Engineering Commons^™

Modeling Portfolios Of Low Carbon Energy Generation Under Deep Uncertainty, Franklyn Kanyako

Doctoral Dissertations

In the 2015 Paris Agreement, nearly every country pledge through the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) increased adoption of low carbon energy technologies in their energy system. However, allocating investments to different low carbon energy technologies under rising demand for energy and budget constraints, uncertain technical change in these technologies involves maneuvering significant uncertainties among experts, models, and decision-makers. We examine the interactions of low carbon energy sources (LCES) under the condition of deep uncertainty. Deep uncertainty directly impacts the understanding of the role of low carbon energy technologies in climate change mitigation and how much R&D investment should be allocated …

Time-Dependent Reliability Methodologies With Saddlepoint Approximation, Zhangli Hu

Doctoral Dissertations

"Engineers always encounter time-dependent uncertainties that ubiquitously exist, such as the random deterioration of material properties and time-variant loads. Therefore the reliability of engineering systems becomes time-dependent. It is crucial to predict the time-dependent reliability in the design stage, given possible catastrophic consequences of a failure. Although extensive research has been conducted on reliability analysis, estimating the reliability accurately and efficiently is still challenging. The objective of this work is to develop accurate and efficient reliability methodologies for engineering design. The basic idea is the integration of traditional reliability methods with saddlepoint approximation (SPA), which can accurately approximate the tail …

Methods For Incorporating Ecological Impacts With Climate Uncertainty To Support Robust Flood Management Decision-Making, Caitlin M. Spence

Doctoral Dissertations

Modern and historic flood risk management involves accommodating multiple sources of sources of uncertainty and potential impacts across a broad range of interrelated sectors. Sources of uncertainty that affect planning include internal climate variability, anthropogenic changes such as land use and system performance expectations, and more recently changes in climatology that affect the resources supporting the system. Flood management systems potentially impact human settlements within and beyond the systems’ scope of planning, local weather patterns, and associated ecological systems. Federal guidelines across nations have called for greater consideration of uncertainty and impacts of water resources planning projects, but methods for …

Predictive Modeling Of Riverine Constituent Concentrations And Loads Using Historic And Imposed Hydrologic Conditions, Mark Hagemann

Doctoral Dissertations

This research was principally concerned with the task of quantifying dissolved and suspended constituents carried in river water when direct measurements are not available. This is a question of scientific and societal relevance, and one with a long history of study and a great deal of remaining difficulty. The traditional approach to estimating these quantities, linear regression models (LMs), suffers from poor flexibility and high subsequent bias in many applications. This research applied semiparametric generalized additive models (GAMs), a more flexible class of regression models, evaluated their performance in various locations and conditions, and applied them in a proactive modeling …

Efficient Time-Dependent System Reliability Analysis, Zhifu Zhu

Doctoral Dissertations

"Engineering systems are usually subjected to time-variant loads and operate under time-dependent uncertainty; system performances are therefore time-dependent. Accurate and efficient estimate of system reliability is crucial for decision makings on system design, lifetime cost estimate, maintenance strategy, etc. Although significant progresses have been made in time-independent reliability analysis for components and systems, time-dependent system reliability methodologies are still limited. This dissertation is motivated by the need of accurate and effective reliability prediction for engineering systems under time-dependent uncertainty. Based on the classic First and Second Order Reliability Method (FORM and SORM), a system reliability method is developed for multidisciplinary …

Essays On The Quantification And Propagation Of Uncertainty In Climate Change Impact Assessments For Water Resource Systems, Scott Steinschneider

Doctoral Dissertations

Sustainable water resources planning and management under climate change requires a proper treatment of uncertainties that emerge in an impacts analysis. A primary source of this uncertainty originates from the difficulties in projecting how anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will evolve over time and influence the climate system at regional and local scales. However, other sources of uncertainty, such as errors in modeling hydrologic response to climate and the influences of internal climate variability, compound the effects of climate change uncertainty and further obscure our understanding of water resources performance under future climate conditions. This work presents an approach to quantify …

Generation Scheduling For Power Systems With Demand Response And A High Penetration Of Wind Energy, Guodong Liu

Doctoral Dissertations

With renewable energy sources and demand response programs expanding in many power systems, traditional unit commitment and economic dispatch approaches are inadequate. The power system is changing to one where there is control with uncertainty for both generation and load. Alternative power system scheduling methods capable of aggregating the uncertainty of wind power and demand response, while maintaining reliable and economic performance are investigated in this work. The research addresses four aspects of these changes.

First, a probabilistic method is proposed to maintain uniform system reliability level in the hour-ahead economic dispatch by quantifying different levels of required spinning reserve. …

Studies Of Economics And Stability With Variable Generation And Controllable Load, Hao Huang

Doctoral Dissertations

This work probes several aspects of the renewable resources and controllable loads. The investigation includes the impact of wind power in bidding process in a deregulated power market, the effect of load damping elements on power system frequency stability and security, and impact of controllable load on system operation from the viewpoint of economic volatility and physical security.

In the first part, new bidding models are developed under two schemes for wind generation to analyze the competition among generation companies (GENCOs) with transmission constraints considered. The proposed method employs the supply function equilibrium (SFE) to model a GENCO’s bidding strategy. …

Probabilistic Engineering Analysis And Design Under Time-Dependent Uncertainty, Zhen Hu

Doctoral Dissertations

"Time-dependent uncertainties, such as time-variant stochastic loadings and random deterioration of material properties, are inherent in engineering applications. Not considering these uncertainties in the design process may result in catastrophic failures after the designed products are put into operation. Although significant progress has been made in probabilistic engineering design, quantifying and mitigating the effects of time-dependent uncertainty is still challenging. This dissertation aims to help build high reliability into products under time-dependent uncertainty by addressing two research issues. The first one is to efficiently and accurately predict the time-dependent reliability while the second one is to effectively design the time-dependent …