Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Modeling Empirical Stock Market Behavior Using A Hybrid Agent-Based Dynamical Systems Model, Daniel A. Cline, Grant T. Aguinaldo, Christian Lemp

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

We describe the development and calibration of a hybrid agent-based dynamical systems model of the stock market that is capable of reproducing empirical market behavior. The model consists of two types of trader agents, fundamentalists and noise traders, as well as an opinion dynamic for the latter (optimistic vs. pessimistic). The trader agents switch types stochastically over time based on simple behavioral rules. A system of ordinary differential equations is used to model the stock price as a function of the states of the trader agents. We show that the model can reproduce key stylized facts (e.g., volatility clustering and …