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Articles 1 - 19 of 19
Full-Text Articles in Finance and Financial Management
Determinants Of Intra-Day Stock Price Change And Asymmetric Information, Christopher Hian Ann Ting
Determinants Of Intra-Day Stock Price Change And Asymmetric Information, Christopher Hian Ann Ting
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper presents a synthesized model of asymmetric information. An empirical analysis of more than 1,400 NYSE common stocks shows that trade direction is more important than volume in revealing the asymmetry. There is also evidence to suggest that signed duration reflects informed trading activity. We use the proposed measure of information asymmetry to study daily changes in the level of informed trading and find that earnings announcements narrow the information gap between the informed and the uninformed. On average, information asymmetry is largest at the beginning of the trading day and it decreases monotonically toward the closing bell. More …
The Implied Jump Risk Of Libor Rates, Kian Guan Lim, Christopher Ting, Mitch Warachka
The Implied Jump Risk Of Libor Rates, Kian Guan Lim, Christopher Ting, Mitch Warachka
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper examines implied parameters from options on LIBOR futures. Jump-diffusion models are found to offer superior in-sample and out-of-sample performance when compared to their pure diffusion counterpart. The need to incorporate stochastic jump magnitudes into LIBOR dynamics is also documented. In addition, empirical evidence reveals that the jump component in LIBOR rates is important for pricing their derivatives. Furthermore, variation in jump risk often coincides with Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions and a small subset of macroeconomic announcements.
Calibration Of The Structural Model Of Corporate Bond Spreads, Lerner Peter, Chunchi Wu
Calibration Of The Structural Model Of Corporate Bond Spreads, Lerner Peter, Chunchi Wu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
No abstract provided.
The Choice Of Trading Venue And Relative Price Impact Of Institutional Trading: Adrs Versus The Underlying Securities In Their Local Markets, Chakravarty Sugato, Christine X. Jiang, Chiraphol New Chiyachantana
The Choice Of Trading Venue And Relative Price Impact Of Institutional Trading: Adrs Versus The Underlying Securities In Their Local Markets, Chakravarty Sugato, Christine X. Jiang, Chiraphol New Chiyachantana
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
No abstract provided.
Separating The Effects Of Asymmetric Incentives And Inefficient Use Of Information On Financial Analysts' Consensus Earnings Forecast Errors, Stanimir Markov, Min Yen Tan
Separating The Effects Of Asymmetric Incentives And Inefficient Use Of Information On Financial Analysts' Consensus Earnings Forecast Errors, Stanimir Markov, Min Yen Tan
Research Collection School Of Accountancy
Prior research on financial analysts’ consensus earnings forecast errors has tended to explore either incentives-based or inefficient information use-based explanations for the properties of the analysts’ forecast errors. This has limited our understanding of financial analysts’ expectation formation process as incentives and cognitive biases are likely to simultaneously affect the properties of the analysts’ consensus forecast errors. Our main contribution is in separating these two effects. In particular, using consensus quarterly earnings forecast data, we document that analysts have asymmetric loss function and that they do not fully use information about past earnings and forecast errors in minimizing their expected …
Profiting From Mean-Reverting Yield Curve Trading Strategies, Choong Tze Chua, Winston T. H. Koh, Krishna Ramaswamy
Profiting From Mean-Reverting Yield Curve Trading Strategies, Choong Tze Chua, Winston T. H. Koh, Krishna Ramaswamy
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
A large class of fixed income trading strategies focuses on opportunities offered by the interest rate term structure. This paper studies a set of yield curve trading strategies that are based on the view that the yield curve mean-reverts to an unconditional curve. These mean-reverting trading strategies exploit deviations in the level, slope and curvature of the yield curve from historical norms. We consider cash-neutral trades with one-month holding periods. Some mean-reverting strategies were found to be highly profitable, and outperform, on a risk-adjusted basis before transaction costs, alternative strategies of an investment in the Lehman Brothers Bond index (by …
Implied Measures Of Relative Fund Performance, Steve Hogan, Mitchell Craig Warachka
Implied Measures Of Relative Fund Performance, Steve Hogan, Mitchell Craig Warachka
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We evaluate the relative performance of funds by conditioning their returns on the cross-section of portfolio characteristics across fund managers. Our implied procedure circumvents the need to specify benchmark returns or peer funds. Instead, fund-specific benchmarks for measuring selection and market timing ability are constructed. This technique is robust to herding as well as window dressing and mitigates survivorship bias. Empirically, the conditional information contained in portfolio weights defined by industry sectors, assets and geographical regions is critically important to the assessment of fund management. For each set of portfolio characteristics, we identify funds with success at either selecting securities …
A Dynamic Model For The Forward Curve, Choong Tze Chua, Foster Dean, Krishna Ramaswamy, Robert Stine
