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- Hedging (2)
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Articles 1 - 9 of 9
Full-Text Articles in Finance and Financial Management
Are Bond Returns Predictable With Real-Time Macro Data?, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Kunpeng Li, Guoshi Tong, Guofu Zhou
Are Bond Returns Predictable With Real-Time Macro Data?, Dashan Huang, Fuwei Jiang, Kunpeng Li, Guoshi Tong, Guofu Zhou
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We investigate the predictability of bond returns using real-time macro variables and consider the possibility of a nonlinear predictive relationship and the presence of weak factors. To address these issues, we propose a scaled sufficient forecasting (sSUFF) method and analyze its asymptotic properties. Using both the existing and the new method, we find empirically that real-time macro variables have significant forecasting power both in-sample and out-of-sample. Moreover, they generate sizable economic values, and their predictability is not spanned by the yield curve. We also observe that the forecasted bond returns are countercyclical, and the magnitude of predictability is stronger during …
Tail Risk Hedging: The Search For Cheap Options, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee
Tail Risk Hedging: The Search For Cheap Options, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The authors find that a simple heuristic of sorting liquid equity options by dollar price to construct a portfolio of cheap put options leads to a surprisingly robust hedge for tail risk – the superior performance holds even when compared against more advanced empirical strategies. Further investigation reveals the asymmetry in market correlation under different market conditions as the mechanism of this robust hedging performance. The cheap options selected by the heuristic comprises of stocks with diverse firm characteristics. The correlation spike accompanying tail risk events leads to the majority of these put options moving into-the-money (ITM), thus compensating the …
Who Profits From Trading Options?, Jianfeng Hu, Antonia Kirilova, Gilbert Seongkyu Park, Doojin. Ryu
Who Profits From Trading Options?, Jianfeng Hu, Antonia Kirilova, Gilbert Seongkyu Park, Doojin. Ryu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We use account-level transaction data to examine trading styles and profitability in a leading derivatives market. Approximately 66% of active retail investors predominantly hold simple, one-sided positions in only one class of options, whereas institutional investors are more likely to use complex strategies. Hypothesizing that the complexity of trading styles reflects investors' skills, we examine the effect of options trading styles on investment performance. We find that retail investors using simple strategies lose to the rest of the market. For both retail and institutional investors, selling volatility is the most successful strategy. We conclude that these style effects are persistent …
Is Carbon Risk Priced In The Cross Section Of Corporate Bond Returns?, Tinghua Duan, Frank Weikai Li, Quan Wen
Is Carbon Risk Priced In The Cross Section Of Corporate Bond Returns?, Tinghua Duan, Frank Weikai Li, Quan Wen
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This article examines the pricing of a firm’s carbon risk in the corporate bond market. Contrary to the “carbon risk premium” hypothesis, bonds of more carbon-intensive firms earn significantly lower returns. This effect cannot be explained by a comprehensive list of bond characteristics and exposure to known risk factors. Investigating sources of the low carbon alpha, we find the underperformance of bonds issued by carbon-intensive firms cannot be fully explained by divestment from institutional investors. Instead, our evidence is most consistent with investor underreaction to the predictability of carbon intensity for firm cash-flow news, creditworthiness, and environmental incidents.
Would Order-By-Order Auctions Be Competitive?, Thomas Ernst, Chester Spatt, Jian Sun
Would Order-By-Order Auctions Be Competitive?, Thomas Ernst, Chester Spatt, Jian Sun
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We model two different methods of executing segregated retail orders: broker's routing, whereby brokers allocate orders using market maker's overall performance, and order-by-order auctions, where market makers bid on individual orders, a recent SEC proposal. Order-by-order auctions improve market maker allocative efficiency, but face a winner's curse reducing retail investor welfare, particularly when liquidity is limited. Additional market participants competing for retail orders fail to improve total efficiency and investor welfare when entrants possess information superior to incumbent wholesalers. Existing Retail Liquidity Programs empirically suggest order-by-order auctions would attract few bidders in less liquid stocks and low-liquidity periods.
A Review On Derivative Hedging Using Reinforcement Learning, Peng Liu
A Review On Derivative Hedging Using Reinforcement Learning, Peng Liu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Hedging is a common trading activity to manage the risk of engaging in transactions that involve derivatives such as options. Perfect and timely hedging, however, is an impossible task in the real market that characterizes discrete-time transactions with costs. Recent years have witnessed reinforcement learning (RL) in formulating optimal hedging strategies. Specifically, different RL algorithms have been applied to learn the optimal offsetting position based on market conditions, offering an automatic risk management solution that proposes optimal hedging strategies while catering to both market dynamics and restrictions. In this article, the author provides a comprehensive review of the use of …
Peer Effects In Equity Research, Kenny Phua, Mandy Tham, Chi Shen Wei
Peer Effects In Equity Research, Kenny Phua, Mandy Tham, Chi Shen Wei
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We study the importance of peer effects among sell-side analysts who work at the same brokerage house, but cover different firms. By mapping the information network within each brokerage, we identify analysts who occupy central positions in their network. Central analysts incorporate more information from their coworkers and produce better research. Using shocks to network structures around brokerage mergers, we identify the influence of peer effects and the importance of industry expertise on analysts’ performance. A portfolio strategy that exploits the forecast revisions of central analysts earns up to 24% per annum.
Simultaneous Multilateral Search, Sergei Glebkin, Bart Zhou Yueshen, Ji Shen
Simultaneous Multilateral Search, Sergei Glebkin, Bart Zhou Yueshen, Ji Shen
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper studies simultaneous multilateral search (SMS) in over-the-counter markets: When searching, a customer simultaneously contacts several dealers and trades with the one offering the best quote. Higher search intensity (how often one can search) improves welfare, but higher search capacity (how many dealers one can contact) might be harmful. When the market is in distress, customers might inefficiently favor bilateral bargaining (BB) over SMS. Such a preference for BB speaks to the sluggish adoption of SMS trading, like request-for-quote protocols, in over-the-counter markets. Furthermore, a market-wide shift to SMS may not be socially optimal.
Presidential Economic Approval Rating And The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Zilin Chen, Zhi Da, Dashan Huang, Liyao Wang
Presidential Economic Approval Rating And The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Zilin Chen, Zhi Da, Dashan Huang, Liyao Wang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We construct a monthly presidential economic approval rating (PEAR) index from 1981 to 2019, by averaging ratings on the president’s handling of the economy across various national polls. In the cross-section, stocks with high betas to changes in the PEAR index significantly under-perform those with low betas by 1.00% per month in the future, on a risk-adjusted basis. The low PEAR beta premium persists up to one year, and is present in various sub-samples and even in other G7 countries. PEAR beta dynamically reveals a firm’s perceived alignment to the incumbent president’s economic policies and investors seem to misprice such …