Engineering Commons^™

Response Surface Methodology As A Sensitivity Tool In Decision Analysis, David A. Meyers

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this study is to evaluate response surface methodology as a sensitivity analysis tool in the area of decision analysis. The advent of low-cost personal computer software, such as DPLTM, has created an accessible tool with the ability to frame and solve influence diagrams for decision problems. This study provides a comparison of current sensitivity analysis techniques vs those made possible through response surface methodology (RSM). Sensitivity analysis alternatives are demonstrated on a decision problem concerning the evaluation of force structure options for the Department of Defense. Sensitivity analysis is performed on both one-way and two-way perturbations of …

A Methodology For Evaluating Military Systems In A Counterproliferation Role, Stanley Stafira Jr.

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis develops a methodology to evaluate how dissimilar military systems support the accomplishment of the United States? counterproliferation objectives. The overall scope is to develop a model of the counterproliferation decision process that enables systems to be evaluated against common criteria. By using decision analysis, an influence diagram model is developed which represents military activities in the counterproliferation process. The key questions which must be asked in evaluating counterproliferation systems are highlighted. An analysis of perfect intelligence, perfect defensive, and perfect offensive systems reveal that a perfect intelligence system provides the greatest potential to meet the United States' counterproliferation …

An Analytical Framework For Assessing Future Force Structure Requirements Under Uncertainty, Michael L. Fredley

Theses and Dissertations

The objective of this research was to develop an analytical framework to assess future force structure requirements under the major uncertainties inherent in the post-Cold War era. Among the uncertainties are the frequency and nature of future threats to U.S. interests and the cost of maintaining, building, and demobilizing forces. The centerpiece of the methodology is a computer model which simulates the development of threats to U.S. interests and the actions the U.S. takes to protect those interests. From this simulation, the costs and risks associated with different policy alternatives can be estimated. The simulation is set within a broader …

A Methodology For Comparing The Value Of Competing Afmc Manpower Allocation Strategies, Sandra K. Smith

Theses and Dissertations

This research effort develops a methodology for Air Force Materiel Command (AFMC) decision makers to use during mandated resource allocation exercises for comparing competing manpower allocation strategies. A value model is used to represent the hierarchical objectives of the command, with the primary objective being the attainment of maximum mission effectiveness in the face of constrained resources. Value model decomposition is patterned according to the command's organizational structure. Scoring functions derived using direct assessment survey techniques capture the relationship between manpower and mission effectiveness for lowest level organizations. An additive value function represents the model mathematically; the primary objective value …

The Effect Of Repeatedly Sampling An Embedded Metamodel On The Simulation Response, John Kent Patterson

Theses and Dissertations

This study investigated the effect on simulation output of repeatedly sampling an embedded metamodel. A metamodel is said to be embedded within a simulation if it is used to replace a submodule of that simulation. Replacing a deterministic module with an embedded deterministic metamodel poses no apparent mathematical problems. However, using a deterministic metamodel to replace a stochastic simulation component could require additional corrective actions. This research was performed in two phases. The first phase dealt with a set of tandem queues. It was shown that as each queue was sequentially replaced with a metamodel, the total system variance was …

Patient-Aircraft Forecasting For The Strategic Aeromedical Evacuation "Lift-Bed Process", Donald F. Kimminau

Theses and Dissertations

The goal of this research is to develop a tool for the Global Patient Movement Requirements Center (GPMRC) to efficiently forecast Aeromedical Evacuation (AE) aircraft and schedule patients in the lift-bed process. During a contingency, GPMRC is responsible for requesting required airlift, and providing lift-bed candidates to the Theater Patient Movement Requirements Center. The objective is to evacuate all waiting patients while minimizing the number of C-141 aircraft which must be dedicated to the AE mission. In the solution process, a short-term forecast of patient movement requirements is input, including number of patients, bed and aircraft availability, and hub preferences. …

Modeling Corps Artillery In A Theater Level Combat Model, Richard F. Bowyer

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis describes the development of a methodology to explicitly model corps artillery assets in the Joint Staff's Joint Stochastic Analysis Research (J-STOCHWAR) and to quantify Army doctrine that guides organization of artillery for combat. The methodology incorporates corps artillery into the J-STOCHWAR by using the five fundamentals for organizing for combat, which reflect Army doctrine, and combines them with basic concepts already used in existing theater-level models. Other aspects of the problem include determining the appropriate level of detail, identifying techniques to solve the problem, and verifying the results. The proposed decision analysis solution technique provides a feasible method …

A New Goodness-Of-Fit Test For The Gamma Distribution Based On Sample Spacings From Complete And Censored Samples, Huseyin Duman

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis studies a new goodness-of-fit test for the gamma distribution with known shape parameter. This test statistic, Z*, is based on spacings from complete or censored samples. The size of samples varied between 5 and 35. The critical value tables were generated for the Z* test statistic for complete and censored samples. The critical values were obtained for five different significance levels: 0.20 0.15, 0.10, 0.05, and 0.01. An extensive power study, containing 50,000 Monte Carlo runs was conducted using nine alternative distributions, H_a. It was observed that the Z* test statistic was more powerful against certain …

