Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

How You Estimate The Yield Curve Matters!, Luiz Paulo Fichtner, Pedro Santa-Clara

Luiz Paulo Fichtner

We evaluate a two-factor Cox et al. (1985a,b) model using Euribor zero-coupon yields. We estimate this model using a state-space framework, where we sum a log-likelihood function of the state vector dynamics to a log-likelihood function of cross-section pricing errors. We introduce a likelihood-scaling weight in the joint log-likelihood function and show that there is a tradeoff in how one estimates a yield curve. Giving more weight to the cross-section of pricing errors improves the fitting and forecasting of Euribor yields, while giving more weight to the log-likelihood function of the state vector dynamics improves interest rate derivative pricing at …

Out-Of-Sample Predictability Of Bond Returns, Luiz Paulo Fichtner, Pedro Santa-Clara

Luiz Paulo Fichtner

We test the out-of-sample predictive power for one-year bond excess returns for a vari- ety of models that have been proposed in the literature. We find that these models perform well in sample, but have worse out-of-sample performance than the historical sample mean. We write the one-year excess return on a n-maturity bond at time t + 1 as the difference between n times the n-maturity bond yield at time t, and the sum of n − 1 times the (n − 1)-maturity bond yield at time t + 1 and the one-year bond yield at time t. Instead of …

The Relationship Among The Liquidity In Real Economy, Financial Economy And Inflation, Zhaoxuan Sun

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

This paper introduces the principles supporting the fisher transaction equation. Then, it transforms the traditional quantity equation, and adds the financial economic department into the equation to estimate currency liquidity respectively. We show that when liquidity enters into the real economy and the financial economy, the capital price will change earlier than the product price does. We could also interpret that the excess liquidity in the financial economy firstly affects the capital price. Then, the capital price will take positive effects on the product price. This is opposed to the influence mechanism taken by liquidity on the real economy. We …

Stock Market Efficiency In The S&P 500 With Respect To Day Of The Week, Zachary James Rodenbarger

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

Theoretically speaking, we assume that markets are efficient and that investors should not be able to earn abnormal returns without privately held information. The fact that fund managers beat the market can simply be explained as luck. However, realistically speaking, the markets involve humans that do not always make rational decisions, which can lead to market inefficiencies. This paper looks into one such inefficiency which regards trading day of the week in the S&P 500 through three different forecasting periods coming before, during, and after the financial crisis of 2008. Theoretically we would expect to find no pattern or correlation …

Link Between S&P 500 And Ftse 100 And The Comparison Of That Link Before And After The S&P 500 Peak In October 2007, Michael Joseph Silk

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

The paper reviews the correlation between the S&P 500 and the FTSE 100 before and during the 2008 global financial crisis. It found that The S&P 500 has a strong causation effect on the FTSE 100, both before and since the financial crisis. This link seems to have increased after the October 2007 peak in the S&P 500. Since the crisis, the FTSE 100 appears to have a weak causation effect on the S&P 500. Before the crisis there was no apparent impact on the S&P 500’s movements from movements in the FTSE 100.

The Empirical Study Of Earnings Management Based On Chinese Listed Companies, Yang Zhang

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

Earnings management that is used to manipulate book earnings to an expected level has been one of the controversial topics in the accounting field. It occurs two ways: one is accrued earnings management and the other is real earnings management. Many studies show that these two methods have a reciprocal relationship based on the costs of using them. The accrued earnings management method is preferred when the accounting standards are flexible and the real earnings management is preferred when the legal systems are good. This paper verifies its findings by drawing a link to the new accounting standard announced by …

The Global Financial Tsunami : 2008, Juan Manuel Chaves Echeverri

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

In 2008 a series of bankruptcies of financial institutions led the United States and the principal economies of the world into a recession of great magnitude that required exceptional government intervention.

It started on September 14th when Lehman Brothers announced that it was entering into chapter 11 bankruptcy. After this, there was intervention in recognized multinational corporations like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and American International Group. There were also the bank failures of Washington Mutual and Citigroup.

