Management Sciences and Quantitative Methods Commons^™

New Approach To Density Estimation And Application To Value-At-Risk, Kian Guan Lim, Hao Cheng, Nelson K. L. Yap

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The key contribution in this paper is to provide a new approach in estimating the physical distribution of the underlying asset return by using a quadratic Radon-Nikodym derivative function. The latter function transforms a fitted Variance Gamma risk-neutral distribution that is obtained from traded option prices. The generality of the VG distribution helps to avoid unnecessary mis-specification bias. The estimated empirical distribution is then used to find the risk measure of VaR. We show that possible underestimation of VaR risk using existing methods is largely not due to VaR itself but perhaps due to mis-specification errors which we minimize in …

Loss Aversion, Adaptive Beliefs, And Asset Pricing Dynamics, Kamal Samy Selim Prof, Ahmed Eltabee Okasha Dr., Heba M. Ezzat Dr.

Business Administration

We study asset pricing dynamics in artificial financial markets model. The financial market is populated with agents following two heterogeneous trading beliefs, the technical and the fundamental prediction rules. Agents switch between trading rules with respect to their past performance. The agents are loss averse over asset price fluctuations. Loss aversion behaviour depends on the past performance of the trading strategies in terms of an evolutionary fitness measure. We propose a novel application of the prospect theory to agent-based modelling, and by simulation, the effect of evolutionary fitness measure on adaptive belief system is investigated. For comparison, we study pricing …

Exponential Growth Bias Matters: Evidence And Implications For Financial Decision Making Of College Students In The U.S.A., Bryan Foltice, Thomas Langer

Scholarship and Professional Work - Business

This paper tests the exponential growth bias of undergraduate students at a top-level university in the United States and explores the potential drivers of this bias. We find that bias matters, even for college students, in making savings and debt decisions. In this sample, we observe that the individuals who have already taken on debt are more biased, while those who have experience with savings products are less biased. Moreover, those classified as possessing an awareness of compound growth as well as an ability to consistently calculate the compound savings equation are significantly less biased in different savings treatments than …

How To Decrease The Amortization Bias: Experience Vs. Rules, Bryan Foltice

Scholarship and Professional Work - Business

We conduct an experimental study that tests the effectiveness of de-biasing a certain form of exponential growth bias found in household finance debt decisions, called the amortization bias. We provide 251 bachelor students at a German university with a short tutorial based on one of three learning methods: experiential learning, learning a simple “I Owe More” debt rule-of-thumb, as well as learning an extended, but more accurate version of the “I Owe More” debt rule. Immediately after completing these tutorials, we retest for the amortization bias and find a significant bias improvement in all three treatments. More importantly, after confronting …

The Relationship Between Firm Resources And Joint Ventures: Revisited, Vivien E. Jancenelle

Business Student Publications

Purpose

– This study is a replication of Wolff and Reed’s (2000) work. The purpose of this paper is to examine how the combination of resources brought to joint ventures influence parent-firm performance. This study is also interested in whether or not the exposure of immobile resources through the semi-transparent membrane of the joint venture can have negative effects on parent-firm performance.

Design/methodology/approach

– The sample consists of two-parent joint ventures formed by publicly traded US firms between 1997 and 2013. The event-study methodology is used to calculate each parent-firm’s abnormal returns. This work also uses content analysis to analyze …

Profitable Momentum Trading Strategies For Individual Investors, Bryan Foltice, Thomas Langer

Scholarship and Professional Work - Business

For nearly three decades, scientific studies have explored momentum investing strategies and observed stable excess returns in various financial markets. However, the trading strategies typically analyzed in such research are not accessible to individual investors due to short selling constraints, nor are they profitable due to high trading costs. Incorporating these constraints, we explore a simplified momentum trading strategy that only exploits excess returns from topside momentum for a small number of individual stocks. Building on US data from the New York Stock Exchange from July 1991 to December 2010, we analyze whether such a simplified momentum strategy outperforms the …