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Full-Text Articles in Engineering
Technological Forecasting Of Supercomputer Development: The March To Exascale Computing, Dong-Joon Lim, Timothy R. Anderson, Tom Shott
Technological Forecasting Of Supercomputer Development: The March To Exascale Computing, Dong-Joon Lim, Timothy R. Anderson, Tom Shott
Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations
Advances in supercomputers have come at a steady pace over the past 20 years. The next milestone is to build an Exascale computer however this requires not only speed improvement but also significant enhancements for energy efficiency and massive parallelism. This paper examines technological progress of supercomputer development to identify the innovative potential of three leading technology paths toward Exascale development: hybrid system, multicore system and manycore system. Performance measurement and rate of change calculation were made by Technology Forecasting using Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA.) The results indicate that the current level of technology and rate of progress can achieve …
Choosing Effective Dates From Multiple Optima In Technology Forecasting Using Data Envelopment Analysis (Tfdea), Dong-Joon Lim, Timothy R. Anderson, Oliver Inman
Choosing Effective Dates From Multiple Optima In Technology Forecasting Using Data Envelopment Analysis (Tfdea), Dong-Joon Lim, Timothy R. Anderson, Oliver Inman
Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations
Technology Forecasting using Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA) provides an effective means to forecast technological capability over time without the burden of fixed a priori weighting schemes. However, there are situations where result reproduction can be a challenge as first pointed out in a previous Technological Forecasting and Social Change article. When using a commonly used extension of TFDEA, there are circumstances where multiple optimal solutions can complicate analysis. This paper addresses this issue through extending the TFDEA model in a manner consistent with common Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) techniques. The extension is then demonstrated using datasets from previous publications on …
Improving Forecast Accuracy By A Segmented Rate Of Change In Technology Forecasting Using Data Envelopment Analysis (Tfdea), Dong-Joon Lim, Timothy R. Anderson
Improving Forecast Accuracy By A Segmented Rate Of Change In Technology Forecasting Using Data Envelopment Analysis (Tfdea), Dong-Joon Lim, Timothy R. Anderson
Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations
Technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) captures technological advancement from the evolution of the state-of-the-art (SOA) frontier. Within this process, TFDEA combines rates of changes (RoC) from past technologies that have been superseded by superior technologies. However, it was occasionally observed in previous applications that forecasting based on a single aggregated RoC did not consider the unique growth patterns of each technology segment, which resulted in a conservative or aggressive forecasting. This study proposes a procedure to improve the forecasting accuracy by identifying local rates of change for each frontier segment that may represent different product families. This approach …