Engineering Commons^™

An Overview Of Elements And Relations: Aspects Of A Scientific Metaphysics, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

A talk on my book, Elements and Relations: Aspects of a Scientific Metaphysics. Book description:

This book develops the core proposition that systems theory is an attempt to construct an “exact and scientific metaphysics,” a system of general ideas central to science that can be expressed mathematically. Collectively, these ideas would constitute a non-reductionist “theory of everything” unlike what is being sought in physics. Inherently transdisciplinary, systems theory offers ideas and methods that are relevant to all of the sciences and also to professional fields such as systems engineering, public policy, business, and social work. To demonstrate the generality …

Systems Thinking Activities Used In K-12 For Up To Two Decades, Diana Fisher, Systems Thinking Association

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Infusing systems thinking activities in pre-college education (grades K-12) means updating precollege education so it includes a study of many systemic behavior patterns that are ubiquitous in the real world. Systems thinking tools include those using both paper and pencil and the computer and enhance learning in the classroom making it more student-centered, more active, and allowing students to analyze problems that have been heretofore beyond the scope of K-12 classrooms. Students in primary school have used behavior over time graphs to demonstrate dynamics described in story books, like the Lorax, and created stock-flow diagrams to describe what was needed …

Machine Learning Predictions Of Electricity Capacity, Marcus Harris, Elizabeth Kirby, Ameeta Agrawal, Rhitabrat Pokharel, Francis Puyleart, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

This research applies machine learning methods to build predictive models of Net Load Imbalance for the Resource Sufficiency Flexible Ramping Requirement in the Western Energy Imbalance Market. Several methods are used in this research, including Reconstructability Analysis, developed in the systems community, and more well-known methods such as Bayesian Networks, Support Vector Regression, and Neural Networks. The aims of the research are to identify predictive variables and obtain a new stand-alone model that improves prediction accuracy and reduces the INC (ability to increase generation) and DEC (ability to decrease generation) Resource Sufficiency Requirements for Western Energy Imbalance Market participants. This …

Data From: Machine Learning Predictions Of Electricity Capacity, Marcus Harris, Elizabeth Kirby, Ameeta Agrawal, Rhitabrat Pokharel, Francis Puyleart, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Datasets

This research applies machine learning methods to build predictive models of Net Load Imbalance for the Resource Sufficiency Flexible Ramping Requirement in the Western Energy Imbalance Market. Several methods are used in this research, including Reconstructability Analysis, developed in the systems community, and more well-known methods such as Bayesian Networks, Support Vector Regression, and Neural Networks. The aims of the research are to identify predictive variables and obtain a new stand-alone model that improves prediction accuracy and reduces the INC (ability to increase generation) and DEC (ability to decrease generation) Resource Sufficiency Requirements for Western Energy Imbalance Market participants. This …

Warming Of The Willamette River, 1850–Present: The Effects Of Climate Change And Direct Human Interventions, Stefan Talke, David Jay, Heida Diefenderfer

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

Using archival research methods, we found and combined data from multiple sources to produce a unique, 140 year record of daily water temperature (Tw) in the lower Willamette River, Oregon (1881–1890, 1941–present). Additional daily weather and river flow records from the 1850s onwards are used to develop and validate a statistical regression model of Tw for 1850–2020. The model simulates the time-lagged response of Tw to air temperature and river flow, and is calibrated for three distinct time periods: the late 19th, mid 20th, and early 21st centuries. Results show that Tw has trended upwards at ~1.1 °C …

System Dynamics Modeling For Traumatic Brain Injury: Mini-Review Of Applications, Erin S. Kenzie, Elle L. Parks, Nancy Carney, Wayne Wakeland

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a highly complex phenomenon involving a cascade of disruptions across biomechanical, neurochemical, neurological, cognitive, emotional, and social systems. Researchers and clinicians urgently need a rigorous conceptualization of brain injury that encompasses nonlinear and mutually causal relations among the factors involved, as well as sources of individual variation in recovery trajectories. System dynamics, an approach from systems science, has been used for decades in fields such as management and ecology to model nonlinear feedback dynamics in complex systems. In this mini-review, we summarize some recent uses of this approach to better understand acute injury mechanisms, recovery …

