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Articles 1 - 30 of 71
Full-Text Articles in Finance and Financial Management
An Ai Approach To Measuring Financial Risk, Lining Yu, Wolfgang Karl Hardle, Lukas Borke, Thijs Benschop
An Ai Approach To Measuring Financial Risk, Lining Yu, Wolfgang Karl Hardle, Lukas Borke, Thijs Benschop
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
AI artificial intelligence brings about new quantitative techniques to assess the state of an economy. Here, we describe a new measure for systemic risk: the Financial Risk Meter (FRM). This measure is based on the penalization parameter (λ" role="presentation" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal; font-size: 18px; text-indent: 0px; text-align: left; text-transform: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-spacing: normal; overflow-wrap: normal; white-space: nowrap; float: none; direction: ltr; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0px; min-height: 0px; border: 0px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; position: relative;">λλ) of a linear quantile lasso regression. The FRM is calculated by taking the average …
Chief Financial Officer Demographic Characteristics And Fraudulent Financial Reporting In China, Jinghui Sun, Pamela Kent, Baolei Qi, Jiwei Wang
Chief Financial Officer Demographic Characteristics And Fraudulent Financial Reporting In China, Jinghui Sun, Pamela Kent, Baolei Qi, Jiwei Wang
Research Collection School Of Accountancy
We investigate whether management's cognitions, values and perceptions are associated with fraud for 18 863 firm-years for Chinese listed firms from 2000 to 2014. Demographic characteristics of the chief financial officer (CFO) are used as proxies for management's cognitions, values and perceptions. We find that fraudulent financial reporting is higher when CFOs are younger, male, and have lower education backgrounds. An analysis of inflated earnings, fictitious assets, material omissions and other material misstatements provide similar results, with the exception that CFOs with higher education levels are associated with more inflated earnings. Accounting and Finance
Regulations And Brain Drain: Evidence From Wall Street Star Analysts’ Career Choices, Yuyan Guan, Congcong Li, Hai Lu, Franco Wong
Regulations And Brain Drain: Evidence From Wall Street Star Analysts’ Career Choices, Yuyan Guan, Congcong Li, Hai Lu, Franco Wong
Research Collection School Of Accountancy
The Global Settlement, along with related regulations in the early 2000s, prohibits the use of investment banking revenue to fund equity research and compensate equity analysts. We find that all-star analysts from investment banks are more likely to exit the profession or move to the buy side after the regulations. The departed star analysts’ earnings revisions and stock recommendations are more informative than those of the remaining analysts who followed the same companies. To the extent that star analysts are superior to their nonstar counterparts in terms of research ability and ability to inform the market, the exit of star …
Chasing Private Information, Marcin Kacperczyk, Emiliano Sebastian Pagnotta
Chasing Private Information, Marcin Kacperczyk, Emiliano Sebastian Pagnotta
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Using over 5,000 trades unequivocally based on nonpublic information about firm fundamentals, we find that asymmetric information proxies display abnormal values on days with informed trading. Volatility and volume are abnormally high, whereas illiquidity is low, in equity and option markets. Daily returns reflect the sign of private signals, but bid-ask spreads are lower when informed investors trade. Market makers' learning under event uncertainty and limit orders help explain these findings. The cross-section of information duration indicates that traders select days with high uninformed volume. Evidence from the U.S. SEC Whistleblower Reward Program and the FINRA involvement addresses selection concerns.
Center Of Volume Mass: Does Options Trading Predict Stock Returns?, Gennaro Bernile, Fei Gao, Jianfeng Hu
Center Of Volume Mass: Does Options Trading Predict Stock Returns?, Gennaro Bernile, Fei Gao, Jianfeng Hu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We examine whether the distribution of trades along the set of strike prices of option contracts on the same stock contains information about underlying price discovery. We show that option traders' demand for delta exposure drives the volume-weighted average strike-spot price ratio (VWKS). In turn, we find that VWKS predicts underlying returns and anticipates the flow of fundamental information about the stock. The return predictability is greater but not limited to stocks with higher information asymmetries and arbitrage costs, and becomes stronger ahead of value relevant news. Overall, options trading appears to play an important informational role for underlying markets.
