Management Sciences and Quantitative Methods Commons^™

A Comparative Study Of The Performance Of Loss Reserving Methods Through Simulation, Prakash Narayan, Thomas Warthen

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

Actuaries are often asked to provide a range or confidence level for the loss reserve along with a point estimate. Traditional methods of loss reserving do not provide an estimate of the variance of the estimated reserve, and actuaries use various ad hoc methods to derive a range for the indicated reserve. We use a Monte Carlo simulation method to compare various loss reserve estimation methods, including traditional methods and regression-based methods of loss reserving.