Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Structural Identification Of Pair Trades, Yi Liu

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation examines the structural identification of pair trades based on company fundamentals, stock price paths, and company’s capacity to transform fundamentals into value. The dissertation consists of four chapters. Chapter 1 lays the foundation for the study of pair identification. It designs the pair trading procedure and defines the trading performance measure. It also reviews and compares the performance of commonly used pair identification metrics in the literature, including normalized price squared distance, return correlation, and co-integration tests. Among the three metrics, the squared price distance represents the most effective metric and generates the best pair trading performance. The …

Cointegration And Statistical Arbitrage Of Precious Metals, Judge Van Horn

Finance Undergraduate Honors Theses

When talking about financial instruments correlation is often thrown around as a measure of the relation between two securities. An often more useful or tradeable measure is cointegration. Cointegration is the measure of two securities tendency to revert to an average price over time. In other words, cointegration ignores directionality and only cares about the distance between two securities. For a mean reversion strategy such as statistical arbitrage cointegration proves to be a far more reliable statistical measure of mean reversion, and while it is more reliable than correlation it still has its own problems. One thing to consider is …

Essays On Market Linkages In Nafta And Latin American Countries: Studies Of Cointegration And Contagion, John K. Tarwater

Theses and Dissertations

The globalization of securities in recent years has led to an increase in market linkages. These linkages are strong among countries that have entered into bilateral and multilateral trade agreements. I investigate the linkages of stock markets in NAFTA countries by exploring their cointegrating relationship, and I explore market linkages in Latin America by showing evidence of financial contagion between Brazil and her Latin American neighbors.

In the first essay, I employ a vector error correction model to examine the linkages between price stock indexes of NAFTA countries that have been segregated into tiers based on market capitalization. In each …

Dynamic Interrelationships In Returns And Volatilities Among Shipping Freight Markets, Avinash Kumar

World Maritime University Dissertations

This paper explores and analyzes the return lead-lag relationships and volatility transmission among dry bulk, container and tanker shipping freight market after the financial crisis in 2008. However, there are few numbers of studies that investigates such interactions between shipping freight markets, but no studies that also consider potential linkage between container and tanker freight market. This study fills the gap by examining lead-lag and volatility spillover effects among these three shipping freight markets. The Granger causality test and the co-integration analysis are applied to investigate the lead-lag relationship among the Baltic dry index (BDI), Shanghai (export) containerized freight index …

An Empirical Analysis Of The Relationship Between Capital Flows And The Real Exchange Rate In India, Shashank Goel

International Journal of Applied Management and Technology

This paper analyzes the relationship between the net capital flows (NCFs) and other fundamentals and the real exchange rate (RER) in India consequent to the liberalization of the capital account in 1990s for the period 1996–1997 to 2012–2013 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach to cointegration. Most studies in the literature emphasize the role of a number of real and monetary variables and domestic policies in determination of RER. But there is no consensus on what actually determines the RER. The estimation includes NCFs, government consumption expenditure, terms of trade, trade openness, Gross Domestic Product growth rate, change in foreign …

Reits And Stock Market Cointegration, Jessie E. Felix

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Real Estate is popular among investors looking for attractive total returns, predictable price movements, and low correlations to the general equity markets. The financial crisis of 2007 led by real estate mortgage defaults led to a universal bear market, and a credit freeze which impacted REITs ability to raise capital. REITs long viewed perception as a distinct asset class was questioned as a result. Research analyzing REITs long run trends find evidence of an existing long run relationship between REITs, and the S&P. This paper employs the same cointegration framework of prior studies using a longer sample period, and favors …

Exchange Rate Adjustment And Output In South-East Asia, Kamal P. Upadhyaya, Robert Ranish, Neetu Kaushik, Rabindra Bhandari

Finance Faculty Publications

This paper studies the effect of currency devaluation on aggregate output level in South- East Asian countries using panel data from Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines for a period from 1980 to 2010. An empirical model that includes monetary, fiscal and exchange rate variables is developed. Two versions of the model, one with real exchange rate and another with nominal exchange rate and foreign-to-domestic price ratio are estimated. An error correction model is developed and the time series properties of the panel data are diagnosed before estimating the model. The estimated results suggest that currency devaluations are contractionary in …

Intraday Price Discovery In Emerging Equity Market: Analysis Of Set50 Index, Set 50 Index Futures And Thaidex Set50 (Tdex), Chiraphol New Chiyachantana, Julaluck Choochuay, Tanakorn Likitapiwat

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study employs Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), information share and conditional information share methods to investigate price discovery in SET50 Index (cash index), SET50 Index Futures (futures index) and ThaiDex SET50 (exchange traded fund). Our findings indicate that there exists a long run relationship among three markets and a multi-market trading of derivatives markets and its underlying asset helps improve price efficiency. With respect to the degree of price formation process, SET50 Index Futures contributes most in price discovery process, followed by SET50 Index and ThaiDex SET50.

