Management Sciences and Quantitative Methods Commons^™

Do First Impressions Last? The Impact Of Initial Assessments And Subsequent Performance On Promotion Decisions, Dirk Black, Marshall Vance

Department of Management: Faculty Publications

This paper examines whether and for how long managers’ initial assessments of employee ability influence promotion decisions. Using archival data from minor league professional baseball, we find that, controlling for performance, initial assessments are associated with promotion decisions for at least six years after the initial assessment was made. We also find that initial assessments are positively associated with future performance at the outset of a player’s career, but the association becomes insignificant after a player accumulates on-the-job experience. We show that the weight on initial assessments for promotion decisions declines as additional on-the-job performance signals are observed, reflecting the …