A Dynamic Model For The Forward Curve, Choong Tze Chua, Foster Dean, Krishna Ramaswamy, Robert Stine
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper develops and estimates a dynamic arbitrage-free model for the current forward curve as the sum of (i) an unconditional component, (ii) a maturity-specific component and (iii) a date-specific component. The model combines features of the Preferred Habitat model,the Expectation Hypothesis and affine yield curve models. We show how to construct alternative parametric examples of the three components from a sum of exponential functions, verify that the resulting forward curves satisfy the Heath-Jarrow-Morton conditions, and derive the risk-neutral dynamics for the purpose of pricing interest rate derivatives. We select a model from alternative affine examples that are fitted to …
On The Intertemporal Risk-Return Relation: A Bayesian Model Comparison Perspective, Leping Wang
On The Intertemporal Risk-Return Relation: A Bayesian Model Comparison Perspective, Leping Wang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The existing empirical studies indicate that inferences on the intertemporal relation between expected return and volatility are highly sensitive to empirical specifications of return dynamics. Glosten, Jagannathan, and Runkle (1993) attempt to resolve this confusing situation by examining several generalizations of the standard GARCH-M model. They conclude a negative risk-return relation solely based on the models that are identified in the first step through a variety of diagnostic tests as relatively “better” models. However, it has not been shown in their study whether the evidence supporting their first-step model selection decision is significant or not. To the extent the strength …
Jackknifing Bond Option Prices, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Jackknifing Bond Option Prices, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
Prices of interest rate derivative securities depend crucially on the mean reversion parameters of the underlying diffusions. These parameters are subject to estimation bias when standard methods are used. The estimation bias can be substantial even in very large samples and much more serious than the discretization bias, and it translates into a bias in pricing bond options and other derivative securities that is important in practical work. This article proposes a very general and computationally inexpensive method of bias reduction that is based on Quenouille's (1956; Biometrika, 43, 353-360) jackknife. We show how the method can be applied directly …
A Two-Stage Realized Volatility Approach To The Estimation For Diffusion Processes From Discrete Observations, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
A Two-Stage Realized Volatility Approach To The Estimation For Diffusion Processes From Discrete Observations, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper motivates and introduces a two-stage method for estimating diffusion processes based on discretely sampled observations. In the first stage we make use of the feasible central limit theory for realized volatility, as recently developed in Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2002), to provide a regression model for estimating the parameters in the diffusion function. In the second stage the in-fill likelihood function is derived by means of the Girsanov theorem and then used to estimate the parameters in the drift function. Consistency and asymptotic distribution theory for these estimates are established in various contexts. The finite sample performance of the …
On ‘‘Investment Decisions In The Theory Of Finance: Some Antinomies And Inconsistencies’’, Bert De Reyck
On ‘‘Investment Decisions In The Theory Of Finance: Some Antinomies And Inconsistencies’’, Bert De Reyck
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In the paper “Investment Decisions in the Theory of Finance: Some antinomies and inconsistencies”, Magni [Eur. J. Operat. Res. 137 (2002) 206] shows that using the net present value rule for making investment decisions can lead to inconsistencies and antinomies. The author claims that the so-called equivalent-risk tenet of finance, whereby an investor needs to compare an investment opportunity with an asset of equivalent risk, is impossible to implement. In this paper, we show that the main thesis of this paper is incorrect, and that finance theory, when applied correctly, can be used to value investment projects by comparing assets …
Corporate Divestitures And Spinoffs In Singapore, Francis Koh, Winston T. H. Koh, Benedict S. K. Koh
Corporate Divestitures And Spinoffs In Singapore, Francis Koh, Winston T. H. Koh, Benedict S. K. Koh
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper discusses the different forms of corporate divestitures, the motives for this corporate activity, and the empirical findings about their economic outcomes. A sample of corporate divestitures is also used to identify the main motivations in the Singapore context. We conclude that divestitures are carried out to achieve operational efficiency and gain incremental profitability and liquidity. Using share price data around the event-dates, we show that announcements of divestitures generally lead to significant increases in the returns of the parent company. The positive abnormal returns are related to the relative size of the divestitures and the computed accounting gains. …
The Performance Of Value And Growth Portfolios In East Asia Before The Asian Financial Crisis, David K. Ding, Jia-Leng Chua, Thomas A. Fetherston
The Performance Of Value And Growth Portfolios In East Asia Before The Asian Financial Crisis, David K. Ding, Jia-Leng Chua, Thomas A. Fetherston