Reducing Opioid Use Disorder And Overdose Deaths In The United States: A Dynamic Modeling Analysis, Erin J. Stringfellow, Tse Yang Lim, Keith Humphreys, Catherine Digennero, Celia Stafford, Elizabeth Beaulieu, Jack Homer, Wayne Wakeland, Multiple Additional Authors

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Opioid overdose deaths remain a major public health crisis. We used a system dynamics simulation model of the U.S. opioid-using population age 12 and older to explore the impacts of 11 strategies on the prevalence of opioid use disorder (OUD) and fatal opioid overdoses from 2022 to 2032. These strategies spanned opioid misuse and OUD prevention, buprenorphine capacity, recovery support, and overdose harm reduction. By 2032, three strategies saved the most lives: (i) reducing the risk of opioid overdose involving fentanyl use, which may be achieved through fentanyl-focused harm reduction services; (ii) increasing naloxone distribution to people who use opioids; …

Reconstructability Analysis: Discrete Multivariate Modeling, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

An introduction to Reconstructability Analysis for the Discrete Multivariate Modeling course and for other purposes.

Digitally Reporting Trail Obstructions In Forest Park, Colton S. Maybee

REU Final Reports

The inclusion of technology on the trail can lead to better experiences for everyone involved in the hobby. Hikers can play a more prominent role in the maintenance of the trails by being able to provide better reports of obstructions while directly on the trail. This paper goes into the project of revamping the obstruction report system applied at Forest Park in Portland, Oregon. Most of my contributions to the project focus on mobile app development with some research into path planning algorithms related to the continuations of this project.

Forest Park Trail Monitoring, Adan Robles, Colton S. Maybee, Erin Dougherty

REU Final Reports

Forest Park, one of the largest public parks in the United States with over 40 trails to pick from when planning a hiking trip. One of the main problems this park has is that there are too many trails, and a lot of the trails extend over 3 miles. Due to these circumstances’ trails are not checked frequently and hikers are forced to hike trails in the area with no warnings of potential hazards they can encounter. In this paper I researched how Forest Park currently monitors its trails and then set up a goal to solve the problem. We …

Graphical Models In Reconstructability Analysis And Bayesian Networks, Marcus Harris, Martin Zwick

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Reconstructability Analysis (RA) and Bayesian Networks (BN) are both probabilistic graphical modeling methodologies used in machine learning and artificial intelligence. There are RA models that are statistically equivalent to BN models and there are also models unique to RA and models unique to BN. The primary goal of this paper is to unify these two methodologies via a lattice of structures that offers an expanded set of models to represent complex systems more accurately or more simply. The conceptualization of this lattice also offers a framework for additional innovations beyond what is presented here. Specifically, this paper integrates RA and …

Universal Biological Motions For Educational Robot Theatre And Games, Rajesh Venkatachalapathy, Martin Zwick, Adam Slowik, Kai Brooks, Mikhail Mayers, Roman Minko, Tyler Hull, Bliss Brass, Marek Perkowski

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Paper presents a concept that is new to robotics education and social robotics. It is based on theatrical games, in motions for social robots and animatronic robots. Presented here motion model is based on Drift Differential Model from biology and Fokker-Planck equations. This model is used in various areas of science to describe many types of motion. The model was successfully verified on various simulated mobile robots and a motion game of three robots called "Mouse and Cheese."

