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Bond Rating Agencies And Stock Analysts: Who Knows What When?, Louis H. Ederington, Jeremy C. Goh
Bond Rating Agencies And Stock Analysts: Who Knows What When?, Louis H. Ederington, Jeremy C. Goh
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Both bond ratings agencies and stock analysts evaluate publicly traded companies and communicate their opinions to investors. Comparing the timelines of each, it is found that Granger causality flows both ways. While most bond downgrades are preceded by declines in actual and forecasting earnings, both actual earnings and forecasts of future earnings tend to fall following downgrades. Although part of this post-downgrade forecast revision can be attributed to negative news regarding actual earnings, most appears to be reaction to the downgrade itself. Little change is found in actual earnings following upgrades. Analysts, however, tend to increase their forecasts of future …
Searching For Periods Of Volatility: A Study Of The Behavior Of Volatility In Thai Stocks, Theodore Bos, David K. Ding, Thomas A. Fetherston
Searching For Periods Of Volatility: A Study Of The Behavior Of Volatility In Thai Stocks, Theodore Bos, David K. Ding, Thomas A. Fetherston
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper improves the precision of the useful new procedure of Inclán and Tiao (1994) that estimates variance shift points in a time series. It accomplishes this by incorporating the evidence of Bos and Fetherston (1992) that the linear Brown, Durbin, and Evans (Brown et al., 1975) critical CUSUM of squares boundaries [used by Inclán and Tiao] produce an understatement of instability at the data end points. This is solved by Tanizaki (1995) which, like Bos and Fetherston (1992) and Bos and Fetherston (1995), uses the fact that the CUSUM of squares statistic follows a beta distribution. This study uses …