Long-Term Index Fund Ownership And Stock Returns, Ekkehart Boehmer, Wanshan Song, Ashish Tiwari, Zhe Zhang
Long-Term Index Fund Ownership And Stock Returns, Ekkehart Boehmer, Wanshan Song, Ashish Tiwari, Zhe Zhang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We examine the implications of stock ownership by index funds for shareholder value. Consistent with recent findings that stock ownership by passive funds contributes to improved governance, we document a strong positive relation between the duration of passive fund holdings and subsequent stock performance. This positive relation is more pronounced for firms with recent poor performance, and for smaller firms and firms with higher allocation weights in passive funds’ portfolios. Our results support the view that index funds, although passive in their investment decisions, successfully contribute to long-term value creation by actively engaging with firms on matters of governance.
Do Real Estate Agents Have Information Advantages In Housing Markets?, Sumit Agarwal, Jia He, Tien Foo Sing, Changcheng Song
Do Real Estate Agents Have Information Advantages In Housing Markets?, Sumit Agarwal, Jia He, Tien Foo Sing, Changcheng Song
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We use a large housing transaction data set in Singapore to study whether real estate agents use information advantages to buy houses at bargain prices. Agents bought their own houses at prices that are 2.54% lower than comparable houses bought by other buyers. Consistent with information asymmetries, agent buyers have more information advantages in less informative environments, and agent buyers are more likely to buy houses from agent sellers. Agent discounts are from both “cherry picking” and bargaining power, and bargaining power contributes more to the agent discounts. Agents’ advantage consists in their information of available houses and previous purchase …
The Unexpected Activeness Of Passive Investors: A Worldwide Analysis Of Etfs, Si Cheng, Massimo Massa, Hong Zhang
The Unexpected Activeness Of Passive Investors: A Worldwide Analysis Of Etfs, Si Cheng, Massimo Massa, Hong Zhang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The global ETF industry provides more complicated investment vehicles than low-cost index trackers. Instead, we find that the real investments of ETFs may deviate from their benchmarks to leverage informational advantages (which leads to a surprising stock-selection ability) and to help affiliated OEFs through cross-trading. These effects are more prevalent in ETFs domiciled in Europe. Moreover, ETF flows seem to respond to additional risk. These results have important normative implications for consumer protection and financial stability. (JEL G20)
Optimal Design And Ownership Structures Of Innovative Retail Payment Systems, Zhiling Guo, Dan Ma
Optimal Design And Ownership Structures Of Innovative Retail Payment Systems, Zhiling Guo, Dan Ma
Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems
In response to the Fintech trend, an ongoing debate in the banking industry is how to design the new-generation interbank retail payment and settlement system. We propose a two-stage analytical model that takes into account the value-risk tradeoff in the new payment system design, as well as banks’ participation incentives and adoption timing decisions. We find that, as the system base value increases, banks tend to synchronize their investment and adoption decisions. When the system base value is low and banks are heterogeneous, bank association ownership maximizes social welfare. When both the system base value and bank heterogeneity are moderate, …
Quantum Consensus, Jorden Seet, Paul Griffin
Quantum Consensus, Jorden Seet, Paul Griffin
Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems
In this paper, we propose a novel consensus mechanism utilizing the quantum properties of qubits. This move from classical computing to quantum computing is shown to theoretically enhance the scalability and speed of distributed consensus as well as improve security and be a potential solution for the problem of blockchain interoperability. Using this method may circumvent the common problem known as the Blockchain Trilemma, enhancing scalability and speed without sacrificing de-centralization or byzantine fault tolerance. Consensus speed and scalability is shown by removing the need for multicast responses and exploiting quantum properties to ensure that only a single multicast is …
Placing A Value On Impact Investing, Singapore Management University
Placing A Value On Impact Investing, Singapore Management University
Perspectives@SMU