Dynamic Maintenance Scheduling For A Stochastic Telecommunication Network: Determination Of Performance Factors, Todd S. Patterson

Theses and Dissertations

This research proposes an analytical approach to access the relationship between maintenance facility location and communication network performance measurement using a selected dynamic maintenance scheduling protocol. There were three objectives established for this effort. The first objective was the determination of an upper-bound upon the level of performance for a telecommunication network using dynamically scheduled maintenance to evaluate maintenance depot location. This was achieved by using a two-stage algorithm, first locate a maintenance depot by using stochastic algorithms, and then to measure the resulting impact upon performance with a multi-commodity network flow model. The second objective was to develop the …

Estimation Of The Captive-Carry Survival Function For The Advanced Medium Range Air-To-Air Missile (Amraam), David R. Denhard

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis considers the problem of estimating the survival function of an item (probability that the item functions for a time greater than a given time t) from sampling data subject to partial right censoring (a portion of the items in the sampling data have not yet been observed to fail). Specifically the thesis describes several parametric and non-parametric statistical models that can be used when the sampling data is subject to partial right censoring. These models are applied to the case of estimating the captive-carry survival function of the AIM-120A Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM).

Modified Goodness-Of-Fit Tests For The Inverse Gaussian Distribution With Two Unknown Parameter, Huseyin Gunes

Theses and Dissertations

Modified Kolmogorov- Smirnov (KS), Anderson-Darling (AD), Cramer-von Mises (CV), Kupier (V), and Watson (W) goodness-of-fit tests are generated for the inverse Gaussian distribution with unknown parameters. The inverse Gaussian parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood estimation. A Monte Carlo simulation of 50,000 repetitions is used to generate critical values for sample sizes of 5 through 50 with an increment of five, sample sizes of 60 through 100 with an increment of 10, and 24 different values of the inverse Gaussian shape parameter. A 50,000-repetition Monte Carlo power study is carried out using data with sample sizes of 5 through 100 …

Identification Of Success Factors In The Implementation Of Computer-Integrated Manufacturing, Dean Harold Jensen

Dissertations and Theses @ UNI

The review of recent literature showed a clear trend within the manufacturing sector toward the integration of design and production activities through increased application of the computer. The competitive advantages of computer integration were reported, as well as increased risk due to the amount of time and capital expended in system implementation. The identification of computer integrated manufacturing (CIM) success factors may reduce this risk.

Prior efforts to identify success factors for other areas of endeavor showed that success factors tended to vary with the four project phases, but were stable over time within a particular phase. More recently, empirical …

Perceived Importance Of Iso 9000 Factors As Indicators Of Quality In Industrial Technology Related Programs At Four-Year State Regional Universities, Floyd L. Olson

Dissertations and Theses @ UNI

Industry has often used a quality standard known as ISO 9000. No evidence has been located demonstrating the applicability of an industrial quality model to a singular academic department. The problem of this study was to determine if the guidelines for ISO 9004-2 could have been considered appropriate for Industrial Technology related programs and how they could have been used to indicate quality within such programs.

The purpose of this study was to seek knowledge relating the importance of ISO 9004-2 guidelines to audit and/or improve the quality management of Industrial Technology related departments at 4-year state regional universities. This …

Investigation Of The Relationship Between Fuel Injection Nozzle Roto Flow And Hydra Flow And The Engine Torque Of A Diesel Engine, Guang Jin

Dissertations and Theses @ UNI

The purpose of this study was to investigate the possibility of reducing diesel engine torque variation by optimizing fuel injection nozzle tip configuration. In order to reduce engine torque variation, test runs were conducted to determine whether fuel injection nozzles affected diesel engine torque. There was a further effort to determine whether a correlation existed between the fuel injection nozzle roto flow and hydra flow, and the engine torque at specified engine speeds.

Engines installed in cotton pickers and tractors were used for this study. Engines, five from the cotton picker and five from the tractor group were chosen randomly …

A Nonlinear Dynamic Method For Supporting Large-Scale Decision-Making In Uncertain Environments, Wayne Woodhams

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This research developed a methodology for supporting decision making by reducing uncertainty in decision environments which are too large, dynamic and complex to be treated by traditional quantitative and simulation techniques. These environments are complex because of the free choice associated with human involvement, and the existence of a large number of interrelated factors which influence the outcomes of the decision process. They are dynamic because the ground rules affecting those interrelationships are constantly changing. Uncertainty cannot be treated probabilistically, since identification of a full set of outcomes and factors of influence is not possible.

The venue for the investigation …

Comparing Traditional Statistical Models With Neural Network Models: The Case Of The Relation Of Human Performance Factors To The Outcomes Of Military Combat, William Oliver Hedgepeth

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Statistics and neural networks are analytical methods used to learn about observed experience. Both the statistician and neural network researcher develop and analyze data sets, draw relevant conclusions, and validate the conclusions. They also share in the challenge of creating accurate predictions of future events with noisy data.

Both analytical methods are investigated. This is accomplished by examining the veridicality of both with real system data. The real system used in this project is a database of 400 years of historical military combat. The relationships among the variables represented in this database are recognized as being hypercomplex and nonlinear.

The …