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Full-Text Articles in Engineering
Online Bus Speed Prediction With Spatiotemporal Interaction: A Laplace Approximation-Based Bayesian Approach, Haipeng Cui, Kun Xie, Bin Hu, Hangfei Lin
Online Bus Speed Prediction With Spatiotemporal Interaction: A Laplace Approximation-Based Bayesian Approach, Haipeng Cui, Kun Xie, Bin Hu, Hangfei Lin
Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications
This study proposes a novel Bayesian hierarchical approach for online bus speed prediction by explicitly accounting for the spatiotemporal interaction (STI) of speed observations. The use of Laplace approximation can expedite the estimation of Bayesian models and enable the implementation of online prediction. Large numbers of trials are carried out to identify significant predictors and the optimal length of the look-back time window to achieve the highest prediction accuracy. The spatiotemporal interacting patterns are also explored, and results show that the Type IV model assuming the structured spatial effect interacts with the structured temporal effect can best accommodate the bus …
Reliability Estimation Of Reciprocating Seals Based On Multivariate Dependence Analysis And It's Experimental Validation, Chao Zhang, Rentong Chen, Shaoping Wang, Yujie Qian, Mileta M. Tomovic
Reliability Estimation Of Reciprocating Seals Based On Multivariate Dependence Analysis And It's Experimental Validation, Chao Zhang, Rentong Chen, Shaoping Wang, Yujie Qian, Mileta M. Tomovic
Engineering Technology Faculty Publications
Accurate reliability estimation for reciprocating seals is of great significance due to their wide use in numerous engineering applications. This work proposes a reliability estimation method for reciprocating seals based on multivariate dependence analysis of different performance indicators. Degradation behavior corresponding to each performance indicator is first described by the Wiener process. Dependence among different performance indicators is then captured using D-vine copula, and a weight-based copula selection method is utilized to determine the optimal bivariate copula for each dependence relationship. A two-stage Bayesian method is used to estimate the parameters in the proposed model. Finally, a reciprocating seal degradation …