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The Tension Between Monetary Policy And Financial Stability: Evidence From Agency Mortgage Reits, W. Scott Frame, Eva Steiner
The Tension Between Monetary Policy And Financial Stability: Evidence From Agency Mortgage Reits, W. Scott Frame, Eva Steiner
Eva Steiner
The prolonged use of unconventional monetary policies since the financial crisis has resulted in concerns about the potential for such policy accommodation to undermine financial stability. Recent research identifying a “risk-taking channel” of monetary policy suggests that rapidly growing shadow banking organizations are of particular concern. In this paper, we study Agency mortgage REITs (Agency MREITs), which are specialized, tax-exempt financial institutions, whose rapid growth raised systemic risk concerns by the Financial Stability Oversight Council. After controlling for key variables that drive the Agency MREIT business (level, slope, and expected volatility of the term structure as well as the mortgage …
Extension Risk In Commercial Mortgages, Charles Tu, Mark Eppli
Extension Risk In Commercial Mortgages, Charles Tu, Mark Eppli
Mark J. Eppli
Historical data and Monte Carlo simulation is used to examine the likelihood of loan extension and potential losses associated with extension. It is found that extension probability is highly sensitive to property NOI growth, to NOI volatility, to the amortization schedule, and to the loan term. It is found that extension risk is largely unaffected by changing credit spreads, changing yield curve assumptions, and changing term default assumptions. It is found that changing the underwriting standards affects the probability of loan extension in a somewhat muted way. It is estimated that the loss during extension is approximately 2%-3% of the …
The Delinquency Of Subprime Mortgages, Michelle A. Danis, Anthony Pennington-Cross
The Delinquency Of Subprime Mortgages, Michelle A. Danis, Anthony Pennington-Cross
Anthony Pennington-Cross
The lag between the time that a borrower stops making payments on a mortgage and the termination of the loan plays a critical role in the costs borne by both borrower and lender on defaulted loans. While the prior literature uses a multinomial logit approach, statistical tests indicate that we cannot accept the associated assumption of Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives (IIA). Using a nested logit specification our results suggest that the recipe for delinquency involves young loans to low credit score borrowers with low or no documentation in housing markets with moderately volatile and flat or declining nominal house prices.
The Impact Of Local Predatory Lending Laws On The Flow Of Subprime Credit, Giang Ho, Anthony Pennington-Cross
The Impact Of Local Predatory Lending Laws On The Flow Of Subprime Credit, Giang Ho, Anthony Pennington-Cross
Anthony Pennington-Cross
Local authorities in North Carolina, and subsequently in at least 23 other states, have enacted laws intending to reduce predatory and abusive lending. While there is substantial variation in the laws, they typically extend the coverage of the Federal Home Ownership and Equity Protection Act (HOEPA) by including home purchase and open-end mortgage credit, by lowering annual percentage rate (APR) and fees and points triggers, and by prohibiting or restricting the use of balloon payments and prepayment penalties. Empirical results show that the typical local predatory lending law tends to reduce rejections, while having little impact on the flow (application …
The Duration Of Foreclosures In The Subprime Mortgage Market: A Competing Risks Model With Mixing, Anthony Pennington-Cross
The Duration Of Foreclosures In The Subprime Mortgage Market: A Competing Risks Model With Mixing, Anthony Pennington-Cross
Anthony Pennington-Cross
This paper examines what happens to mortgages in the subprime mortgage market once foreclosure proceeding are initiated. A multinomial logit model that allows for the interdependence of the possible outcomes or risks (cure, partial cure, paid off, and real estate owned) through the correlation of associated unobserved heterogeneities is estimated. The results show that the duration of foreclosures is impacted by many factors including contemporaneous housing market conditions, the prior performance of the loan (prior delinquency), and the state-level legal environment.