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Using Macroeconomic Variables To Preserve The Predictive Power Of Bankruptcy Prediction Models Across Time, Edward Golas
Using Macroeconomic Variables To Preserve The Predictive Power Of Bankruptcy Prediction Models Across Time, Edward Golas
Honors Projects in Finance
At its core, bankruptcy prediction is a binary classification problem where a researcher attempts to model a company’s financial status, defined as either bankrupt or non-bankrupt, based upon a slew of financial ratios, market indicators and even macroeconomic variables. Several studies (Altman and McGrough, 1974; Moyer, 1977 and Mensah, 1984) have noted that such models tend to suffer reduced accuracy when predicting bankruptcy for time periods other than the one in which they were trained. A possible solution to this problem is to include macroeconomic variables in the model, since such variables fluctuate over time and are suspected of impacting …