Computer Engineering Commons^™

Teen Driver System Modeling: A Tool For Policy Analysis, Celestin Missikpode, Corrine Peek-Asa, Daniel V. Mcgehee, James Torner, Wayne Wakeland, Robert Wallace

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Background: Motor vehicle crashes remain the leading cause of teen deaths in spite of preventive efforts. Prevention strategies could be advanced through new analytic approaches that allow us to better conceptualize the complex processes underlying teen crash risk. This may help policymakers design appropriate interventions and evaluate their impacts.

Methods: System Dynamics methodology was used as a new way of representing factors involved in the underlying process of teen crash risk. Systems dynamics modeling is relatively new to public health analytics and is a promising tool to examine relative influence of multiple interacting factors in predicting a health …

Using System Dynamics To Contribute To Ecological Economics, Takuro Uehara, Yoko Nagase, Wayne Wakeland

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper demonstrates the usefulness of the system dynamics approach to the development of ecological economics, the study of the interactions between economic systems and ecological systems. We build and analyze an ecological economic model: an extension of a population–resource dynamics model developed by Brander and Taylor and published in American Economic Review in 1998. The focus of the present paper is on the model building and analysis to contribute to theory building rather than eliciting policy implications from the model. Hence, this is an example of model-based theory building using system dynamics. Our analysis sheds light on several problems …

Calibration Of Complex System Dynamics Models: A Practioner's Report, Rod Walker, Wayne Wakeland

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper is not a typical academic paper that is solidly grounded in the literature. Instead, this paper reports practitioner’s experiences in rebuilding and calibrating a very large system dynamics model. A prior version of this model had been in use for over 10 years in an ongoing executive training simulation. That model had never worked correctly in several key areas, requiring the outputs to be manually adjusted by very experienced facilitators during the course of the simulation. The present project rebuilt the system dynamics model, redesigned the parts that weren’t working, and calibrated the resulting model to match the …

A System Dynamics Model Of Pharmaceutical Opioids: Medical Use, Diversion, And Nonmedical Use, Teresa Schmidt, Wayne Wakeland, J. David Haddox

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

A dramatic rise in the nonmedical of pharmaceutical opioids has presented the United States with a substantial public health problem. Nonmedical use of prescription pain relievers has become increasingly prevalent in the US over the last two decades, and diversion of medicines obtained by prescription is assumed to be a major source of supply for nonmedical opioid use. Policymakers striving to protect population health by ameliorating the adverse outcomes of nonmedical use of opioid analgesics could benefit from a systems-level model which reflects the complexity of the system and incorporates the full range of available data. To address this need, …

Comparing Discrete Simulation And System Dynamics: Modeling An Anti-Insurgency Influence Operation, Wayne Wakeland, Una E. Medina

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper contrasts the tradeoffs of modeling the same dynamic problem at a micro scale and at a macro scale of analysis: discrete system simulation (DS) versus continuous system simulation or system dynamics (SD). Both are employed to model the influence of entertainment education on terrorist system decay, with implications for field application. Each method optimizes different design, scope/scale, data availability/accuracy, parameter settings, and system sensitivities. Whether the research served by the computer model is applied or theoretical, DS tends to be useful for understand low-level individual unit/step influences on system change over time, whereas SD tends to shine when …

System Dynamics Implementation Of An Extended Brander And Taylor-Like Easter Island Model, Takuro Uehara, Yoko Nagase, Wayne Wakeland

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

We provide a system dynamics implementation of a dynamic ecological economics model. Dynamic economic models are often constrained to use functions, such as the Cobb-Douglas function, chosen “conveniently” to allow for analytic solutions. The C-D function, however, suffers from its fixed elasticity that does not allow for the substitutability between man-made capital and natural capital to change, which is vital for economic sustainability. Using system dynamics removes this constraint and enables more realistic ecological economics models containing functions not amenable to analytic solution. The base model is the natural resource and population growth model developed by Brander and Taylor (1998) …

A Hybrid Simulation Model For Studying Acute Inflammatory Response, Wayne W. Wakeland, Louis Macovsky, Gary An

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

The modeling of complex biological systems presents a significant challenge. Central to this challenge is striking a balance between the degree of abstraction required to facilitate analysis and understanding, and the degree of comprehensiveness required for fidelity of the model to its reference-system. It is likely necessary to utilize multiple modeling methods in order to achieve this balance. Our research created a hybrid simulation model by melding an agent-based model of acute local infection with a system dynamics model that reflects key systemic properties. The agent based model was originally developed to simulate global inflammation in response to injury or …

An Agent-Based Model Of Trade With Distance-Based Transaction Cost, Kumar Venkat, Wayne W. Wakeland

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper describes an application of agent-based modeling to investigate the effect of a distance-based transaction cost on trade. Long-distance trade is rapidly increasing, but may ultimately be constrained by our ability to move material goods between sellers and buyers. Unlike information exchange, trade in material goods is dependent on the price of oil and vulnerable to future scarcities of oil. In addition, there are growing concerns about greenhouse gas emissions from long-distance transportation. Our purpose in this study is to take the first step in understanding the impact of a distance constraint on free global trade using a simple …

The Case For Thoroughly Testing Complex System Dynamic Models, Wayne Wakeland, Megan Hoarfrost

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

In order to determine whether model testing is as useful as suggested by modeling experts, the full battery of model tests recommended by Forrester, Senge, Sterman, and others was applied retrospectively to a complex previously-published system dynamics model. The time required to carry out each type of test was captured, and the benefits that resulted from applying each test was determined subjectively. The resulting benefit to cost ratios are reported. These ratios suggest that rather than focusing primarily on sensitivity testing, modelers should consider other types of model tests such as extreme condition tests and family member tests. The study …

Metamodeling Aspects Of Model Conceptualization, Wayne W. Wakeland

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper suggests a technique for improving the conceptualization of models. The key aspect of this technique is to set aside the main model for a period of time during the model conceptualization process and focus on building a "watchdog" submodel. The primary purpose of the watchdog submodel is to assure that the main model remains internally consistent during its operation. In the experience of this author, such a submodel can help to identify model conceptualization errors and to determine if a model is sufficiently "robust" to adequately replicate the behavior of the system being modeled.

This is not a …

Microcomputer Mrp In Three Months: Photon Kinetics, Wayne W. Wakeland

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Information about the company Photon Kinetics, a small, privately-held manufacturer of fiber optics test equipment, located in Beaverton, Oregon.