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Risk Analysis

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2021

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Articles 1 - 17 of 17

Full-Text Articles in Engineering

Sino-Indian Border Disputes In An Era Of Strategic Expansions, Roman Muzalevsky Nov 2021

Sino-Indian Border Disputes In An Era Of Strategic Expansions, Roman Muzalevsky

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The June 2020 clash between the People’s Republic of China and India in the disputed Ladakh border area resulted from the strategic expansions of both powers. Like two bubbles expanding in a contained space, these expansions were bound to collide and cause friction. This article explains how the expansions precipitated the incident and might exacerbate border disputes in the future. In pondering implications, it recommends Washington pursue a Eurasia-focused policy embracing the disputed region.


On “The Us Army And The Pacific: Challenges And Legacies”, Brian Mcallister Linn Nov 2021

On “The Us Army And The Pacific: Challenges And Legacies”, Brian Mcallister Linn

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

This commentary responds to David M. Finkelstein’s article, “The US Army and the Pacific: Challenges and Legacies,” published in the Autumn 2020 issue of Parameters (vol. 50, no. 3).


The Air Littoral: Another Look, Maximilian K. Bremer, Kelly A. Grieco Nov 2021

The Air Littoral: Another Look, Maximilian K. Bremer, Kelly A. Grieco

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Assessing threats to the air littoral, the airspace between ground forces and high-end fighters and bombers, requires a paradigm change in American military thinking about verticality. This article explores the consequences of domain convergence, specifically for the Army and Air Force’s different concepts of control. It will assist US military and policy practitioners in conceptualizing the air littoral and in thinking more vertically about the air and land domains and the challenges of domain convergence.


Patient Transport In The Time Of Covid-19: Using Health Care Failure Mode And Effect Analysis With Simulation To Test And Modify A Protocol, John Kwock, Jeffrey Holmes, Shelly Chipman, Erin Siebers, Angela Berry, Sonja Orff, Victoria Boutin, Leah Mallory Aug 2021

Patient Transport In The Time Of Covid-19: Using Health Care Failure Mode And Effect Analysis With Simulation To Test And Modify A Protocol, John Kwock, Jeffrey Holmes, Shelly Chipman, Erin Siebers, Angela Berry, Sonja Orff, Victoria Boutin, Leah Mallory

Journal of Maine Medical Center

Introduction: In March 2020, in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, an interprofessional, interdisciplinary team at Maine Medical Center used Healthcare Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (HFMEA) and in situ simulation to rapidly identify and mitigate latent safety threats (LST) in patient transport protocols.

Methods: Following HFMEA steps, stakeholders representing a variety of disciplines assembled to address transport of patients with COVID-19. A process map was created to describe the process. With hazard analysis using table-top simulation followed by in situ simulation, we identified, categorized, and scored LSTs. Mitigation strategies were identified during structured debriefing.

Results: Fourteen LSTs were identified in …


Hope Versus Reality: The Efficacy Of Using Us Military Aid To Improve Human Rights In Egypt, Gregory L. Aftandilian Aug 2021

Hope Versus Reality: The Efficacy Of Using Us Military Aid To Improve Human Rights In Egypt, Gregory L. Aftandilian

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Using US military aid as a lever to achieve human rights reforms has proven only marginally effective. This article examines the approaches employed by the Obama and Trump administrations to US military aid to Egypt and proposes practical steps that can be taken by policymakers and the military personnel on the ground to advance US human rights values.


Book Reviews, Usawc Press Aug 2021

Book Reviews, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.


The Battalion Commander Effect, Everett Spain, Gautam Mukunda, Archie Bates Aug 2021

The Battalion Commander Effect, Everett Spain, Gautam Mukunda, Archie Bates

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Statistical evidence suggests Army battalion commanders are significant determinants of the retention of their lieutenants—especially high-potential lieutenants. Further, this so-called Battalion Commander Effect should be included in brigadier general promotion board assessments and used to inform officer professional military education curricula.


The Evolution Of Hybrid Warfare: Implications For Strategy And The Military Profession, Ilmari Käihkö Aug 2021

The Evolution Of Hybrid Warfare: Implications For Strategy And The Military Profession, Ilmari Käihkö

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The concept of hybrid war has evolved from operational-level use of military means and methods in war toward strategic-level use of nonmilitary means in a gray zone below the threshold of war. This article considers this evolution and its implications for strategy and the military profession by contrasting past and current use of the hybrid war concept and raising critical questions for policy and military practitioners.


Great (Soft) Power Competition: Us And Chinese Efforts In Global Health Engagement, Michael W. Wissemann Aug 2021

Great (Soft) Power Competition: Us And Chinese Efforts In Global Health Engagement, Michael W. Wissemann

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Global health engagement, an underutilized strategy rooted in the strengths of soft power persuasion, can lead to more military-to-military cooperation training, help establish relationships that can be relied on when crises develop, stabilize fragile states, and deny violent extremist organizations space for recruiting and operations. Examining Chinese efforts worldwide to curry favor and influence and the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, this article shows health as a medium is a very compelling and advantageous whole-of-government approach to national security policy concerns.


Assessing Risk At The National Strategic Level: Visualization Tools For Military Planners, Wade A. Germann, Heather S. Gregg Aug 2021

Assessing Risk At The National Strategic Level: Visualization Tools For Military Planners, Wade A. Germann, Heather S. Gregg

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The reemergence of great power competition, conflict with near-peer competitor states below the level of armed conflict, and persisting threats from nonstate actors with transnational ambitions and global reach pose challenges for strategists planning, executing, and assessing military operations and strategy. Building on current visualization tools, two proposed models—the National Strategic Risk Abacus and the National Strategic Risk Radar Chart—address these challenges and better depict how the US military may inadvertently contribute to risk at the national strategic level.


