Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Intraday Price Discovery In Emerging Equity Market: Analysis Of Set50 Index, Set 50 Index Futures And Thaidex Set50 (Tdex), Chiraphol New Chiyachantana, Julaluck Choochuay, Tanakorn Likitapiwat

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study employs Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), information share and conditional information share methods to investigate price discovery in SET50 Index (cash index), SET50 Index Futures (futures index) and ThaiDex SET50 (exchange traded fund). Our findings indicate that there exists a long run relationship among three markets and a multi-market trading of derivatives markets and its underlying asset helps improve price efficiency. With respect to the degree of price formation process, SET50 Index Futures contributes most in price discovery process, followed by SET50 Index and ThaiDex SET50.

How Do Institutional Investors Trade When Firms Are Buying Back Shares?, Sheng Huang, Zhe (Joe) Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study how institutional investors trade when firms buy back shares. We find that aggregate institutional ownership decline following share repurchase announcements. While some institutions sell shares passively to meet the firm demand for the market to clear, the overall institutional sell-off only accounts for 27% of shares bought back contemporaneously by firms. Many firms experience a net inflow of institutional investment. The decrease in institutional shareholding is greater in firms that experience weaker recent stock performance, display more information uncertainty, have higher institutional ownership, and conduct ill-timed/motivated repurchases that are not endorsed by institutions. And most of the sell-off …

Streaks In Earnings Surprises And The Cross-Section Of Stock Returns, Roger Loh, Mitch Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The gambler's fallacy (Rabin, 2002) predicts that trends bias investor expectations. Consistent with this prediction, we find that investors underreact to streaks of consecutive earnings surprises with the same sign. When the most recent earnings surprise extends a streak, post-earnings announcement drift is strong and significant. In contrast, the drift is negligible following thetermination of a streak. Indeed, streaks explain about half of the post-earnings announcement drift in our sample. Our results are robust to more general definitions of trends than streaks and a battery of control variables including the magnitude ofearnings surprises and their autocorrelation. Overall, post-earnings announcement drift …

How Does The U.S. Stock Market Affect The Stocks Of Chinese State-Owned Companies?, Yan Huang

Economics Honors Projects

This paper examines how the U.S. stock market affects the Chinese stock market, with a focus on Chinese state-owned companies, and compares the impacts on different industries and time periods. Results show that the U.S. stock market affects non-state-owned companies and state-owned companies with international business, but not state-owned companies without international business. The correlations between two markets are stronger in industries with lower percentages of state-owned companies. The impacts the U.S. stock market has on the Chinese stock market are increasing in time and in longer term.

F.A.C.E.S. (Faculty Academic Community Education Showcase): Professional Growth Experiences In A Career University, Paul J. Colbert, Ph.D.

MBA Faculty Conference Papers & Journal Articles

Institutes of higher education exist for the purpose of developing, fostering, nurturing, and stimulating the intellectual growth and development of students. The core values of a college education provide students conceptual and practical educational opportunities that focus on improving their skills and knowledge. These skills and knowledge translate into purposeful, real-life learning experiences. However, in the academic community, learning is not restricted to students. Faculty, too, must be supported and provided opportunities for personal and professional growth and development. Although professional development is not a novel concept in the education profession, schools often take up the gauntlet, but fall short …

A Utility Based Approach To Energy Hedging, Jim Hanly, John Cotter

Articles

A key issue in the estimation of energy hedges is the hedgers’ attitude towards risk which is encapsulated in the form of the hedgers’ utility function. However, the literature typically uses only one form of utility function such as the quadratic when estimating hedges. This paper addresses this issue by estimating and applying energy market based risk aversion to commonly applied utility functions including log, exponential and quadratic, and we incorporate these in our hedging frameworks. We find significant differences in the optimal hedge strategies based on the utility function chosen.

Hedge Funds And Analyst Conflict Of Interest, Sung Gon Chung, Melvyn Teo

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

Are sell-side analysts reluctant to go against the investment views of their hedge fund clients? We show that analysts tend to upgrade stocks recently bought and downgrade stocks recently sold by hedge funds. Relative to other buy and strong buy recommendations, similar recommendations on stocks predominantly held by hedge funds parlay into poorer three-month and six-month stock returns. Hedge funds concurrently offload their stock holdings when analysts issue flattering reports. In line with an agency based explanation, our results are more pronounced for important brokerage clients such as high dollar turnover hedge funds and hedge funds who are prime brokerage …

An Improved Test For Statistical Arbitrage, Robert Jarrow, Melvyn Teo, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitch Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We improve upon the power of the statistical arbitrage test in Hogan, Jarrow, Teo, and Warachka (2004). Our methodology also allows for the evaluation of return anomalies under weaker assumptions. We then compare strategies based on their convergence rates to arbitrage and identify strategies whose probability of a loss declines to zero most rapidly. These strategies are preferred by investors with finite horizons or limited capital. After controlling for market frictions and examining convergence rates to arbitrage, we find that momentum and value strategies offer the most desirable trading opportunities.

Hedging Effectiveness Under Conditions Of Asymmetry, Jim Hanly, John Cotter

Articles

We examine whether hedging effectiveness is affected by asymmetry in the return distribution by applying tail specific metrics, for example, Value at Risk, to compare the hedging effectiveness of short and long hedgers. Comparisons are applied to a number of hedging strategies including OLS, and both symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models. We apply our analysis to a dataset consisting of S&P500 index cash and futures containing symmetric and asymmetric return distributions chosen ex-post. Our findings show that asymmetry reduces out-of-sample hedging performance and that significant differences occur in hedging performance between short and long hedgers.

Pricing Mortality Securities With Correlated Mortality Indexes, Yijia Lin, Sheen Liu, Jifeng Yu

Department of Management: Faculty Publications

This article proposes a stochastic model, which captures mortality correlations across countries and common mortality shocks, for analyzing catastrophe mortality contingent claims. To estimate our model, we apply particle filtering, a general technique that has wide applications in non-Gaussian and multivariate jump-diffusion models and models with nonanalytic observation equations. In addition, we illustrate how to price mortality securities with normalized multivariate exponential titling based on the estimated mortality correlations and jump parameters. Our results show the significance of modeling mortality correlations and transient jumps in mortality security pricing.

Frog In The Pan: Continuous Information And Momentum, Zhi Da, G. Gurun, Mitchell Craig Warachka

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We develop and test a frog-in-the-pan hypothesis that predicts investors are less attentive to information arriving continuously in small amounts than to information with the same cumulative stock price implications arriving in large amounts at discrete timepoints. Intuitively, we hypothesize that a series of gradual frequent changes attracts less attention than infrequent dramatic changes. Consistent with our frog-in-the-pan hypothesis, we find strong evidence that continuous information induces stronger and more persistent return continuation. Over a six-month holding period, momentum decreases monotonically from 8.86% for stocks with continuous information during their formation period to 2.91% for stocks with discrete information. Higher …

Transaction Consistency And The New Finance In Bankruptcy, David A. Skeel Jr., Thomas Jackson

All Faculty Scholarship

Prior to the enactment of the Dodd-Frank Act last summer, derivatives and repurchase agreements (“repos”) were largely unregulated outside of bankruptcy, and also were exempted from core bankruptcy provisions such as the automatic stay, which prevents creditors from seizing collateral or attempting to collect what they are owed. The Dodd-Frank Act now extensively regulates derivatives outside of bankruptcy, but it left their special treatment in bankruptcy completely untouched.

There is a gap in the debate over this special treatment. To date, neither scholars nor the derivatives industry have fully analyzed the key counterfactual: what would happen if derivatives and repos …