Engineering Commons^™

A Bayesian Network-Based Methodology For Improved Bridge Load Rating And Asset Management, Jeffery Mark Roberts

Dissertations and Theses

From the day a new structure is made available for use, to the day that the structure is no longer able to fulfill an intended purpose, structural safety is a vital interest. Managing a portfolio of structures can be a difficult undertaking for an asset manager, particularly if different types of structures are being maintained. The goal is to manage assets in the most efficient manner which can be influenced by, at a minimum, safety and financial concerns.

A potential tool for an asset manager or owner is the use of Bayesian Networks (BNs). When a BN is used to …

Accuracy And Uncertainty In Traffic And Transit Ridership Forecasts, Jawad Mahmud Hoque

Theses and Dissertations--Civil Engineering

Investments of public dollars on highway and transit infrastructure are influenced by the anticipated demands for highways and public transportations or traffic and transit ridership forecasts. The purpose of this study is to understand the accuracy of road traffic forecasts and transit ridership forecasts, to identify the factors that affect their accuracy, and to develop a method to estimate the uncertainty inherent in those forecasts. In addition, this research investigates the pre-pandemic decline in transit ridership across the US metro areas since 2012 and its influence on the accuracy of transit forecasts.

The sample of 1,291 road projects from the …

Robustness And Accuracy Bounds Of Model-Based Structural Health Monitoring, Nestor Ramon Polanco

Graduate College Dissertations and Theses

The strength and stiffness of structures degrade with time due to a combination of external forces and environmental conditions. A vehicular bridge, an offshore platform, a ship hull, or a wind turbine are examples of structures that for decades must endure cumulative degradation of their mechanical properties due to cyclic loading. Fatigue-induced damage typically starts at the exterior surface of the component unless microscopic or macroscopic imperfections are present in the material's structure. Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) provides a scientific non-destructive framework to estimate the structure's current state and remaining service life. In many model-based structural health monitoring applications, the …

Groundwater Management Optimization And Saltwater Intrusion Mitigation Under Uncertainty, Jina Yin

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Groundwater is valuable to supply fresh water to the public, industries, agriculture, etc. However, excessive pumping has caused groundwater storage degradation, water quality deterioration and saltwater intrusion problems. Reliable groundwater flow and solute transport modeling is needed for sustainable groundwater management and aquifer remediation design. However, challenges exist because of highly complex subsurface environments, computationally intensive groundwater models as well as inevitable uncertainties. The first research goal is to explore conjunctive use of feasible hydraulic control approaches for groundwater management and aquifer remediation. Water budget analysis is conducted to understand how groundwater withdrawals affect water levels. A mixed integer multi-objective …

Identification And Reduction Of Uncertainties In Watershed-Scale Flow And Water Quality Modeling, Maryam Roostaee

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

This study identified important uncertainties affecting watershed-scale flow and water quality simulations and recommended modeling options for reducing the uncertainties by means of the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model. Specifically, parameter-induced uncertainties in HSPF model were estimated along with uncertainties associated with DEM resolutions and sources. National Elevation Dataset (NED) DEMs with original and resampled resolutions of 3.5, 10, 30 and 100m were utilized for manual and automatic delineation of three watersheds with different gradients in HSPF model to identify the effects of DEM resolution, DEM resampling, delineation method and watershed gradient on the simulation of streamflow, nitrate (NO_{3 …}

Combining Interval And Probabilistic Uncertainty In Engineering Applications, Andrew Martin Pownuk

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

In many practical application, we process measurement results and expert estimates. Measurements and expert estimates are never absolutely accurate, their result are slightly different from the actual (unknown) values of the corresponding quantities. It is therefore desirable to analyze how this measurement and estimation inaccuracy affects the results of data processing. There exist numerous methods for estimating the accuracy of the results of data processing under different models of measurement and estimation inaccuracies: probabilistic, interval, and fuzzy. To be useful in engineering applications, these methods should provide accurate estimate for the resulting uncertainty, should not take too much computation time, …

Robust Geotechnical Design - Methodology And Applications, Lei Wang

All Dissertations

This dissertation is aimed at developing a novel robust geotechnical design methodology and demonstrating this methodology for the design of geotechnical systems. The goal of a robust design is to make the response of a system insensitive to, or robust against, the variation of uncertain geotechnical parameters (termed noise factors in the context of robust design) by carefully adjusting design parameters (those that can be controlled by the designer such as geometry of the design). Through an extensive investigation, a robust geotechnical design methodology that considers explicitly safety, robustness, and cost is developed. Various robustness measures are considered in this …

Essays On The Quantification And Propagation Of Uncertainty In Climate Change Impact Assessments For Water Resource Systems, Scott Steinschneider

Doctoral Dissertations

Sustainable water resources planning and management under climate change requires a proper treatment of uncertainties that emerge in an impacts analysis. A primary source of this uncertainty originates from the difficulties in projecting how anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will evolve over time and influence the climate system at regional and local scales. However, other sources of uncertainty, such as errors in modeling hydrologic response to climate and the influences of internal climate variability, compound the effects of climate change uncertainty and further obscure our understanding of water resources performance under future climate conditions. This work presents an approach to quantify …

Probabilistic Back Analysis Of Geotechnical Systems, Lei Wang

All Theses

This thesis is aimed at applying the probabilistic approaches for back analysis of geotechnical systems. First, a probabilistic back-analysis of a recent slope failure at a site on Freeway No. 3 in northern Taiwan is presented. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation is used to back-calculate the geotechnical strength parameters and the anchor force. These inverse analysis results, which agree closely with the findings of the post-event investigations, are then used to validate the maximum likelihood method, a computationally more efficient back-analysis approach. The improved knowledge of the geotechnical strength parameters and the anchor force gained through the probabilistic …

Applications Of Bayesian Statistics In Fluvial Bed Load Transport, Mark L. Schmelter

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

The science of fluvial sediment transport studies the processes involved in the movement of river sediments. It is commonly understood that when rivers flood they have a great capacity to move sand, gravel, and even larger cobbles and boulders. This process is not only limited to the big floods that usually attract so much attention, but also the more common river flows play a very important role in forming a river. As engineers and scientists, we like to be able to develop equations and relationships that describe some natural phenomenon—in this case, fluvial sediment transport. While we are able to …

Structural Identification Through Monitoring, Modeling And Predictive Analysis Under Uncertainty, Hasan Burak Gökçe

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Bridges are critical components of highway networks, which provide mobility and economical vitality to a nation. Ensuring the safety and regular operation as well as accurate structural assessment of bridges is essential. Structural Identification (St-Id) can be utilized for better assessment of structures by integrating experimental and analytical technologies in support of decision-making. St-Id is defined as creating parametric or nonparametric models to characterize structural behavior based on structural health monitoring (SHM) data. In a recent study by the ASCE St-Id Committee, St-Id framework is given in six steps, including modeling, experimentation and ultimately decision making for estimating the performance …

A Framework For Process Data Collection, Analysis, And Visualization In Construction Projects, Reza Akhavian

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Automated data collection, simulation and visualization can substantially enhance the process of designing, analysis, planning, and control of many engineering processes. In particular, managing processes that are dynamic in nature can significantly benefit from such techniques. Construction projects are good examples of such processes where a variety of equipment and resources constantly interact inside an evolving environment. Management of such settings requires a platform capable of providing decision-makers with updated information about the status of project entities and assisting site personnel making critical decisions under uncertainty. To this end, the current practice of using historical data or expert judgments as …