Investors are willing to accept lower financial returns in order to generate positive externalities. How much less? Up to almost four percentage points
Automated Theme Search In Ico Whitepapers, Chuanjie Fu, Andrew Koh, Paul Griffin
Automated Theme Search In Ico Whitepapers, Chuanjie Fu, Andrew Koh, Paul Griffin
Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems
The authors explore how topic modeling can be used to automate the categorization of initial coin offerings (ICOs) into different topics (e.g., finance, media, information, professional services, health and social, natural resources) based solely on the content within the whitepapers. This tool has been developed by fitting a latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) model to the text extracted from the ICO whitepapers. After evaluating the automated categorization of whitepapers using statistical and human judgment methods, it is determined that there is enough evidence to conclude that the LDA model appropriately categorizes the ICO whitepapers. The results from a two-population proportion test …
From Bitcoin To Blockchain, And Back Again, Danielle Szetho, Rene Michau
From Bitcoin To Blockchain, And Back Again, Danielle Szetho, Rene Michau
Asian Management Insights
In the context of the current FinTech revolution, it remains to be seen how the wealth of knowledge on new technologies and business models in the area of finance can effectively and efficiently drive change and seize the new opportunities being created in the vast and fast-paced world of digital and crypto-assets.
Irrational Exuberance: Panic Rooms And Flutters In Financial Markets, Vijay Fafat
Irrational Exuberance: Panic Rooms And Flutters In Financial Markets, Vijay Fafat
Asian Management Insights
As the memory of the 2008 financial crash fades, there are cautionary thoughts on why we tend to overshoot in our optimism, and why even genius comes to grief in the face of capricious, mercurial capital markets.
The Trend In Short Selling And The Cross Section Of Stock Returns, Zhaobo Zhu, Xinrui Duan, Jun Tu
The Trend In Short Selling And The Cross Section Of Stock Returns, Zhaobo Zhu, Xinrui Duan, Jun Tu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper documents that stocks with a decreasing (increasing) trend in their short selling as proxied by the long-term change in short interest experience significant and positive (negative) abnormal returns. Moreover, the positive abnormal returns have larger absolute values and are more persistent. The return predictability of the trend in short selling is not subsumed by the level of short interest and other well-known determinants of stock returns. Investor sentiment does not affect the profitability of the trend strategy. Our results suggest that market participants underreact to public information on short interest and that short sellers are sophisticated investors.
Relative Strength Over Investment Horizons And Stock Returns, Zhaobo Zhu, Xinrui Duan, Jun Tu
Relative Strength Over Investment Horizons And Stock Returns, Zhaobo Zhu, Xinrui Duan, Jun Tu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In this article, the authors propose a simple and novel measure of relative strength over investment horizons that synthesizes short- and intermediate-term price information. The relative-strength measure compares the short-term price trend with the intermediate-term price trend. The relative strength strategy generates substantial profits, which are greater than a simple sum of traditional short-term reversal and momentum profits. The superior performance of the relative strength strategy is evident after risk adjustments for various factor models and is robust across subperiods and different market conditions. These findings seem consistent with investor conservatism and the idea that investors are slow to adjust …
Etf Momentum, Frank Weikai Li, Song Wee Melvyn Teo, Chloe Chunliu Yang
Etf Momentum, Frank Weikai Li, Song Wee Melvyn Teo, Chloe Chunliu Yang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We document economically large momentum profits when sorting ETFs on returns over the past two to four years. A value-weighted, long-short strategy based on ETF momentum delivers Carhart (1997) four-factor alphas of up to 1.20% per month. Neither cross-sectional stock momentum nor co-variation with macroeconomic and liquidity risks can explain ETF momentum. Instead, the post-holding period returns are most consonant with the behavioral story of delayed overreaction. While ETF momentum survives multiple adjustments for transaction costs, it may be difficult to arbitrage as the profits are volatile and concentrated in ETFs with high idiosyncratic volatility or that hold low-analyst-coverage stocks.
