Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Is Regime Switching In Stock Returns Important In Portfolio Decisions?, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The stock market displays regime switching between upturns and downturns. This paper provides a Bayesian framework for making portfolio decisions that takes this regime switching into account, together with asset pricing model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. The findings reveal that the economic value of accounting for regimes is substantially independent of whether or not model and parameter uncertainties are incorporated: the certainty-equivalent losses associated with ignoring regime switching are generally above 2% per year and can be as high as 10%. These results suggest that the more realistic regime switching model is fundamentally different from the commonly used single-state model, …

Further Examination Of Equity Returns And Seasonal Depression, Steven D. Dolvin, Mark K. Pyles, Qun Wu

Scholarship and Professional Work - Business

Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD) induces investors to shift resources away from risky investments (such as equity) and towards safer alternatives (such as fixed income) during the Fall, while stimulating the opposite action in the Winter. Existing studies, however, fail to account for the possibility that SAD could further motivate investors to shift exposure among different subsets of equity, rather than simply across broad asset categories. We explore this possibility by examining the impact of SAD on the returns of “safe” and “risky” equity sectors (i.e., industries), as well as on equity at different levels of market capitalization. We find the …

Should Individual Investors Use Technical Trading Rules To Attempt To Beat The Market?, Thomas S. Coe, Kittipong Laosethakul

WCBT Faculty Publications

Problem statement: Despite widespread academic acceptance of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, some stock traders still use technical trading rules in an attempt to beat the market. Approach: This study looked at four trading rules, namely, the arithmetic moving average, the relative strength index, a stochastic oscillator and its moving average. These trading rules compare the relationship of current prices to past price patterns to generate a signal when to buy and sell stocks. The trading rules were tested over the years 2000-2009, a period of time that exhibited bull and bear markets, to determine if traders could actively …

Is Regime Switching In Stock Returns Important In Asset Allocations?, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The stock market displays regime switching between upturns and downturns. This paper provides a Bayesian framework for making portfolio decisions that takes this regime switching into account, together with asset pricing model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty. The findings reveal that the economic value of accounting for regimes is substantially independent of whether or not model and parameter uncertainties are incorporated: the certainty-equivalent losses associated with ignoring regime switching are generally above 2% per year, and can be as high as 10%. These results suggest that the more realistic regime switching model is fundamentally different from the commonly used single-state model, …

Lessons Learned From The “Oracle Of Omaha” Warren Buffett, Todd A. Finkle

Todd A Finkle