Engineering Commons^™

Exploring Technology Forecasting And Its Implications For Strategic Technology Planning, Yonghee Cho

Dissertations and Theses

As the importance of R&D has been growing in economic growth, the accountability and effectiveness of R&D programs are highly emphasized. Especially, in times of economic downturn, the evaluation of performance in a firm is needed to justify R&D investment. In response, various attempts have been made to improve success rates of R&D projects, gain competitive advantage, and achieve a firm's growth in profitability. In particular, in industries where technological innovation is significant, strategic technology planning and R&D capabilities may be the lead ones in defining the dynamic capabilities of a firm. In addition, technology forecasting (TF) in technology planning …

Managing Technology Push Through Marketing Testbeds: The Case Of The Hi-Tech Center In Vienna, Austria, Rainer Hasenauer, Charles M. Weber, Peter Filo, Jozef Orgonáš

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

The ‘technology push’ approach to technology development rests on the assumption that if you make it, they will come. This assumption carries significant market risk. The technology may miss its intended market window, or the market that was anticipated at the inception of technology development no longer exists at the time of market release. This paper discusses how the Hi Tech Center in Vienna, Austria, a multi national collaborative effort between industry and universities in Central Europe, helps its clients manage technology push by deploying the marketing testbed approach. After identifying lead users for a client’s technology, it characterizes and …

Financial Analysis And Comparison Of Compact Electric And Gasoline Cars, Jing Jiang, Alexander Blank, Felix Maier, Anjan Bharthepudi

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

In the paper, a PESTLE (political, economic, social, technical, legal, and environmental) analysis is used to conduct an initial evaluation for electric vehicles (EV) and gasoline cars. Furthermore, two cash flow models are created to describe the scenarios of both gasoline and electric car respectively. Based upon the proposed models, the equivalent uniform annual cost (EUAC) methodology is used to calculate the cost during the period of car ownership. Four compact EVs and five compact gasoline cars are selected in the analysis. The results expose that the actual return of federal tax credit impacts the EUAC value. The 50% return …

Multiple Objective Evolution Strategies Using Data Envelopment Analysis, James V. Lill, Timothy R. Anderson

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Often in science and engineering we are faced with complicated nonlinear problems in optimization that involve simultaneously minimizing or maximizing various non-commensurate quantities. For example, a basic task in design engineering or technology management is to balance suitable measures of performance against the cost. We present a simplified approach for performing multiple objective optimization by combining standard single objective Evolution Strategies with Data Envelopment Analysis. This latter method employs linear programming to compute an L1 distance of a given solution from the Pareto frontier defined by the evolving population of solutions, or from a related frontier defined by DEA. This …

Developing Strategic Decision Making Process For Product And Service Planning, Yonghee Cho

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

It is imperative to forecast advanced or emerging technologies to aid in decision making on firm's R&D investments and business plan for commercialization efforts. Even though a company must align R&D planning with overall business planning such as manufacturing, sales and marketing, personnel, and finance, systematic management approaches are limited in it based upon the prediction of technological change and speed. This paper aims to provide a decision support tool to aid in strategic service planning and technology development in a firm. The study is to enhance strategic development of service and product with the consideration of emerging technologies. This …

A Study Of The U.S. Intrastate Crowdfunding Exemptions, Ahmed Bohliqa

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

The enactment of intrastate crowdfunding exemptions around the United States has built up a lot of excitement. Crowdfunding became a popular phenomenon in the past 15 years for art and design projects. Crowdfunding companies only allowed raising money by receiving donations or loans without giving funders any security interests in the project's company. This is because any potential economic return could turn the transaction into a securities offering subject to the costly federal and state laws and regulations. Nonetheless, crowdfunding has been effective in enabling new innovations and ideas bloom. Intrastate securities crowdfunding might prove to be one of the …

Applying Triz And Bass Model To Forecast Fitness Tracking Devices Technology, Sowmini Sengupta, Jisun Kim, Seong Dae Kim