A Golden Age For Computing Frontiers, A Dark Age For Computing Education?, Christof Teuscher

Electrical and Computer Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

There is no doubt that the body of knowledge spanned by the computing disciplines has gone through an unprecedented expansion, both in depth and breadth, over the last century. In this position paper, we argue that this expansion has led to a crisis in computing education: quite literally the vast majority of the topics of interest of this conference are not taught at the undergraduate level and most graduate courses will only scratch the surface of a few selected topics. But alas, industry is increasingly expecting students to be familiar with emerging topics, such as neuromorphic, probabilistic, and quantum computing, …

Using Information Theory To Extract Patterns From Categorical Raster Data, David Percy

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Information theory -- Reconstructability Analysis (RA) implemented in the Occam software -- was used to extract patterns from National Land Cover Data. The aim was to predict temporal change in evergreen forests from time-lagged and spatially adjacent states. The NLCD satellite data were preprocessed with Python and submitted to Occam for analysis, and Occam output was also explored with R-studio. The effectiveness of RA methodology for the analysis of this type of categorical space-time grid data was demonstrated.

Sensitivity Analysis Of An Agent-Based Simulation Model Using Reconstructability Analysis, Andey M. Nunes, Martin Zwick, Wayne Wakeland

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Reconstructability analysis, a methodology based on information theory and graph theory, was used to perform a sensitivity analysis of an agent-based model. The NetLogo BehaviorSpace tool was employed to do a full 2^k factorial parameter sweep on Uri Wilensky’s Wealth Distribution NetLogo model, to which a Gini-coefficient convergence condition was added. The analysis identified the most influential predictors (parameters and their interactions) of the Gini coefficient wealth inequality outcome. Implications of this type of analysis for building and testing agent-based simulation models are discussed.

Extending The Functional Subnetwork Approach To A Generalized Linear Integrate-And-Fire Neuron Model, Nicholas Szczecinski, Roger Quinn, Alexander J. Hunt

Mechanical and Materials Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

Engineering neural networks to perform specific tasks often represents a monumental challenge in determining network architecture and parameter values. In this work, we extend our previously-developed method for tuning networks of non-spiking neurons, the “Functional subnetwork approach” (FSA), to the tuning of networks composed of spiking neurons. This extension enables the direct assembly and tuning of networks of spiking neurons and synapses based on the network’s intended function, without the use of global optimization ormachine learning. To extend the FSA, we show that the dynamics of a generalized linear integrate and fire (GLIF) neuronmodel have fundamental similarities to those of …

A Quantum Algorithm For Automata Encoding, Edison Tsai, Marek Perkowski

Electrical and Computer Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

Encoding of finite automata or state machines is critical to modern digital logic design methods for sequential circuits. Encoding is the process of assigning to every state, input value, and output value of a state machine a binary string, which is used to represent that state, input value, or output value in digital logic. Usually, one wishes to choose an encoding that, when the state machine is implemented as a digital logic circuit, will optimize some aspect of that circuit. For instance, one might wish to encode in such a way as to minimize power dissipation or silicon area. For …

Storm Tide Amplification And Habitat Changes Due To Urbanization Of A Lagoonal Estuary, Philip Orton, Eric W. Sanderson, Stefan Talke, Mario Giampieri, Kytt Macmanus

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

In recent centuries, human activities have greatly modified the geomorphology of coastal regions. However, studies of historical and possible future changes in coastal flood extremes typically ignore the influence of geomorphic change. Here, we quantify the influence of 20th-century man-made changes to Jamaica Bay, New York City, on present-day storm tides. We develop and validate a hydrodynamic model for the 1870s based on detailed maps of bathymetry, seabed characteristics, topography, and tide observations for use alongside a present-day model. Predominantly through dredging, landfill, and inlet stabilization, the average water depth of the bay increased from 1.7 to 4.5 m, tidal …

A Resource Constrained Shortest Paths Approach To Reducing Personal Pollution Exposure, Elling Payne

REU Final Reports

As wildfires surge in frequency and impact in the Pacific Northwest, in tandem with increasingly traffic-choked roads, personal exposure to harmful airborne pollutants is a rising concern. Particularly at risk are school-age children, especially those living in disadvantaged communities near major motorways and industrial centers. Many of these children must walk to school, and the choice of route can effect exposure. Route-planning applications and frameworks utilizing computational shortest paths methods have been proposed which consider personal exposure with reasonable success, but few have focused on pollution exposure, and all have been limited in scalability or geographic scope. This paper addresses …