The main cause of this crisis was the excessive level of leverage of the financial industry, which had its roots in the real …

Reserve Currency And A Lender Of Next-To-Last Resort: A Literature Review, Alida S. Skold

Alida S. Skold

The role of the US dollar as the global dominant reserve currency is eroding. Debate is ongoing regarding next steps. Moving the international monetary system to a single global currency is part of the debate. Literature reviews the eroding role of the US dollar and implications the erosion carries for the US. The Special Drawing Rights developed by the IMF could fill the role of Keynes’ recommended global currency known as the “bancor.” Regardless of the nature of the global reserve currency, access to liquidity is required to have an effective international monetary system. Literature defines a missing layer of …

Sustainable Water Management On Brownfields Sites, Ryan Fenwick, New England Environmental Finance Center

Sustainable Communities Capacity Building

This practice guide was developed by the Environmental Finance Center Network (EFCN) through the Capacity Building for Sustainable Communities program funded by the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the US Environmental Protection Agency. Through a cooperative agreement with HUD, EFCN is providing capacity building and technical assistance to recipients of grants from the federal Partnership for Sustainable Communities, an interagency collaboration that aims to help towns, cities, and regions develop in more economically, environmentally, and socially sustainable ways.

Analysis Of Bank Failure And Size Of Assets, Guancun Zhong

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

The financial health of the banking industry is an important prerequisite for economic stability and growth. Bank failures in the United States have run in cycles largely associated with the collapse of economic bubbles. The number of bank failures has increased dramatically over the last thirty years (Halling and Hayden, 2007). In this thesis, we try to address the following two questions: 1) What is the relationship, if any, between a bank's asset size and its likelihood of failures? 2) How can we use statistical tools to predict the numbers of bank failures in the future? Various modeling techniques are …

The Effect Of Treasury Auction Announcements On Interest Rates: 1990-1999, James Forest

James J Forest

In this study we examine the secondary-market response of U.S. Treasury interest rates to both the release of pre-auction auction supply announcements and post-auction details from U.S. Treasury auctions during the period of the 1990s. Rate changes are found to differ significantly on auction days. Pre-auction announcements of auction volumes are shown to affect rates significantly, in contrast with the findings of Wachtel and Young (1987) with respect to deficit announcements. We find that surprises in the release of bid-to-cover ratios affect Treasury rates significantly, while the surprises in the volume of noncompetitive bids appears to have little affect on …

The Effect Of Treasury Auction Announcements On Interest Rates: 1990-1999, James J. Forest

James J Forest

In this study we examine the secondary-market response of U.S. Treasury interest rates to both the release of pre-auction auction supply announcements and post-auction details from U.S. Treasury auctions during the period of the 1990s. Rate changes are found to differ significantly on auction days. Pre-auction announcements of auction volumes are shown to affect rates significantly, in contrast with the findings of Wachtel and Young (1987) with respect to deficit announcements. We find that surprises in the release of bid-to-cover ratios affect Treasury rates significantly, while the surprises in the volume of noncompetitive bids appears to have little affect on …

Green Infrastructure Resource Directory, New England Environmental Finance Center

Sustainable Communities Capacity Building

Green infrastructure is an approach for managing stormwater that uses vegetation and soils to capture and treat rainwater where it falls. Unlike single-purpose gray infrastructure, green infrastructure realizes multiple benefits at once, including flood mitigation, improved water and air quality, community beautification, provision of recreational opportunities, and energy and cost savings. This resource directory is intended to help communities design, implement, fund, and monitor green infrastructure practices and programs. It was compiled by the Environmental Finance Center Network through the Capacity Building for Sustainable Communities program funded by U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. …

Too Big Not To Fail: United States Corporate Media And The 2008 Financial Crisis, Justin Lars Bergh

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This thesis investigates United States newspaper coverage of the 2008 financial crisis, with a particular focus on the debate that took place in press coverage surrounding the proposed 700 billion dollar Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). Specifically, this study aims to understand how, when faced with a crisis that threatened hegemony, the state and economic elites, working in and through media, were able to effectively convince the subordinate classes to consent to state intervention aimed at perpetuating a financial system that has historically profited from the relative financial insecurity of the subordinate classes. In order to understand media's role in …

State Based Determinants Of Inward Fdi Flow In The Us Economy, Lucyna Kornecki, E. M. Ekanayake

Accounting, Economics, Finance, and Information Sciences - Daytona Beach

Inward foreign direct investment (FDI) represents an integral part of the US economy. The flow of international capital has been a key factor expanding economy. The inward US FDI constitutes important factor contributing to output growth in the US economy. This paper investigates factors affecting the inward FDI flow among fifty states of the United States. The analysis uses annual data for the period from 1997 to 2007. The study identifies several state-specific determinants of FDI and investigates the changes in their importance during the study period. Our results show that among the major determinants, the real per capita income, …