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

65% of the world’s population lives in countries where overweight and obesity kills more people than those who are underweight. Healthcare organizations, private corporations and individuals are investing in proactive health and weight management. Advances in sensor technologies have enabled development of affordable wearable technology devices, the most rapid expansion being fitness trackers which entered the market in 2012. This paper describes the application of a combination of TRIZ and Bass modeling to forecast the technology growth projections for fitness trackers. For the TRIZ modeling, the fitness tracking system was divided into three subsystems and each was analyzed per the …

Exploring The Design Factors Of Smart Glasses, Ali Emre Ok, Nuri A. Basoglu, Tugrul U. Daim

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Advances in information technology (IT) have started to focus studies on human computer interaction (HCI) which is an area in computer science embracing cognitive science. In this approach there are various aspects of researches about HCI in order to explore how people design, implement, and use interactive computer systems and how computers affect individuals, organizations, and society. This study represents exploring the adoption factors of smart glasses. Technology adoption process establishes preferences and needs of people who use computers and smart systems. To address this issue, technology adoption is essential for a rapidly changing world where technology has become central …

Forecasting Oled Tv Technology Using Bibliometrics And Fisher-Pry Diffusion Model, Yonghee Cho, Tugrul Unsal Daim, Paul Sklar

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

The market of flat panel displays is experiencing rapid growth with the advancement of digital technologies in broadcasting service. The next challenge of LCD is OLED in TV market. The study attempts to investigate the trends in advanced or emerging technologies by determining their technology diffusion rates due to the lack of experiential data. With the development of information and communication technology, one of the recent methods to assist in technology forecasting is data mining in bibliometric or textual data from various sources such as patents, journals, and research awards. The information extracted from diverse sources can be employed in …

Comparing Technological Advancement Of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (Hev) In Different Market Segments, Dong-Joon Lim, Shabnam Razeghian Jahromi, Timothy R. Anderson, Anca-Alexandra Tudori

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

The Toyota Prius was first introduced in 1997 and since then over 150 hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) have been brought to the automobile market around the world. This was spurred by a major interest in the future of vehicles using ‘alternative fuel’ for addressing environmental and fuel dependency concerns. Based upon previous work1, which identified an input-output model that could successfully explain the progress of HEV technologies, this study evaluates and compares the technological advancement observed in different HEV market segments over the past 15 years. The results indicate that the introduction of a wide range of midsize HEVs is …

Technological Forecasting Of Supercomputer Development: The March To Exascale Computing, Dong-Joon Lim, Timothy R. Anderson, Tom Shott

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Advances in supercomputers have come at a steady pace over the past 20 years. The next milestone is to build an Exascale computer however this requires not only speed improvement but also significant enhancements for energy efficiency and massive parallelism. This paper examines technological progress of supercomputer development to identify the innovative potential of three leading technology paths toward Exascale development: hybrid system, multicore system and manycore system. Performance measurement and rate of change calculation were made by Technology Forecasting using Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA.) The results indicate that the current level of technology and rate of progress can achieve …

Choosing Effective Dates From Multiple Optima In Technology Forecasting Using Data Envelopment Analysis (Tfdea), Dong-Joon Lim, Timothy R. Anderson, Oliver Inman

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Technology Forecasting using Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA) provides an effective means to forecast technological capability over time without the burden of fixed a priori weighting schemes. However, there are situations where result reproduction can be a challenge as first pointed out in a previous Technological Forecasting and Social Change article. When using a commonly used extension of TFDEA, there are circumstances where multiple optimal solutions can complicate analysis. This paper addresses this issue through extending the TFDEA model in a manner consistent with common Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) techniques. The extension is then demonstrated using datasets from previous publications on …

Improving Forecast Accuracy By A Segmented Rate Of Change In Technology Forecasting Using Data Envelopment Analysis (Tfdea), Dong-Joon Lim, Timothy R. Anderson

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) captures technological advancement from the evolution of the state-of-the-art (SOA) frontier. Within this process, TFDEA combines rates of changes (RoC) from past technologies that have been superseded by superior technologies. However, it was occasionally observed in previous applications that forecasting based on a single aggregated RoC did not consider the unique growth patterns of each technology segment, which resulted in a conservative or aggressive forecasting. This study proposes a procedure to improve the forecasting accuracy by identifying local rates of change for each frontier segment that may represent different product families. This approach …

