Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

An Evaluation Of Decision Tree And Survival Analysis Techniques For Business Failure Prediction, Adrian Gepp

Adrian Gepp

Accurate business failure prediction models would be extremely valuable to many industry sectors, particularly in financial investment and lending. The potential value of such models has been recently emphasised by the extremely costly failure of high profile businesses in both Australia and overseas, such as HIH (Australia) and Enron (USA). Consequently, there has been a significant increase in interest in business failure prediction, from both industry and academia. Statistical models attempt to predict the failure or success of a business based on publicly available information about that business (or its industry and the overall economy), such as accounting ratios from …

Improving Pro Forma Analysis Through Better Terminal Value Estimates, Tom Arnold, David S. North, Roy A. Wiggins

Finance Faculty Publications

Basic pro forma analysis often estimates the terminal value input using a simple growing perpetuity assumption. While this assumption is easy to implement, it potentially creates an upward bias in some inputs leading to lower firm or project value outputs. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a more accurate way to estimate the terminal value input. Further, by allowing for multiple sales growth rates and by not restricting other input variables to necessarily grow at these same rates, a more accurate, flexible, compact, and thorough analysis is possible.

Analysis Of Per Capita Expenditures Of Suburbanizing Communities In Maine, New England Environmental Finance Center

Economics and Finance

This study analyzes per capita expenditure trends among selected fast-growing Maine towns from 1970-2004. The ten communities studied are termed as “suburbanizing” towns. This term is used to describe towns that over the past 30-40 years have been in the process of transition from rural to suburban – in terms of their population and housing densities, their forms of government, and the services they provide, as well as other characteristics.1 Such towns are of particular interest because they have been absorbing a healthy percentage of the state’s population growth during this time period, often at the expense of Maine’s service …

Stormwater Utility Fees: Considerations & Options For Interlocal Stormwater Working Group (Iswg), New England Environmental Finance Center

Water

Stormwater utilities are a concept whose time seems to have arrived. Established by relatively few communities in the 1970s as a method of funding flood control measures, stormwater utilities now exist in over 400 municipalities and counties throughout the United States. During the next 10 years, their numbers are expected to swell dramatically – by one estimate to over 2,000 by the year 2014.

The reasons for this growth are multifold. Federal stormwater regulations passed in the 1980s (Phase I of the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System Program, or NPDES), motivated many larger communities to seek alternative funding sources and …

Stormwater Utility Fees: Considerations & Options For Interlocal Stormwater Working Group (Iswg), New England Environmental Finance Center

Economics and Finance

Stormwater utilities are a concept whose time seems to have arrived. Established by relatively few communities in the 1970s as a method of funding flood control measures, stormwater utilities now exist in over 400 municipalities and counties throughout the United States. During the next 10 years, their numbers are expected to swell dramatically – by one estimate to over 2,000 by the year 2014.

The reasons for this growth are multifold. Federal stormwater regulations passed in the 1980s (Phase I of the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System Program, or NPDES), motivated many larger communities to seek alternative funding sources and …

An Excel Application For Valuing European Options With Monte Carlo Analysis, Tom Arnold, Stephen C. Henry

Finance Faculty Publications

By developing the basic intuition of how Monte Carlo simulation works within an Excel spreadsheet framework, this paper allows the undergraduate student to use Monte Carlo simulation techniques to price European style options without additional sophisticated software. Further, the skills and intuition developed provide the basis for much more complex simulation techniques.