Engineering Commons^™

Technology Forecasting Using Data Envelopment Analysis, Oliver Lane Inman

Dissertations and Theses

The ability to anticipate future capabilities of technology products has broad implications for organizations. Technological forecasting allows management to improve resource allocation, make better staffing decisions, and more confidently plan facilities and capital expenditures. Technology forecasting may also identify potential new markets and opportunities, such as finding ways to exploit current technology beyond its originally intended purposes.

Modern technology forecasters use an array of forecasting methods to predict the future performance of a technology, such as time-series analysis, regression, stochastic methods, and simulation. These quantitative methods rely on the assumption that past behavior will continue. Shortcomings include their lack of …