Management Sciences and Quantitative Methods Commons^™

Global Warming, Extreme Weather Events, And Forecasting Tropical Cyclones: A Market-Based Forward-Looking Approach, Carolyn W. Chang, Jack S. K. Chang, Kian Guan Lim

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Global warming has more than doubled the likelihood of extreme weather events, e.g. the 2003 European heat wave, the growing intensity of rain and snow in the Northern Hemisphere, and the increasing risk of flooding in the United Kingdom. It has also induced an increasing number of deadly tropical cyclones with a continuing trend. Many individual meteorological dynamic simulations and statistical models are available for forecasting hurricanes but they neither forecast well hurricane intensity nor produce clear-cut consensus. We develop a novel hurricane forecasting model by straddling two seemingly unrelated disciplines — physical science and finance — based on the …