Remote Sensing Of Water Use Efficiency And Terrestrial Drought Recovery Across The Contiguous United States, Behzad Ahmadi, Ali Ahmadalipour, Glenn Tootle

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

Ecosystem water-use efficiency (WUE) is defined as the ratio of carbon gain (i.e., gross primary productivity; GPP) to water consumption (i.e., evapotranspiration; ET). WUE is markedly influential on carbon and water cycles, both of which are fundamental for ecosystem state, climate and the environment. Drought can affect WUE, subsequently disturbing the composition and functionality of terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, the impacts of drought on WUE and its components (i.e., GPP and ET) are assessed across the Contiguous US (CONUS) at fine spatial and temporal resolutions. Soil moisture simulations from land surface modeling are utilized to detect and characterize agricultural …

A Bayesian Nonparametric Multiple Testing Procedure For Comparing Several Treatments Against A Control, Luis Gutiérrez, Andrés Barrientos, Jorge González, Daniel Taylor-Rodríguez

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications and Presentations

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric strategy to test for differences between a control group and several treatment regimes. Most of the existing tests for this type of comparison are based on the differences between location parameters. In contrast, our approach identifies differences across the entire distribution, avoids strong modeling assumptions over the distributions for each treatment, and accounts for multiple testing through the prior distribution on the space of hypotheses. The proposal is compared to other commonly used hypothesis testing procedures under simulated scenarios. Two real applications are also analyzed with the proposed methodology.

Good Similar Patches For Image Denoising (Poster), Si Lu

Computer Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Patch-based denoising algorithms like BM3D have achieved outstanding performance. An important idea for the success of these methods is to exploit the recurrence of similar patches in an input image to estimate the underlying image structures....

Spatial Fingerprinting Of Biogenic And Anthropogenic Volatile Organic Compounds In An Arid Unsaturated Zone, Christopher T. Green, Wentai Luo, Christopher H. Conaway, Karl B. Haase, Ronald J. Baker

Chemistry Faculty Publications and Presentations

Subsurface volatile organic compounds (VOCs) can pose risks to human and environmental health and mediate biological processes. Volatile organic compounds have both anthropogenic and biogenic origins, but the relative importance of these sources has not been explored in subsurface environments. This study synthesized 17 yr of VOC data from the Amargosa Desert Research Site in Nevada with the goal of improving understanding of spatial and temporal variations that distinguish sources of VOCs from a landfill and from ambient sources including biogenic VOCs (bVOCs). Gas samples were collected from 1999 to 2016 from an array of shallow sample points (0.5- and …

Mechanics And Historical Evolution Of Sea Level Blowouts In New York Harbor, Praneeth Gurumurthy, Philip Orton, Stefan A. Talke, Nickitas Georgas, James F. Booth

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

Wind-induced sea level blowouts, measured as negative storm surge or extreme low water (ELW), produce public safety hazards and impose economic costs (e.g., to shipping). In this paper, we use a regional hydrodynamic numerical model to test the effect of historical environmental change and the time scale, direction, and magnitude of wind forcing on negative and positive surge events in the New York Harbor (NYH). Environmental sensitivity experiments show that dredging of shipping channels is an important factor affecting blowouts while changing ice cover and removal of other roughness elements are unimportant in NYH. Continuously measured water level records since …

Bigger Tides, Less Flooding: Effects Of Dredging On Barotropic Dynamics In A Highly Modified Estuary, David K. Ralston, Stefan Talke, W. Rockwell Geyer, Hussein A. M. Al-Zubaidi, Christopher K. Sommerfield