The Greek Financial Crisis: An Overview Of The Crisis In Entirety And Proposed Measures: Recommended Solutions And Results, Androniki Podaras

Honors College Theses

This paper examines the Greek financial crisis from 2009 in entirety and analyzes the best option for economic growth from this point forth. The history and culture of Greece is discussed, along with a background of the economy and several economic policies that led to the increased debt levels and the poor economic health of the country. The Gross Domestic Product of Greece and the inflation levels are analyzed to show the changes and signs of poor economic health, and one that was affected by the entry into the Eurozone in 2000.

Then, I discuss how this led to the …

The Household's Savings And The Industrial Production : A Time Series Analysis For Poland, Michal Wojewodzki

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

In this paper the author will examine the short and long-run causality between the growth rate of households‟ savings in the consolidated banking system in Poland, and the Polish economic growth rate (using the industrial production index as its proxy). This research paper will cover Poland‟s economic development over the periods 1997 to 2010 (in a quarterly approach). The main purpose of this paper is to shed light on the direction of the causality between saving and growth, so that the Polish policymakers can either focus on policies promoting growth or focus on saving policies in order to effectively and …

A Quantitative Study Of Influential Factors On Hibor Under Hong Kong's Linked Exchange Rate System, Jianbin Situ

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

Hong Kong Inter-Bank Offered Rate (HIBOR) is one of the most important interest rates in the Hong Kong money market. This paper studied some of the significant factors in determining HIBOR under Hong Kong‟s Linked Exchange Rate System using a VAR model to describe how various factors affect the movement of HIBOR. The result indicates that HIBOR, foreign exchange rate and M1 are correlated.

Herding Evidence In Chinese Stock Market : A Study Of The Relationship Between Stock Price Index And Trading Volume Based On Behavioral Finance Theory, Xiaofeng Zhao

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

Over the last couple decades, more evidence has been found supporting the notion that investors are not always rational. Herding behaviors have been observed in both the stock market crash1 and financial bubbles2, which were beyond the understanding of modern finance theory. In this paper, the herding phenomenon was explored in the Chinese stock market by the study of the relationship between stock prices and trading volume over the past 7 years. It was found that the change of price is statistically significant to have caused the change of trading volume, but the reverse is not true. Theoretically, this identifies …

The Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Failure From 2002 To 2005 : An Implicit Consensus Of Carry Trade, Yui Law

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

There are many literatures devoted to the study of the uncovered interest parity (UIP); however, majority of them focus on whether UIP exists and only a few concentrate on the pattern of the UIP failure. By using a panel VAR approach, this paper compares the intensive carry trade period, between 2002 and 2005, and the pre-intensive carry trade period, between 1998 and 2001. The results show that during the intensive carry trade period UIP failure was caused by the self-fulfilling behaviour of investors. High interest rate currencies made investors believed that the currencies would appreciate and bided their price even …

Analysis On Accrual-Based Models In Detecting Earnings Management, Tianran Chen

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

This paper analyzes the problems with the alternative accrual-based models in detecting earnings management. The researcher will focus on comparing the Jones Model and the Modified Jones Model, which are the two most frequently used model in empirical analysis nowadays. Earnings management is a kind of management which uses accounting techniques to meet the executives‟ needs for earnings; it is a widely debated topic, hence it is worth looking at. Experts and professionals in this area found many approaches to detect the earnings management; within these approaches are the accrual-based models which include the modified Jones model, which currently is …

How Can Saving Deposit Rate And Hang Seng Index Affect Housing Prices : An Empirical Study In Hong Kong Market, Tao Tang

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

The main objective of this paper is to examine the impact of savings deposit rate and Hang Seng index on real estate prices in Hong Kong Market. Two different periods are chosen to conduct this research: one period is the deflationary time, from 1998 to 2003, and the other is the reviving economical time from 2004 to 2007. The aim of this research is to examine the influences of these variables in different economic conditions, and find out whether there are any causal effects amongst them.

