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What Microeconomic Fundamentals Drove Global Oil Prices During 1986–2020?, A. G. Malliaris, Mary Malliaris

School of Business: Faculty Publications and Other Works

The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 caused major economic disturbances in the oil market. In this paper, we consider five variables that describe the microeconomics of the supply of and demand for oil, and evaluate their importance before, during and after the global financial crisis. We consider five dissimilar regimes during the period of January 1986 to the end of 2020: two regimes prior to the global financial crisis, the regime during the crisis, and two regimes after the crisis. The main hypothesis tested is that oil fundamentals of supply and demand remained important, even though the five regimes were …