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Articles 1 - 18 of 18
Full-Text Articles in Engineering
Cost Estimating Relationships For Recurring T100 Flyaway Costs, Kyrie M. Rojo
Cost Estimating Relationships For Recurring T100 Flyaway Costs, Kyrie M. Rojo
Theses and Dissertations
This research investigates a dataset of over 80 Air Force and Navy aircraft and applies regression techniques to create two cost estimating relationships (CERs) for predicting recurring T100 flyaway costs, depending on where in the acquisition lifecycle the estimate takes place. The first CER explains 89 percent of the variation in the dataset and can be applied prior to Milestone B (MS B). The second CER explains 88 percent of the variation in the dataset and can be applied between MS B and MS C. Significant cost drivers identified include stealth, cohort, empty weight, the natural log of speed, legacy …
The Effects Of Funding Gaps On Depot Maintenance Hours, Carlo S. D'Amato
The Effects Of Funding Gaps On Depot Maintenance Hours, Carlo S. D'Amato
Theses and Dissertations
The relationship between expenditures and readiness level is a topic of interest to military senior leaders, defense resource planners, and the American taxpayer alike. Senior leaders within the Air Force (AF) justify increased defense budgets by pointing to the potential adverse effects that decreased funding could have on military readiness. Resource planners within the AF are then tasked with the responsibility of ensuring that budgets are allocated most effectively to maximize the AF's ability to project airpower across a variety of contingency operations. This thesis investigates the relationship between budgets and readiness by examining the relationship between depot level funding …
Investigating Lifecycle Costs Of Optimized Battery-Photovoltaic Systems On A Forward Operating Base, Neal S. Fennell
Investigating Lifecycle Costs Of Optimized Battery-Photovoltaic Systems On A Forward Operating Base, Neal S. Fennell
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this research was to investigate the total life-cycle cost of using utility-scale battery systems to increase the energy efficiency of forward operating bases, thereby reducing the burden of diesel fuel logistics. Specifically, this thesis answered three research questions addressing optimal sizing for various battery types connected with photovoltaic grids, logistical parameters directly impacting total cost, and the cost of increasing the energy resilience of the network. The research questions were answered through a review of literature, modeling, and data analysis. The model determines an optimal size and area for a Vanadium redox flow, Lithium-ion, or Lead-acid battery …
Delineating Operating And Support Costs In Aircraft Platforms, Garrett B. O'Hanlon, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Edward D. White, Gregory E. Brown
Delineating Operating And Support Costs In Aircraft Platforms, Garrett B. O'Hanlon, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Edward D. White, Gregory E. Brown
Faculty Publications
As the costs of Department of Defense (DoD) Weapon Systems increase, the ability to estimate the Operating and Support (O&S) costs accurately for the various weapon systems has become vital to long-term affordability. This research focuses on the O&S costs of the Air Force fixed-wing arsenal (i.e., platforms) for 1996–2016. First, the Cost Element Structure (CES) for 52 aircraft platforms and seven operational mission categories is analyzed to derive the descriptive statistics per aircraft category through examination of actual historical costs. Second, testing to identify statistical differences within the O&S CES construct across various Air Force aircraft categories is conducted. …
The Influence Of Operational Resources And Activities On Indirect Personnel Costs: A Multilevel Modeling Approach, Bradley C. Boehmke, Alan W. Johnson, Edward D. White, Jeffery D. Weir, Mark A. Gallagher
The Influence Of Operational Resources And Activities On Indirect Personnel Costs: A Multilevel Modeling Approach, Bradley C. Boehmke, Alan W. Johnson, Edward D. White, Jeffery D. Weir, Mark A. Gallagher
Faculty Publications
Indirect activities often represent an underemphasized, yet significant, contributing source of costs for organizations. In order to manage indirect costs, organizations must understand how these costs behave relative to changes in operational resources and activities. This is of particular interest to the Air Force and its sister services, because recent and projected reductions in defense spending are forcing reductions in their operational variables, and insufficient research exists to help them understand how this may influence indirect costs. Furthermore, although academic research on indirect costs has advanced the knowledge behind the modeling and behavior of indirect costs, significant gaps in the …
Alternative Active Duty Military Retirement Plan, Amy L. Schmidt
Alternative Active Duty Military Retirement Plan, Amy L. Schmidt
Theses and Dissertations
No abstract provided.