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We examine value and growth portfolios in seven East Asian countries just before the onslaught of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. The value premiums in these countries, except in Indonesia, Taiwan, and Thailand, are found to be mainly positive. After controlling for firm size, risk, liquidity, and growth potential, we find higher returns among value stocks with a small firm size and low growth potential in Hong Kong and Malaysia. In Japan and Singapore, higher returns are found in growth portfolios with a small firm size and low growth potential. Growth stocks in Taiwan with a small firm size, and …
The Effects Of Decimalization On Return Volatility Components, Serial Correlation And Trading Costs, Yan He, Chunchi Wu
The Effects Of Decimalization On Return Volatility Components, Serial Correlation And Trading Costs, Yan He, Chunchi Wu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We examine the composition of return volatility, serial correlation, and trading costs before and after decimalization on the New York Stock Exchange. We decompose the variance of price changes into components associated with public news, rounding errors, and market-making frictions. We find that when stocks move from a fractional to a decimal trading system, the variance components due to market-making frictions and rounding errors decline significantly, whereas the component due to public news remains unchanged. The serial correlation of price changes weakens substantially after decimalization. The uninformed component of bid-ask spreads decreases significantly whereas the informed component has no significant …
Is Stellar Hedge Fund Performance For Real?, Robert Kosowski, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo
Is Stellar Hedge Fund Performance For Real?, Robert Kosowski, Narayan Y. Naik, Melvyn Teo
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We apply a robust bootstrap to evaluate the performance of a large universe of hedge funds. Our bootstrap estimates indicate that the performance of the top hedge funds cannot be attributed to chance alone. This is true even after adjusting for back fill bias, serial correlation, and structural breaks. Also, we find that hedge fund alpha differences persist over three year horizons. However, an investment strategy designed around this will run into difficulties as the persistence is often confined to small funds that are effectively closed to new inflows. Moreover, Bayesian estimates suggest that standard alphas may be overestimated by …
Statistical Arbitrage And Market Efficiency: Enhanced Theory, Robust Tests And Further Applications, Robert A. Jarrow, Melvyn Teo, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitch Warachka
Statistical Arbitrage And Market Efficiency: Enhanced Theory, Robust Tests And Further Applications, Robert A. Jarrow, Melvyn Teo, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitch Warachka
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Statistical arbitrage enables tests of market efficiency which circumvent the joint-hypotheses dilemma. This paper makes several contributions to the statistical arbitrage framework. First, we enlarge the set of statistical arbitrage opportunities in Hogan, Jarrow, Teo, and Warachka (2004) to avoid penalizing incremental trading profits with positive deviations from their expected value. Second, we provide a statistical methodology to remedy the lack of consistency and statistical power in their Bonferroni approach. In addition, this procedure allows for autocorrelation and non-normality in trading profits. Third, we apply our tests to a wide range of trading strategies based on stock momentum, stock value, …
Smooth Test For Density, Aurobindo Ghosh, Anil K Bera
Smooth Test For Density, Aurobindo Ghosh, Anil K Bera
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Recently econometricians have shifted their attention from point and interval forecasts to density forecasts because at the heart of market risk measurement is the forecast of the probability density functions of various financial variables. In this paper, we propose a formal test for density forecast evaluation based on Neyman's smooth test procedure. Apart from accepting or rejecting the tested model, this approach provides specific sources (such as the location, scale and shape of the distribution) of rejection, thereby helping in deciding possible modifications of the assumed model. Our applications to S&P 500 returns indicate capturing time-varying volatility and non-gaussianity significantly …
The Effects Of Sfas 131 Geographic Segment Disclosures On The Valuation Of Foreign Earnings, Ole-Kristian Hope, Tony Kang, Wayne Thomas, Florin Vasvari
The Effects Of Sfas 131 Geographic Segment Disclosures On The Valuation Of Foreign Earnings, Ole-Kristian Hope, Tony Kang, Wayne Thomas, Florin Vasvari
Research Collection School Of Accountancy
Foreign operations are becoming increasingly important for U.S. companies. We investigate whether the market’s valuation of foreign earnings is a function of the firm’s geographic segment disclosures. Specifically, we examine the effects of an increase in the number of geographic segments disclosed and the inclusion of earnings measures in geographic segment disclosures following the adoption of SFAS 131. We find strong evidence that our proxies for increased disclosure are positively associated with the valuation of foreign earnings. Our results are robust to a number of sensitivity analyses. Taken together, our results suggest that the pricing of foreign earnings is associated …