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Modeling Portfolios Of Low Carbon Energy Generation Under Deep Uncertainty, Franklyn Kanyako
Modeling Portfolios Of Low Carbon Energy Generation Under Deep Uncertainty, Franklyn Kanyako
Doctoral Dissertations
In the 2015 Paris Agreement, nearly every country pledge through the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) increased adoption of low carbon energy technologies in their energy system. However, allocating investments to different low carbon energy technologies under rising demand for energy and budget constraints, uncertain technical change in these technologies involves maneuvering significant uncertainties among experts, models, and decision-makers. We examine the interactions of low carbon energy sources (LCES) under the condition of deep uncertainty. Deep uncertainty directly impacts the understanding of the role of low carbon energy technologies in climate change mitigation and how much R&D investment should be allocated …
Role Of Low Carbon Energy Technologies In Near Term Energy Policy, Olaitan P. Olaleye
Role Of Low Carbon Energy Technologies In Near Term Energy Policy, Olaitan P. Olaleye
Doctoral Dissertations
In the first part of this thesis, we use a multi-model framework to examine a set of possible future energy scenarios resulting from R&D portfolios of Solar, Nuclear, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), Bio-Fuels, Bio-Electricity and Batteries for electric transportation. We show that CCS significantly complements Bio-Electricity, while most of the other energy technology pairs are substitutes. From the probabilistic analysis of future energy scenarios we observe that portfolios with CCS tend to stochastically dominate those without CCS; portfolios with only renewables tend to be stochastically dominated by others; and that there are clear decreasing marginal returns to scale. We …