Forecasting Flying Hour Costs Of The B-1, B-2, And B-52 Bomber Aircraft, Stefanie L. Van Dyk
Forecasting Flying Hour Costs Of The B-1, B-2, And B-52 Bomber Aircraft, Stefanie L. Van Dyk
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis both evaluates, and presents improvements to, the current method of forecasting flying costs of Air Force aircraft. It uses depot level repairable (DLR) and consumable (CONS) data for the Air Force's bomber platforms: B-1B, B-2, and B-52H. The current forecasting method assumes a proportional relationship between costs and flying hours such that 1) when no hours are flown costs are zero, and 2) a 1% increase in flying hours will increase costs by 1%. The findings of this research indicate that applying log-linear ordinary least squares regression techniques may be an improved fit of flying cost data over …
Forecasting The Kc-135 Cost Per Flying Hour: A Panel Data Analysis, Michael T. Bryant
Forecasting The Kc-135 Cost Per Flying Hour: A Panel Data Analysis, Michael T. Bryant
Theses and Dissertations
This thesis developed models to forecast the KC-135R monthly Consumables (CONS) and Depot Level Reparable (DLR) Cost per Flying Hour (CPFH) for each U.S. Air Force service component. Using data for each operating location from FY1998 to FY2004, the models were constructed using panel data analysis, a form of regression that adds a cross-sectional and time-series dimension. In addition to including factors previously identified as prime contributors to CPFH, the models added new elements that may influence maintenance costs and be of interest to policymakers. These elements included mission capable rates, airframe operating hours, and climatology factors. An interaction variable …
Price Vs. Performance: The Value Of Next Generation Fighter Aircraft, John M. Stelly
Price Vs. Performance: The Value Of Next Generation Fighter Aircraft, John M. Stelly
Theses and Dissertations
The United States Department of Defense (DoD) is currently recapitalizing its aging fighter aircraft inventory with the F-22A and F-35. While the DoD may consider cost and performance issues, it does not use a quantitative model that effectively measures the tradeoffs between the two. This thesis constructs a hedonic model of the fighter aircraft market to measure the implicit price on fighter performance characteristics and specifically applies it to next-generation aircraft. Data from 50 aircraft from 1949-present were used to construct two models – one based on procurement costs and one based on research, design, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) costs. …
Analysis And Forecasting Of U.S. Navy Operating And Support (O&S) Costs For Rotary Aircraft, Christopher J. Wilkes
Analysis And Forecasting Of U.S. Navy Operating And Support (O&S) Costs For Rotary Aircraft, Christopher J. Wilkes
Theses and Dissertations
This research explores forecasting techniques to estimate the Cost per Flying Hour (CPFH) for Navy rotary aircraft. Three separate forecasting techniques were evaluated to better predict the CPFH for better estimating and budgeting by the U.S. Navy. The process begins by empirically analyzing Operating & Support cost categories for each helicopter. Trends were examined in CPFH. For forecasting purposes, actual CPFH figures were compiled from 1997 to 2003 for the CH-46D, the CH-53D, the MH-53E, the SH-60F, the UH-1N, and the UH-3H helicopters. The forecasting techniques explored were the 3-year moving average, the single exponential smoothing method, and Holt's linear …
Estimating Cost Growth In Engineering And Schedule Cost Categories Using A Two-Pronged Regression Approach, Chris J. Mcdaniel
Estimating Cost Growth In Engineering And Schedule Cost Categories Using A Two-Pronged Regression Approach, Chris J. Mcdaniel
Theses and Dissertations
This research confirms the usefulness of the logistic and multiple regression two-step procedure for assessing cost growth in major DoD weapon systems. We compile programmatic data from the Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) between 1990 and 2002 for programs covering all defense departments. Our analysis concentrates on cost growth in the procurement appropriations of the Engineering and Manufacturing Development phase of acquisitions. We investigate the use of logistic regression in cost growth analysis to predict whether or not cost growth will occur in a program. If applicable, multiple regression is implemented to predict how much cost growth will occur. Our study …
Creating Cost Growth Models For The Engineering And Manufacturing Development Phase Of Acquisition Using Logistic And Multiple Regression, Brandon M. Lucas
Creating Cost Growth Models For The Engineering And Manufacturing Development Phase Of Acquisition Using Logistic And Multiple Regression, Brandon M. Lucas
Theses and Dissertations
Cost growth remains a concern for cost analysts, program managers, senior DoD decision-makers, Congress, and even the American public. All of these people have a vested interest in the cost of DoD programs and most would like to see those costs decrease; as such, we need additional tools to help combat cost growth. Previous research creates the foundation for the use of a two-step methodology to help predict cost growth, which we follow closely. First, utilizing logistic regression we analyze whether specific program characteristics predict cost growth within the Engineering and Manufacturing Development (EMD) phase for combined RDT&E and procurement …
