Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Finance and Financial Management Commons™
Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
- Discipline
Articles 1 - 13 of 13
Full-Text Articles in Finance and Financial Management
Assessing The Odds Of A Us Recession, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez
Assessing The Odds Of A Us Recession, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
In this commentary, SMU Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) Principal Researcher Thomas Lam and SKBI Director SMU Professor of Finance (Practice) Dave Fernandez offer their perspectives on the current multifaceted and highly charged US recession debate. While America is currently not in a downturn, the near-term odds of one have edged up, according to models based on key monthly and weekly indicators.
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2022 August, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2022 August, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
The latest survey results on the largest five economies (Big5) were revised markedly relative to the prior release (pre-Russia-Ukraine conflict), generally indicating weaker growth and higher inflation coupled with incremental ambiguity on the policy front.
Sandwiched Between A Rock And A Hard Place?, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez
Sandwiched Between A Rock And A Hard Place?, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
The policy gap between US and China is likely to be widening further, potentially raising and unevenly distributing the risks of negative spillovers for Asia and the rest of the world.
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2022 February, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2022 February, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
The latest survey results on the largest five economies (Big5), based on submissions prior to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, imply a more intricate growth, inflation and policy dynamic.
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2021 August, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2021 August, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
The latest survey results convey an upshift in growth projections of the five largest economies in aggregate accompanied by higher inflation, especially this year and to a lesser extent next year. The aggregate “Big5” median real GDP growth projections for 2021 and 2022 were raised to 6.7% (up in US, CN and EA but down in IN and JP) and 4.9% (all except US), respectively. The overall “Big5” median CPI inflation forecasts were nudged up to 2.6% (higher in US, IN and EA but lower in CN) and 2.4% (in US, IN and EA some), respectively, for this year and …
Squawking About Persistently Higher Inflation?, Thomas Lam
Squawking About Persistently Higher Inflation?, Thomas Lam
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
All signs point to an uncertain path for inflation in the future. While inflation is set to stay prospectively higher in the US in the near-term, it's unlikely to remain so.
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2021 February, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2021 February, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
The latest survey results suggest that the five largest economies collectively is projected to snapback to almost 6% in 2021, a modest upgrade from the August median, following an unprecedented preliminary contraction of roughly 4% last year (in real GDP terms). The 2022 median growth forecast of slightly above 4.5%, while slower, is still respectable, outstripping its pre-COVID 10-year average pace by more than half a percentage point. The aggregate upgrade in 2021, however, obscures the lopsided nature and highly uneven contour of the ongoing recovery. The bulk of the upward revision to growth was mainly due to IN (to …
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2020 August, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2020 August, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
The COVID-19 pandemic led to whopping downward revisions to 2020 real GDP growth among the Big5 economies, on average greater than 7%-points (ranging from roughly 3.5%-points for China to more than 10%-points for India). The forecast revisions to headline inflation were less sizable and more uneven, perhaps because of the confluence of supply and demand influences. The 2021 median GDP forecast is expected to turn positive overall, with a balanced risk assessment for most of the Big5 (but a coin toss in IN and US), but the growth reversal is likely to be highly uneven. While China regains its prior …
Fomc Playbook: The Only New Game In Town?, Thomas Lam
Fomc Playbook: The Only New Game In Town?, Thomas Lam
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
In light of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), while taking more aggressive actions, seems to have stuck more or less to the standard playbook of responding to “unusual and exigent circumstances”. This essentially calls for slashing conventional policy rates to their effective lower bound, accompanied by forward guidance, embarking on asset purchases, rolling out emergency liquidity facilities and experimenting with lending programmes. But policymakers, with the required US Treasury backstop, have also introduced more creative programmes to encourage credit extension and reached into different market segments.
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2020 February, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2020 February, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
On balance, our overall read of the latest multiyear Big5 survey results implies the following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, US, Euro Area, Japan and China (i.e., India’s economy might be least at-risk, while China is deemed to be most at-risk). Broadly, survey participants expect the risk assessment to GDP growth to be skewed to the downside in 2020 followed by a more balanced backdrop in 2021. But participants seem to be more divided, with most responses favoring “downside” or/and “balanced” risks, on the 2022 growth environment. The risks to headline inflation in 2020, however, appear to be more …
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2019 August, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2019 August, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
On balance, our overall interpretation of the multiyear Big5 survey results implies the following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, China, US, Japan and Euro Area (i.e., India’s economy appears to be the least at-risk, while the Euro Area might be the most at-risk). Broadly, survey participants expect the risks to GDP growth to be tilted to the downside in 2019 and 2020 followed by a more balanced growth environment in 2021. But participants seem to lean toward a more balanced risk assessment on headline inflation from 2019 through 2021, with the exception of the Euro Area, where a modest …
Likely Trajectory Of Fed Policy Far From Settled, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez
Likely Trajectory Of Fed Policy Far From Settled, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Markets seem to be assuming an almost pre-set path of Fed policy normalization in 2019, including hiking rates and shrinking the balance sheet. In contrast, we see many uncertainties ahead.
House Prices And Fundamental Value, John Krainer, Chi Shen Wei
House Prices And Fundamental Value, John Krainer, Chi Shen Wei
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The performance of the residential housing market over the last ten years has been remarkable. According to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), house prices have appreciated at an annual rate of 5.4% on average (68.9% over the whole time period). Perhaps even more remarkable is that the performance was strong even when economic activity overall was weak. Average annual appreciation rates have been 7.4% (26% in total) since the collapse of the Nasdaq in 2000 and 7.1% (20% in total) since 2001:Q1, the beginning of the 2001 recession. In contrast, since the start of the 2001 recession, …