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

Since the late nineteenth century, channel depths have more than doubled in parts of New York Harbor and the tidal Hudson River, wetlands have been reclaimed and navigational channels widened, and river flow has been regulated. To quantify the effects of these modifications, observations and numerical simulations using historical and modern bathymetry are used to analyze changes in the barotropic dynamics. Model results and water level records for Albany (1868 to present) and New York Harbor (1844 to present) recovered from archives show that the tidal amplitude has more than doubled near the head of tides, whereas increases in the …

Aliased Tidal Variability In Mesoscale Sea Level Anomaly Maps, Edward Zaron, Richard D. Ray

Civil and Environmental Engineering Faculty Publications and Presentations

Sea level anomaly (SLA) maps are routinely produced by objective analysis of data from the constellation of satellite altimeter missions in operation since 1992. Beginning in 2014, changes in the Data Unification and Altimeter Combination System (DUACS) used to create the SLA maps resulted in improved spatial resolution of mesoscale variability, but it also increased the levels of aliased tidal variability compared to the methodology employed prior to 2014. The present work investigates the magnitude and spatial distribution of these tidal signals, which are typically smaller than 1 cmin the open ocean but can reach tens of centimeters in the …

Keyword-Based Patent Citation Prediction Via Information Theory, Farshad Madani, Martin Zwick, Tugrul U. Daim

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Patent citation shows how a technology impacts other inventions, so the number of patent citations (backward citations) is used in many technology prediction studies. Current prediction methods use patent citations, but since it may take a long time till a patent is cited by other inventors, identifying impactful patents based on their citations is not an effective way. The prediction method offered in this article predicts patent citations based on the content of patents. In this research, Reconstructability Analysis (RA), which is based on information theory and graph theory, is applied to predict patent citations based on keywords extracted from …

Twelve Questions For The Participatory Modeling Community, Rebecca Jordan, Steven Gray, Moira Zellner, Pierre D. Glynn, Alexey Voinov, Beatrice Hedelin, Eleanor J. Sterling, Kirsten Leong, Laura Schmitt Olabisi, Klaus Hubacek, Pierre Bommel, Todd K. Bendor, Antoine J. Jetter, Bethany Laursen, Alison Singer, Philippe J. Giabbanelli, Nagesh Kolagani, Laura Basco Carrera, Karen Jenni, Christina Prell, National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center Participatory Modeling Pursuit Working Group

Engineering and Technology Management Faculty Publications and Presentations

Participatory modeling engages the implicit and explicit knowledge of stakeholders to create formalized and shared representations of reality and has evolved into a field of study as well as a practice. Participatory modeling researchers and practitioners who focus specifically on environmental resources met at the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) in Annapolis, Maryland, over the course of 2 years to discuss the state of the field and future directions for participatory modeling. What follows is a description of 12 overarching groups of questions that could guide future inquiry.

Reconsidering The Foundations Of Thermodynamics From An Engineering Perspective, Terry Bristol

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications and Presentations

Currently, there are two approaches to the foundations of thermodynamics. One, associated with the mechanistical Clausius-Boltzmann tradition, is favored by the physics community. The other, associated with the post-mechanical Carnot tradition, is favored by the engineering community. The bold hypothesis is that the conceptual foundation of engineering thermodynamics is the more comprehensive. Therefore, contrary to the dominant consensus, engineering thermodynamics (ET) represents the true foundation of thermodynamics. The foundational issue is crucial to a number of unresolved current and historical issues in thermodynamic theory and practice. ET formally explains the limited successes of the ‘rational mechanical’ approaches as idealizing special …

Baroclinic Tidal Sea Level From Exact-Repeat Mission Altimetry, Edward Zaron

Portland Institute for Computational Science Publications

A near-global model for the sea-surface expression of the baroclinic tide has been developed using exact-repeat mission altimetry. The methodology used differs in detail from other altimetry-based estimates of the open ocean baroclinic tide, but it leads to estimates which are broadly similar to previous results. It may be used for prediction of the baroclinic sea level anomaly at the frequencies of the main diurnal and semidiurnal tides, K₁, O₁, M₂, S₂, as well as the annual modulates of M₂, denoted MA₂ and MB₂. Based on a …