Civil and Environmental Engineering Commons^™

Risk Of Colon Cancer In Hereditary Non-Polyposis Colorectal Cancer Patients As Predicted By Fuzzy Modeling: Influence Of Smoking, Rhonda M. Brand, David D. Jones, Henry T. Lynch, Randall E. Brand, Patrice Watson, Ramesh Ashwathnayaran, Hemant K. Roy

Department of Biological Systems Engineering: Papers and Publications

AIM: To investigate whether a fuzzy logic model could predict colorectal cancer (CRC) risk engendered by smoking in hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC) patients.

METHODS: Three hundred and forty HNPCC mismatch repair (MMR) mutation carriers from the Creighton University Hereditary Cancer Institute Registry were selected for modeling. Age-dependent curves were generated to elucidate the joint effects between gene mutation (hMLH1 or hMSH2), gender, and smoking status on the probability of developing CRC.

RESULTS: Smoking significantly increased CRC risk in male hMSH2 mutation carriers (P < 0.05). hMLH1 mutations augmented CRC risk relative to hMSH2 mutation carriers for males (P < 0.05). Males had a significantly higher risk of CRC than females for hMLH1 non smokers (P < 0.05), hMLH1 smokers (P < 0.1) and hMSH2 smokers (P < 0.1). Smoking promoted CRC in a dose-dependent manner in hMSH2 in males (P < 0.05). Females with hMSH2 mutations and both sexes with the hMLH1 groups only demonstrated a smoking effect after an extensive smoking history (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION: CRC promotion by smoking in HNPCC patients is dependent on gene mutation, gender and age. …