Samuel Huntington, Professionalism, And Self-Policing In The Us Army Officer Corps, Brian Mcallister Linn Aug 2021

Samuel Huntington, Professionalism, And Self-Policing In The Us Army Officer Corps, Brian Mcallister Linn

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Drawing on Samuel P. Huntington’s three phases of self-regulation used to determine if an occupation qualifies as a profession, this article focuses on the third phase of policing and removing those who fail to uphold the standards set forth in the first two phases. It reviews how the US Army implemented this phase following the Civil War through the post–Vietnam War years and the implications for the officer corps.


Gis-Based Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using Logistic Regression, Instability Index, And Support Vector Machine: Case Study Of The Jingshan River, Taiwan, Hsun-Chuan Chan, Yu-Chin Chen, Jung-Tai Lee, Yu-Ting Wen Jul 2021

Gis-Based Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using Logistic Regression, Instability Index, And Support Vector Machine: Case Study Of The Jingshan River, Taiwan, Hsun-Chuan Chan, Yu-Chin Chen, Jung-Tai Lee, Yu-Ting Wen

Journal of Marine Science and Technology

Many techniques have been developed to produce landslide susceptibility maps. However, mapping the spatial distribution of landslide susceptibility involves critical steps. This study evaluated susceptibility to the occurrence of shallow landslides in upstream areas of the Jingshan River, Taiwan, where heavy rainfall has resulted in increased landslide occurrence and reservoir sedimentation. The landslide susceptibility case study was conducted using logistic regression, an instability index method, and support vector machine (SVM). A selection procedure was first developed to identify the factors influencing landslide occurrence. Historical landslide data were used to assess the corresponding parameters of each model. The receiver operating characteristic …


A Work Of Heart Apr 2021

A Work Of Heart

DePaul Magazine

This article looks at the internship opportunities that DePaul students have available to kickstart their career through such programs as DePaul WORKS and INSuRE. Alumni in the museum, education and counseling, cybersecurity, law and public relations fields are interviewed.


Open-Field Scale-Model Experiments Of Fire Whirls Over L-Shaped Line Fires, Yuto Iga, Kazunori Kuwana, Kozo Sekimoto, Yuji Nakamura Feb 2021

Open-Field Scale-Model Experiments Of Fire Whirls Over L-Shaped Line Fires, Yuto Iga, Kazunori Kuwana, Kozo Sekimoto, Yuji Nakamura

Progress in Scale Modeling, an International Journal

This paper presents the results of open-field scale-model experiments of fire-whirl formation over line fires. L-shaped line fires were burned in crosswinds, and the processes of fire-whirl formation were observed. The flame height was measured using an image-processing technique, while two-dimensional velocity components were measured at two different locations using ultrasonic anemometers. Two tests were selected for comparison: test A, in which intense fire whirls repeatedly formed, and test B, in which no whirls were observed. In test A, the wind flow was bent by the fire plume, creating swirling flows near the burning area, thereby forming fire whirls. On …


Effect Of Reduced Plume Entrainment On The Burning Rate Of Porous Fuel Beds, Sara Mcallister Feb 2021

Effect Of Reduced Plume Entrainment On The Burning Rate Of Porous Fuel Beds, Sara Mcallister

Progress in Scale Modeling, an International Journal

Large outdoor fires often exhibit unexpected fire behavior, particularly compared with much smaller fires. Understanding the difference between large- and small-scale fires is of importance for both fire behavior predictions and safety. Large fires are often characterized by very tall plumes that can extend to the stratosphere. Particularly as the actively burning area increases, plumes in large-scale fires likely entrain relatively little and may act in a similar fashion to a chimney. To explore the possible changes in burning rate due to the chimney effect, experiments were conducted with wood cribs burned with a chimney of variable height. The burning …


A Study On Fire Hazards Of Oil Tanks In Urban Areas With Scale Model Experiments, Ho Yin Ng, Yu Wan, Wan Ki Chow Feb 2021

A Study On Fire Hazards Of Oil Tanks In Urban Areas With Scale Model Experiments, Ho Yin Ng, Yu Wan, Wan Ki Chow

Progress in Scale Modeling, an International Journal

Large fuel tanks are located in an urban area of Tsing Yi in Hong Kong, giving potentially high risks to people living nearby if a fire was to occur. Scale modeling experiments were carried out to investigate the potential of fire hazards. Propanol pool fires with five different scales of oil tanks were studied first. Appropriate tank sizes were then put in a 1/2500 architectural scale model on the Tsing Yi Island to study a fuel tank fire. Results show that the heat and smoke from a fire would affect occupants staying in areas near to the fuel tanks. Fire …


Quantum Safety Metrics Framework For Commercial Unmanned Aircraft Operators, Tracy L. Lamb, Nathan A. Phillips, Trong Van Nguyen Jan 2021

Quantum Safety Metrics Framework For Commercial Unmanned Aircraft Operators, Tracy L. Lamb, Nathan A. Phillips, Trong Van Nguyen

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

Commercial unmanned aircraft systems continue to increase in applications and diversity; however, mishaps and accidents erode safety, investment return, and efficiency. Most unmanned aircraft accidents are preceded by leading indicators; the ability to forecast and quantify these may provide increased safety and profitability. This mixed-method research study used a non-experimental parallel convergence approach with multiple instruments, multiple-case study n = 22, and one exemplar case design to develop a quantum safety metric program. This study used a combination of previously validated methods as development instruments, including; the HFACS, STAMP, 'Sierra Scale,' and Accident Prevention Effort equations. The study extended the …