Technology Forecasting Of Digital Single-Lens Reflex Camera Market: The Impact Of Segmentation In Tfdea, Byung Sung Yoon, Apisit Charoensupyanan, Nan Hu, Rachanida Koosawangsri, Mimie Abdulai, Xiaowen Wang

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

With the advancement of digital image technology, the big change in the camera market is that digital single-lens reflex cameras (DSLRs) have replaced film type single-lens reflex cameras, which have seen very little development lately. This advancement is reflected in some core technologies of DSLRs such as digital image sensors and electronic shutter mechanisms, which have allowed taking photographs even in the toughest conditions. Therefore, as a disruptive technology, the developments in DSLR technologies are worthy of notice.

This paper utilizes technology forecast using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA), which is a quantitative forecasting method. In the study, we use input …

Incorporating Value Judgment In Technology Forecasting Using Data Envelopment Analysis, Dong-Joon Lim, Timothy R. Anderson

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Technology Forecasting using Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA) has been employed to a wide range of applications because of its ability to model complex tradeoffs. The very name indicates that it is based on Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) which has strength that it doesn?t require fixed a priori weighting scheme. Instead, it adopts dynamic weighting scheme that each data point can choose their best possible weights. However, it is well known that this flexibility may result in extreme weights that may be considered unrealistic in certain applications and has been one subject of DEA researches. This paper extends the standard TFDEA …

Forecasting Microprocessor Technology In The Multicore Era Using Tfdea, Saranya Durairajan, Maria Ibarra Prado, Noshad Rahimi, Shabnam Razeghian Jahromi

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Technological advancements in the microprocessor industry are benchmarked and gauged against a set of diverse criteria, specific to the fabrication process, usage as well as achieved performance. Changing trends in the appeal factor as well as wide variety of growing application of microprocessors in different industries also have a defining impact in the advancement of the technological features in future. This study improves the previous investigation in forecasting microprocessors? technology and uses Technology Forecasting using Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA) methodology for an enhanced model. The study takes advantage of the recent microprocessor dataset including multi core processors, from a variety …

Forecast Of Wireless Communication Technology: A Comparative Study Of Regression And Tfdea Model, Dong-Joon Lim, Timothy R. Anderson, Jisun Kim

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

This study presents a formal comparison of TFDEA with regression model to forecast wireless communication technology. In addition to the data set from the former research, up-to-2011 4G network technologies are added and analyzed. The research was designed to set the point of forecasting in 2001 so that technologies between 2001 and 2011 are to be forecasted using data set between 1979 and 2001. The results from both TFDEA and regression model are compared and discussed. This comparative study can provide forecasters with different aspects between 'best-practice measurement' and 'average practice measurement' and, ultimately, help to select the suitable approach …

Patent Analysis For Smart Grid Development In The U.S, Abrahim Abdulsater, Bahareh Saatchi, Farshad Madani

Engineering and Technology Management Student Projects

By increasing demand for energy among nations the rate of fossil fuel consumption is boosting. The raise of fossil fuel consumption has motivated nations to gain some capabilities for the purpose of dealing with some consequences; the more fossil fuel consumption, the higher price for energy, and the higher rate of GHG as well. Recently smart grid technology has been introduced as a healing approach in terms of using energy more efficiently. This study made an effort to have some discussions around smart grid technology development in the United States by patent analysis and forecasting. The outcomes in both technology …

An Introduction To Technology Forecasting With A Tfdea Excel Add-In, Dong-Joon Lim, Timothy R. Anderson

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper describes an Excel add-in program that can run TFDEA (Technology Forecasting using Data Envelopment Anlaysis) within the spreadsheet. It utilizes freely available statistical software R and its packages developed by Statconn. This add-in allows access to both user-friendly tools for data manipulation in spreadsheet available and the power and precision of the results via R.

