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Full-Text Articles in Engineering Science and Materials
Modeling The Impact Of Simulated Educational Interventions On The Use And Abuse Of Pharmaceutical Opioids In The United States: A Report On Initial Efforts, Wayne Wakeland, Alexandra E. Nielsen, Teresa D. Schmidt, Dennis Mccarty, Lynn Webster, John Fitzgerald, J. David Haddox
Modeling The Impact Of Simulated Educational Interventions On The Use And Abuse Of Pharmaceutical Opioids In The United States: A Report On Initial Efforts, Wayne Wakeland, Alexandra E. Nielsen, Teresa D. Schmidt, Dennis Mccarty, Lynn Webster, John Fitzgerald, J. David Haddox
Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations
Three educational interventions were simulated in a system dynamics model of the medical use, trafficking, and nonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioids. The study relied on secondary data obtained in the literature for the period of 1995 to 2008 as well as expert panel recommendations regarding model parameters and structure. The behavior of the resulting systems-level model was tested for fit against reference behavior data. After the base model was tested, logic to represent three educational interventions was added and the impact of each intervention on simulated overdose deaths was evaluated over a 7-year evaluation period, 2008 to 2015. Principal findings …
The Case For Thoroughly Testing Complex System Dynamic Models, Wayne Wakeland, Megan Hoarfrost
The Case For Thoroughly Testing Complex System Dynamic Models, Wayne Wakeland, Megan Hoarfrost
Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations
In order to determine whether model testing is as useful as suggested by modeling experts, the full battery of model tests recommended by Forrester, Senge, Sterman, and others was applied retrospectively to a complex previously-published system dynamics model. The time required to carry out each type of test was captured, and the benefits that resulted from applying each test was determined subjectively. The resulting benefit to cost ratios are reported. These ratios suggest that rather than focusing primarily on sensitivity testing, modelers should consider other types of model tests such as extreme condition tests and family member tests. The study …