling The Impact Of Simulated Educational Interventions On The Use And Abuse Of Pharmaceutical Opioids In The United States: A Report On Initial Efforts, Wayne Wakeland, Alexandra E. Nielsen, Teresa D. Schmidt, Dennis Mccarty, Lynn Webster, John Fitzgerald, J. David Haddox

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Three educational interventions were simulated in a system dynamics model of the medical use, trafficking, and nonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioids. The study relied on secondary data obtained in the literature for the period of 1995 to 2008 as well as expert panel recommendations regarding model parameters and structure. The behavior of the resulting systems-level model was tested for fit against reference behavior data. After the base model was tested, logic to represent three educational interventions was added and the impact of each intervention on simulated overdose deaths was evaluated over a 7-year evaluation period, 2008 to 2015. Principal findings …