Analysis And Forecasting Of Air Force Operating And Support Cost For Rotary Aircraft, Matthew E. Laubacher
Analysis And Forecasting Of Air Force Operating And Support Cost For Rotary Aircraft, Matthew E. Laubacher
Theses and Dissertations
This research explores forecasting techniques to estimate the Cost per Flying Hour (CPFH) for Air Force Helicopters. Specifically, this research evaluates three separate forecasting techniques to predict the CPFH for better estimating and budgeting by the U.S. Air Force. It starts by empirically analyzing the Operating and Support cost by CAIG categories for each helicopter. For forecasting purposes, the actual CPFH figures were compiled from FY96 to FY03 for a total of eight MAJCOMs flying the MH-53J/M, the HH-60G, or the UH-1N helicopters. The research explores the use of a 3-year moving average, the single exponential smoothing method, and Holt's …
Analysis And Forecasting Of Army Operating And Support Cost For Rotary Aircraft, John C. Hawkins
Analysis And Forecasting Of Army Operating And Support Cost For Rotary Aircraft, John C. Hawkins
Theses and Dissertations
This research explores forecasting techniques to estimate the Cost per Flying Hour (CPFH) for Army Helicopters. Specifically, three separate forecasting techniques were evaluated to better predict the CPFH for better estimating and budgeting by the U.S. Army. For forecasting purposes, actual CPFH figures were compiled from 1995 to 2003 for all MACOMs flying the AH-64A, the CH-47D, and the UH-60A helicopters. The number of MACOMs was then reduced to the top three with regard to total CPFH expenditure. The use of a 3-year moving average, the single exponential smoothing method, and Holt's linear method were explored for each helicopter's data. …
A Life Cycle Cost Analysis Of The Proposed Replacement Of Pope Air Force Base's C-130e Fleet Using A Fleet Replacement Model, Lance R. French
A Life Cycle Cost Analysis Of The Proposed Replacement Of Pope Air Force Base's C-130e Fleet Using A Fleet Replacement Model, Lance R. French
Theses and Dissertations
The 43rd Airlift Wing at Pope AFB, NC, possesses 33 E-model C-130 aircraft. The airplanes range in age from 30-36 years old. Current plans call for replacing Pope's aging fleet of tactical airlifters with new C-130J model planes in FY11. There are two replacement alternatives proposed in this research. The first is to calls for replacing the C-130Es with C-130Js now. The second option is upgrade the C-130Es to C-130Xs and replace them in 10 years with the C-130J. The results indicate that the least cost solution is to upgrade Pope's fleet of C-130Es to C-130Xs now. However, after conducting …
Estimating C-17 Operating And Support Costs: Development Of A System Dynamics Model, Christopher D. Purvis
Estimating C-17 Operating And Support Costs: Development Of A System Dynamics Model, Christopher D. Purvis
Theses and Dissertations
This research provides justification for experimenting with system dynamics (SD) for performing Operation and Support Cost estimates. For the C-17 Globemaster III cargo aircraft, these costs could exceed $64 billion dollars. Also, many of our weapon systems are beginning to reach the end of their effective life span, and discussions about the impact of aging, on aircraft, has become a hot topic in the literature. System Dynamics is a modeling methodology developed in 1958, but never used extensively for cost estimating. SD offers unique capabilities to the cost estimator, including the ability to model causal relationships. This capability offers the …
Relating Initial Budget To Program Growth With Rayleigh And Weibull Models, Eric J. Unger
Relating Initial Budget To Program Growth With Rayleigh And Weibull Models, Eric J. Unger
Theses and Dissertations
Previous research on completed defense R&D shows that contract expenditures can be fit well with a Rayleigh model. With fixed outlay rates, as prescribed by the OSD comptroller, the budget profile must have most of the funds in the early years to produce Rayleigh-distributed expenditures. R&D programs with more delayed funding profiles may also produce expenditures that a Rayleigh model fits through schedule slips and cost overruns. This research tests how well the initial funding profile produces Rayleigh-distributed expenditures that can be related to the program's final cost overrun and schedule slips. Based only on the initial budget profile, we …
An Evaluation Of U.S. Air Force Aviation Fuel Consumption Factors To Accurately Predict Aviation Fuel Costs By Aircraft Mission, Design, And Series, Jodi A. Clayton
An Evaluation Of U.S. Air Force Aviation Fuel Consumption Factors To Accurately Predict Aviation Fuel Costs By Aircraft Mission, Design, And Series, Jodi A. Clayton
Theses and Dissertations
The purpose of this thesis was to undertake a systematic, scientific study of the accuracy of Air Force published fuel factors to estimate fuel costs at MAJCOM level by mission, design, and series (MDS) since the implementation of the Fuels Automated Management System (FAMS) under the current environment of decentralized aviation fuel (AVFUEL) funding. The research found that, at MAJCOM level, the use of USAF published AVFUEL factors in estimating out-year costs would have overstated costs in both fiscal year (FY) 1994 and FY 1995 by $2.5 M (FY 1994), by $.25 M (FY 1995), and may potentially understate costs …