Reit Etfs Performance During The Financial Crisis., Stoyu Ivanov

Faculty Publications

In this study the “disintegration hypothesis” is tested. It is examined whether the Vanguard Real Estate Investment Trust and iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate Index Fund exchange traded funds disintegrate from their underlying indexes during the recent financial crisis. Failure to support the “disintegration hypothesis” of the exchange traded fund and underlying index is found. It is also found that the Vanguard Real Estate Investment Trust exchange traded fund is consistently cointegrated with its underlying index the MSCI US REITs Index, before, during and after the financial crisis. It is also found that the iShares Dow Jones US Real …

Evaluating Economic Relationships Of Stapled And Traditional Australian Reits, Jaime Yong, David Allen, Lee Lim

Research outputs 2011

The number of Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts (AREITs) trading as stapled securities has grown significantly in the past ten years. Though this type of trust structure improves the income growth to investors, stapled AREITs are riskier relative to traditional AREITs that act primarily as holding companies of property assets. Academic literature on REIT characteristics has found that these assets have become less integrated with bonds and more with stocks. An increasingly mature AREIT market implies that prices of these assets have become more integrated with values of the underlying direct property investments. This study employs quarterly prices over 30 …

Testing Twin Deficits Hypothesis Using Vars And Variance Decomposition, Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, Evan Lau, Ahmed M. Khalid

Ahmed Khalid

This paper examines the twin deficits hypothesis in the ASEAN countries. The major findings of this paper are the following. (1) Long run relationships are detected between budget and current account deficits. (2) The Keynesian view fits well for Thailand since the causality runs from budget deficit to current account deficit. For Indonesia, the causality runs in an opposite direction while the empirical results indicate that a bidirectional pattern of causality exists for Malaysia and the Philippines. (3) We also found support for an indirect causal relationship that runs from budget deficit to higher interest rates, and higher interest rates …

The Dynamic Relationship Between Stock Prices And Exchange Rates: Evidence From Four Transition Economies, Lucia Morales

Conference papers

This article examines the dynamic relationship between exchange rates and stock prices in four Easter European markets, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, using stock price and exchange rate data from these countries, as well as stock prices from the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom. The data set consists of daily data over a 7 year period from 1999 to 2006. Both the long-run and the short-run association between these variables are analyzed. We employed the Johansen cointegration technique, Vector Error Correction Modeling and the standard Granger causality test to analyze the relationship between these two financial variables. …

A Monetary Union In East Asia: What Does The Common Cycles Approach Tell?, K Sato, David E. Allen, Zhaoyong Zhang

Research outputs pre 2011

There is controversy about whether a monetary union is feasible in the East Asian region. Amongst the criteria for establishing a monetary union, most of the existing studies focus on the symmetric issue of fundamental shocks and the extent of correlations by applying the Blanchard and Quah (1989) structural vector autoregression (VAR) technique, which includes the firstdifferenced variables in the model and examines only bilateral relationships. When forming a monetary union, the member countries need to renounce their monetary policy autonomy. If shocks to respective economies are symmetric, the cost of relinquishing the discretionary monetary policy is likely to be …

Fundamental Approach To Exchange Rate Modeling: Toward An Augmented Theory Of Purchasing Power Parity, Jianzhou Zhu

Doctoral Dissertations

In this dissertation, I test the homogeneity and symmetry conditions of PPP by applying the Johansen multivariate cointegration methodology to quarterly data for six countries. I perform the tests in the framework of both a traditional version and an augmented version of PPP. The results of tests on the traditional version of PPP reveal that in all cases the theoretical PPP-vector [1, 1, −1] is not contained in the cointegrating space. This finding is consistent with that of existing literature and indicates the empirical failure of the homogeneity and symmetry conditions of PPP. However, when the traditional PPP is augmented …

An Examination Of The Relationship Between Stock Index Cash And Futures Markets: A Cointegration Approach, Michael A. Pizzi, Andrew J. Economopoulos, Heather M. O'Neill

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

The existence of price discovery, market efficiency and market stability associated with spot and futures markets continues as a prominent discussion among academics, practitioners and regulators. Numerous papers examine the role of price discovery in the futures markets for various types of commodities and financial assets. Generally, the studies by Garbade and Silber (1983), Herbst, McCormack and West (1987), Kawaller, Koch and Koch (1987) and Schroeder and Goodwin (1991) indicate that price discovery occurs more significantly in the futures market compared to the cash market.