Engineering Commons^™

An Investigation In Construction Cost Estimation Using A Monte Carlo Simulation, Jeffrey D. Buchholtz

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force estimates military construction (MILCON) costs early in a project’s development as a part of the funding approval process. However, many of the initial cost estimates deviate significantly more than expected from the actual project costs, hindering funding allocation efforts. There is a need for improved estimation techniques. This research examines a cost estimation model for the initial programming stages of a project when only general scope information is available.

This study develops a Monte Carlo simulation based on historical construction cost data to predict project costs base on facility type. For a given facility type, the research …

Forensic Schedule Analysis Of Construction Delay In Military Projects In The Middle East, James W. Forbes

Theses and Dissertations

This research performs forensic schedule analysis of delay factors that impacted recent large-scale military construction projects in the Middle East. The purpose of this study is to understand the most significant causes of project delay and how AFCEC might improve schedule management performance. The methodologies for analysis are adapted from the Professional Practice Guide to Forensic Schedule Analysis, particularly Method 3.7 Modeled/Additive/Multiple Base, or Time Impacted Analysis—Adjusted. The data is gathered from USACE and AFCEC, consisting of Primavera project schedules and project documents from the Resident Management System database. The project delays from two large-scale projects are apportioned as compensable, …

Mission Dependency Index Of Air Force Built Infrastructure: Knowledge Discovery With Machine Learning, Clark W. Smith

Theses and Dissertations

Mission Dependency Index (MDI) is a metric developed to capture the relative criticality of infrastructure assets with respect to organizational missions. The USAF adapted the MDI metric from the United States Navy’s MDI methodology. Unlike the Navy’s MDI data collection process, the USAF adaptation of the MDI metric employs generic facility category codes (CATCODEs) to assign MDI values. This practice introduces uncertainty into the MDI assignment process with respect to specific missions and specific infrastructure assets. The uncertainty associated with USAF MDI values necessitated the MDI adjudication process. The MDI adjudication process provides a mechanism for installation civil engineer personnel …

An Economic Analysis Of The Transition Of A Contingency Military Installation To An Enduring Status Using Monte Carlo Simulations, Ryan M. Amedee

Theses and Dissertations

The construction of expeditionary bases is central to Department of Defense’s (DoD) responses to contingency operations. Usually expected to be transitory, expeditionary bases are constructed with temporary materials that can be erected quickly. The Global War on Terrorism is entering its fifteenth year and bases within Central Command that were expected to be temporary have provided an enduring presence. The decision to transition a base from temporary to semi-permanent or permanent is difficult, as it requires substantial capital investment for facility construction. This decision is further complicated by unknown mission durations. The DoD has attempted to reduce the decision’s complexity …