R&D Target-Setting Difficulties Addressed Through Emergent Method: Technology Forecasting Using Data Envelopment Analysis, Ann-Marie Lamb, Timothy R. Anderson, Tugrul Unsal Daim

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

The aim of this study is to provide a foundation for researchers and managers to further discuss and resolve difficulties associated with R&D target-setting. While multiple studies mention the difficulty of R&D target-setting, few studies exist which compile reasons for these difficulties; nor do they address this issue in any detail. This paper provides what appears to be one of the first studies outlining reasons for R&D target-setting difficulties through a literature review; then also provides an initial set of analyses and results after applying an emerging quantitative method, Technology Forecasting Using Data Envelopment Analysis (TFDEA) addressing these difficulties, step-by-step …

A Look Into The Future Of Wireless Mobile Communication Technologies, Jisun Kim, Tugrul Unsal Daim, Timothy R. Anderson

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

The number of wireless mobile communication service subscribers has reached 4.6 billion worldwide in 2009, and mobile revenues are expected to be over $1 trillion around 2012 according to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) (ITU, 2010). A significant number of studies have been done to forecast the growing market and evaluate the new generation technology, the Beyond 3 Generation (B3G). However, there is no study forecasting when any of these new technologies will be commercialized. This paper presents a technical framework for forecasting the commercialization timeline of B3G technologies and provides insight on technology trajectories from 1G to 4G. The …

Technology Forecasting For Wireless Communication, Timothy R. Anderson, Tugrul Unsal Daim, Jisun Kim

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Wireless communications technologies have undergone rapid changes over the last 30 years from analog approaches to digital-based systems. These technologies have improved on many fronts including bandwidth, range, and power requirements. Development of new telecommunications technologies is critical. It requires many years of efforts. In order to be competitive, it is critical to establish a roadmap of future technologies. This paper presents a framework to characterize, assess and forecast the wireless communication technologies. A DEA-based methodology was used for predicting the state-of-the-art in future wireless communications technologies.

Predicting U.S. Jet Fighter Aircraft Introductions From 1944 To 1982: A Dogfight Between Regression And Tfdea, Lane Inman, Timothy R. Anderson, Robert R. Harmon

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Since its inception in 2001, technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) has been used with a number of applications. This paper presents a formal comparison of TFDEA to a previously published application from Technological Forecasting and Social Change by Joseph Martino. Using the data and Martino’s multiple regression model, we compare results obtained from TFDEA to those previously published. Both techniques predict the first flights of fighter jets introduced between 1960 and 1982 by using the first flights of aircraft introduced between 1944 and 1960. TFDEA was found to better predict the first flight dates than the forecast using …

Measuring The Changing Capabilities Of Computer Display Projectors Using Tfdea, Supachart Iamratanakul, Timothy R. Anderson, Lane Inman

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper applies technological forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) to computer display projector (CDP) technology. The objective is to analyze the technological change CDP products. The results indicate that the rate of technological change for CDP technology is accelerating, which is consistent with an understanding of the industry. A methodological issue of infeasibility is described and methods for dealing with it are presented. Future work may extend to examine over additional years and product releases.

Technology Forecasting Using Data Envelopment Analysis, Oliver Lane Inman

Dissertations and Theses

The ability to anticipate future capabilities of technology products has broad implications for organizations. Technological forecasting allows management to improve resource allocation, make better staffing decisions, and more confidently plan facilities and capital expenditures. Technology forecasting may also identify potential new markets and opportunities, such as finding ways to exploit current technology beyond its originally intended purposes.

Modern technology forecasters use an array of forecasting methods to predict the future performance of a technology, such as time-series analysis, regression, stochastic methods, and simulation. These quantitative methods rely on the assumption that past behavior will continue. Shortcomings include their lack of …

Tfdea: A New Approach For Technology Forecasting Of New Product Development Targets, Lane Inman, Timothy R. Anderson

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Presentation delivered at the Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET ?04), focusing on use of data envelopment analysis for technology forecasting.

Further Examination Of Moore's Law With Data Envelopment Analysis, Timothy R. Anderson, Rolf Färe, Shawna Grosskopf, Lane Inman, Xiaoyu Song

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Although it has stood the test of time for over 30 years, Moore's Law addresses but a single aspect of microprocessor design. As a proxy for technology, the number of transistors in an integrated circuit represents a limited perspective on the technology as a whole. Anderson et al. proposed a set of metrics by which to measure a technology, and a means to measure its progress over time utilizing data envelopment analysis. In this revised model, the assumption of state of the art (SOA) on product release is dropped, technical progress is measured iteratively over time, the effective time elapsed …