The Role Of Social Trust In Times Of Crisis, Singapore Management University
The Role Of Social Trust In Times Of Crisis, Singapore Management University
Perspectives@SMU
Research shows social trust improves the resilience of firms to banking crises
Trust And Local Bias, Chi Shen Wei, Lei Zhang
Trust And Local Bias, Chi Shen Wei, Lei Zhang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper examines the effect of social trust on local bias. Our evidence suggests that institutional investors located in high-trust regions of the United States exhibit lower local bias. Moreover, we find that high-trust investors are better diversified, suggesting that trust helps accomplish greater diversification. The results are not due to firm, demographic, or local economic characteristics. Additional analysis reveals that the documented informational advantage in local holdings exists only in low-trust regions. We show that this finding is consistent with a trust explanation.
Understanding The Fundamentals Of Freight Markets Volatility, Kian Guan Lim, Nikos K. Nomikos, Nelson Yap
Understanding The Fundamentals Of Freight Markets Volatility, Kian Guan Lim, Nikos K. Nomikos, Nelson Yap
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We analyse empirically the drivers of freight market volatility. We use several macroeconomic and shipping-related factors that are known to affect the supply and demand for shipping and examine their impact on the term structure of freight options implied volatilities (IV). We find that the level of IVs is affected by the level of the spot rate, the slope of the forward curve, as well as by both demand and supply factors, especially the former. We demonstrate that the relation between the volatility of futures prices and the slope of the forward curve is non-monotonic and convex, that is, it …
The Flash Crash: A Cautionary Tale About Highly Fragmented Markets, Albert J. Menkveld, Bart Zhou Yueshen
The Flash Crash: A Cautionary Tale About Highly Fragmented Markets, Albert J. Menkveld, Bart Zhou Yueshen
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
A breakdown of cross-market arbitrage activity could make markets more fragile and result in price crashes. We provide suggestive evidence for this novel channel based on a high-frequency analysis of the most salient crash in recent history: The Flash Crash. We further show that such an event can be extremely costly for a large seller trading in a particular venue as the seller effectively relies on local liquidity supply only. These findings highlight the vulnerability of today's highly fragmented markets.
Show Me The (Value Of) Money!, Singapore Management University
Show Me The (Value Of) Money!, Singapore Management University
Perspectives@SMU
Plenty of adults are not financially literate. Teaching children early can make a big difference
Wti Crude Oil Option Implied Var And Cvar: An Empirical Application, Giovanni Barone-Adesi, Marinela Adriana Finta, Chiara Legnazzi, Carlo Sala
Wti Crude Oil Option Implied Var And Cvar: An Empirical Application, Giovanni Barone-Adesi, Marinela Adriana Finta, Chiara Legnazzi, Carlo Sala
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Using option market data we derive naturally forward-looking, non-parametric and model-free risk estimates, three desired characteristics hardly obtainable using historical returns. The option-implied measures are only based on the first derivative of the option price with respect to the strike price, bypassing the difficult task of estimating the tail of the return distribution. We estimate and backtest the 1%, 2.5%, and 5% WTI crude oil futures option-implied value at risk and conditional value at risk for the turbulent years 2011–2016 and for both tails of the distribution. Compared with risk estimations based on the filtered historical simulation methodology, our results …
The World Predictive Power Of U.S. Equity Market Skewness Risk, Jian Chen, Fuwei Jiang, Shuyu Xue, Jiaquan Yao
The World Predictive Power Of U.S. Equity Market Skewness Risk, Jian Chen, Fuwei Jiang, Shuyu Xue, Jiaquan Yao
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This study investigates the cross-country impact of U.S. equity market skewness risk. We find that a large decrease in the U.S. market skewness significantly predicts higher future returns on international equity markets. The predictability remains significant after controlling for a set of U.S. and local forecasting variables. Furthermore, we find strong predictability in- an out-of-sample setting and the predictability delivers a large economic value. The U.S. market skewness also forecasts U.S. economic recessions and international market conditions, consistent with the international three-moment capital asset pricing model (three-moment CAPM) and the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM).