Evidences Of High Sensitivity Of Investors To Financial News After Crises : Cases Study Of Asian Financial Crisis And Sub-Prime, Yui Law

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

In the academic field of international stock market, some critics argue that, after having a global financial crisis, stock markets around the world will become more integrated. In fact, many researchers have put forward empirical works showing that the co-relation, or Granger-Causality, among different stock markets, strengthens comparatively at the post crisis period. This finding is rational; however, the explanation given for the increased co-movement after the crisis is not sufficient. The critics suggest that this increase is caused by the increase in international arbitrage activities and the higher degree of integration among markets. The Purpose of this paper is …

The Benefits Of Introducing A Housing Price Index Future In Hong Kong, Yingsi Feng

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

It is widely recognized and accepted that, financial innovation such as options and futures can help to manage risk, speculate, arbitrage and discover price in financial markets. As such, the researcher believes that the introduction of a Housing Price Index Futures in Hong Kong can greatly improve the investment environment in Hong Kong‟s property market. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to perform a feasibility study of the proposed Housing Price Index Futures in Hong Kong financial Market, to reveal the crucial need of this innovation for the betterment of the real estate market in Hong Kong, and the …

Implications Of A Managed Floating Exchange Rate System On The Interest-Rate Behavior Of Singapore, Jingjing Wei

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

Singapore and Hong Kong are two similar economies, but they have rather different monetary systems and exchange-rate regimes. Singapore’s managed floating exchange rate regime contrasts with Hong Kong’s currency board system (CBS) featured by the Hong Kong–United States dollar peg. In this paper, we appraise the implications of the managed floating exchange rate regimes on the interest-rate behavior of Singapore. We examine the Singapore-US interest differential under the Singapore’s exchange-rate regimes during the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), current Global Financial Crisis and none-crisis periods by using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model. We hope that the good performance of Singapore’s …

Citizens’ Satisfaction With The Sar Government's Overall Performance In Post-Colonial Hong Kong : Result Of Ols Analysis, Luo Yang

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

Through studying of the impact of the Hong Kong Special Administration Region government’s performance in various policy areas upon the level of citizen’s satisfaction with the government’s overall performance, this paper confirms the general wisdom that economic development is an important source of citizens’ satisfaction with the government’s performance. It further proves that, government’s performance on democratic development and freedom of speech and assembly are also very powerful variables in the model and its partial coefficients are impressive.

Analysis Of Hong Kong To Be An Offshore Financial Center Of Rmb, Qichao Song

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

In this article we aim to discuss the possibility and feasibility as well as the disadvantages and barriers for Hong Kong to be an offshore financial center of RMB. As the most biggest financial center in China, Hong Kong need to develop the RMB business for strengthening its position in the international competition. And we think that to become an RMB offshore financial center is not only an opportunity but also a responsibility for Hong Kong. We also give some suggestions on this issue.

An Experimental Study About Effective Factors Of First-Day Offer Pricing : Taking Stock Markets As An Example, Yi Liu

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

The author examines the literature with respect to the pricing of initial public offerings and focus upon the effective factors of pricing. Using a data base of all share offerings undertaken in Hong Kong over a one year period (in 2007), the author finds that there is considerable evidence for the proposition that large and well-capitalized companies tend to price their share offerings at a higher absolute level in order to get a higher level of first-day closing price. Using classical statistical methods, the author finds that the pricing strategy of offering companies is connected to shareholders’ desire of the …

The Fall Of Long-Term Capital Management, Xiaowei Guo

Lingnan Journal of Banking, Finance and Economics

The author examines the literature with respect to the pricing of initial public offerings and focus upon the effective factors of pricing. Using a data base of all share offerings undertaken in Hong Kong over a one year period (in 2007), the author finds that there is considerable evidence for the proposition that large and well-capitalized companies tend to price their share offerings at a higher absolute level in order to get a higher level of first-day closing price. Using classical statistical methods, the author finds that the pricing strategy of offering companies is connected to shareholders’ desire of the …

A Comparison Of Anti-Manipulation Rules In U.S. And Eu Electricity And Natural Gas Markets: A Proposal For A Common Standard, Shaun D. Ledgerwood, Dan Harris

Shaun D. Ledgerwood

In this paper, we describe the development and current status of anti-manipulation rules as they apply to wholesale electricity and natural gas markets in the United States and the European Union, including the institutions that are responsible for overseeing these rules. We then compare and contrast these jurisdictions to discuss similarities, differences, and potential gaps in coverage within and across their internal markets. We note that while the behavior prohibited by the U.S. and EU statutes is remarkably similar, there is in fact no common standard for defining market manipulation. The absence of a common EU/U.S. framework for examining manipulative …