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Kelly Fraction Estimation For Multiple Correlated Bets, William Chin
Kelly Fraction Estimation For Multiple Correlated Bets, William Chin
International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking
It is well-known that expected portfolio growth is maximized by maximizing
expected logarithmic utility. This investment criterion is known as Kelly betting.
It has many optimality properties but is considered to be risky. Blackjack
teams and other advantage gamblers practice a fraction of the Kelly optimal to
decrease risk. Some hedge fund managers are thought to practice according to
Kelly principles. We use a continuous multivariate Geometric Brownian motion
model and present an interval estimate for the historical fraction for a portfolio
of correlated bets, possibly including a risk-free asset. Historical data comes
from a range of sources and the …