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Full-Text Articles in Computer Engineering
Transmission Process Prediction Of Novel Coronavirus Based On System Dynamics, Xuepeng Lu, Shang Jiao, Junhui Zhao, Lulu Lü, Zhou Li
Transmission Process Prediction Of Novel Coronavirus Based On System Dynamics, Xuepeng Lu, Shang Jiao, Junhui Zhao, Lulu Lü, Zhou Li
Journal of System Simulation
Abstract: The transmission characteristics of novel coronavirus is considered and a new SE4IR2 model based on the principle of system dynamics is proposed. The US epidemic data from June to November is used to set the isolation rate and other parameters, and the SE4IR2 model is used to fit, analyze and predict the development of the epidemic trend in the next stage. The empirical part uses the data from June to November in the United States to achieve the parameters of the SE4IR2 model, obtains the parameter values in December and January through the time series prediction model, and compares …
Simulation On The Development Of Residential Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Under The Declining Trend Of Feed-In-Tariff, Libo Zhang, Lulu Ge, Changqi Chen, Mingduan Tang
Simulation On The Development Of Residential Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Under The Declining Trend Of Feed-In-Tariff, Libo Zhang, Lulu Ge, Changqi Chen, Mingduan Tang
Journal of System Simulation
Abstract: Residential Distributed Photovoltaic Generation (R-DPVG) has become the important developing force of PV generation in China. As the declining of Feed-in-Tariff (FIT), system dynamics method is used to construct a causal loop model for R-DPVG’s development, and relevant factors and their feedback mechanism are qualitatively analyzed. Then a stock-flow model is build, and the ROI, installed capacity, and policy subsidy costs of R-DPVG are simulated under some combined scenarios based on declining FIT. The simulation proves R-DPVG’s FIT will be reduced to 0.05 ~ 0.1 yuan/(kW?h) in the next three years till cancelled. FIT cutting amplitude, capacity and targets …
Development Paths Of New Energy Vehicles Incorporating Co2 Emissions Trading Scheme, Wenxiang Li, Li Ye, Jieshuang Dong, Yiming Li
Development Paths Of New Energy Vehicles Incorporating Co2 Emissions Trading Scheme, Wenxiang Li, Li Ye, Jieshuang Dong, Yiming Li
Journal of System Simulation
Abstract: New energy vehicles in China have entered the “post-subsidy era”, and it is urgent to explore and establish a long-term mechanism for market-oriented development. The CO2 emission trading scheme for road transport (ETS-RT) is introduced to replace financial subsidies, forming a market-oriented incentive and punishment mechanism. Therefore, a market mechanism is established where internal combustion engine vehicles feed new energy vehicles. A causal loop diagram of system dynamics was used to analyze the key policy parameters of the ETS-RT that affect the development of new energy vehicles. Then a multi-agents-based model of ETS-RT is established to simulate the …
Modeling And Simulation Of Electric Vehicle Industry Development Based On System Dynamics, Yueqiang Fu, Tiantian Xia
Modeling And Simulation Of Electric Vehicle Industry Development Based On System Dynamics, Yueqiang Fu, Tiantian Xia
Journal of System Simulation
Abstract: New energy electric vehicle are the main trend of automobile industry upgrading. It plays an important role in ensuring the energy security and improving the ecological environment. It is of theoretical and practical significance to carry out research on the development of new energy electric vehicles. The affecting factors are systematically analyzed, the causal relationship model and stock flow model are established, and the dynamic equation of the model are determined and the parameter assignments are made. The model is verified and the system simulation and analysis are performed. The development trend and main influencing factors of …
Study On Ultimate Carrying Capacity And Regulation Methods Of Urban Atmospheric Environment, Guangqiu Huang, Wenxin Wang
Study On Ultimate Carrying Capacity And Regulation Methods Of Urban Atmospheric Environment, Guangqiu Huang, Wenxin Wang
Journal of System Simulation
Abstract: In order to solve the calculation problem of the ultimate carrying capacity of the atmospheric environment, the calculation formula of the ultimate carrying capacity of the atmospheric environment is proposed, and the system dynamics model with the ‘pollution index-energy' compliance as the constraint is constructed according to the urban energy planning, namely the PI-E-SD(Pollution Indicator-Energy-System Dynamics) model. In this model, the linear regression method is used to determine the pollution index, which solves the non-uniformity problem. The SD-modeling method is used to construct the “energy-economy-environment” simulation system, so that the government measures can be quantified to make the prediction …