Volatility Timing Under Low-Volatility Strategy, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee
Volatility Timing Under Low-Volatility Strategy, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The authors devise a volatility timing strategy based on statistical tests on the slope of the volatility decile portfolio return profile. Superior performance is obtained, with a 30% increase in Sharpe ratio and an order of magnitude improvement on cumulated wealth. The profitability of the volatility timing strategy can be attributed to holding a diversified portfolio during bear markets, while holding a concentrated growth portfolio during bull markets.
Analysis Of Credit Enhancement Of Financing Guarantee Company, Tiewei Zhang
Analysis Of Credit Enhancement Of Financing Guarantee Company, Tiewei Zhang
Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)
In China, the financing problem of SMEs has been concerned for a long time, but it has not been effectively solved. At present, the development of financing guarantee companies (FGCs) providing credit enhancement services for SMEs is facing severe challenges. Essentially, financing guarantee is a special kind of creditor’s right (debt investor’s rights). The essence of creditor's right is the seller position of put options. Because the return-risk structure of creditor's right is seriously asymmetric, debt investors should follow the prudent and conservative operating principle. The "5Ws" principle or "5Cs" principle of bank loan business is the embodiment of this …
Forecasting Realized Volatility Using A Nonnegative Semiparametric Model, Anders Eriksson, Daniel P. A. Preve, Jun Yu
Forecasting Realized Volatility Using A Nonnegative Semiparametric Model, Anders Eriksson, Daniel P. A. Preve, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper introduces a parsimonious and yet flexible semiparametric model to forecastfinancial volatility. The new model extends a related linear nonnegative autoregressive modelpreviously used in the volatility literature by way of a power transformation. It is semiparametric inthe sense that the distributional and functional form of its error component is partially unspecified.The statistical properties of the model are discussed and a novel estimation method is proposed.Simulation studies validate the new method and suggest that it works reasonably well in finitesamples. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of the proposed model is evaluated against anumber of standard models, using data on S&P 500 …
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2019 August, Singapore Management University
Skbi Big 5 Survey 2019 August, Singapore Management University
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
On balance, our overall interpretation of the multiyear Big5 survey results implies the following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, China, US, Japan and Euro Area (i.e., India’s economy appears to be the least at-risk, while the Euro Area might be the most at-risk). Broadly, survey participants expect the risks to GDP growth to be tilted to the downside in 2019 and 2020 followed by a more balanced growth environment in 2021. But participants seem to lean toward a more balanced risk assessment on headline inflation from 2019 through 2021, with the exception of the Euro Area, where a modest …
The Fintech Revolution, Robert J. Kauffman
The Fintech Revolution, Robert J. Kauffman
MITB Thought Leadership Series
The traditional dominance of established big-hitters in financial services is at an end. The market for many types of financial transaction is being disrupted by small businesses, start-ups and entrepreneurs. They are quicker off the mark in both spotting gaps in the market and developing state-of-the-art systems to respond to customer needs.
The Information Content Of Sudden Insider Silence, Claire Yurong Hong, Frank Weikai Li
The Information Content Of Sudden Insider Silence, Claire Yurong Hong, Frank Weikai Li
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We present evidence of investors underreacting to the absence of events in financialmarkets. Routine-based insiders strategically choose to be silent when they possessprivate information not yet reflected in stock prices. Consistent with our hypothesis,insider silence following routine sell (buy) predict positive (negative) future return aswell as fundamentals. The return predictability of insider silence is stronger amongfirms with poor information environment and facing higher arbitrage costs, and alarge fraction of abnormal returns concentrates on future earnings announcements. Along-short strategy that exploits insiders’ strategic silence behavior generates abnormalreturns of 6% to 10% annually