Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Historical Perspectives In Volatility Forecasting Methods With Machine Learning, Zhiang Qiu, Clemens Kownatzki, Fabien Scalzo, Eun Sang Cha

Seaver College Research And Scholarly Achievement Symposium

Volatility forecasting in the financial market plays a pivotal role across a spectrum of disciplines, such as risk management, option pricing, and market making. However, volatility forecasting is challenging because volatility can only be estimated, and different factors influence volatility, ranging from macroeconomic indicators to investor sentiments. While recent works suggest advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence for volatility forecasting, a comprehensive benchmark of current statistical and learning-based methods for such purposes is lacking. Thus, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive survey of the historical evolution of volatility forecasting with a comparative benchmark of key landmark models. We …

The Rocket: Analyzing Rtp (Return To Player), Payoff Distribution And Player Behavior In Crash Games, Mikhail M. Sher, Robert Haywood Scott Iii, Jonathan A. Daigle

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Abstract

Rocket is a crash game developed by DraftKings, an American publicly traded online casino, sports betting and fantasy sports company. DraftKings Rocket is a game played with a rising rocket. Players must exit the rocket at any point before the rocket crashes. In that case they receive the payoff in accordance to the multiplier of their exit point. If the rocket crashes before the player bails, player’s payoff is 0 (and they lose their bet).

The game boasts an unprecedented 97% RTP (Return to Player). For comparison, Atlantic City casino slots typically have a 91-92% RTP, while Vegas casino …

The Correlation Of Winning And Money-Baseball, Jacob Bowman

Scholars Day Conference

This presentation over my thesis examines the feasibility of using statistics to predict win values for major league baseball. Definite correlations were discovered between a Major League organization’s finances and on-field performance. Stated correlations are used to generate a predictive model that will predict on-field outcomes. Using regression analysis, such a model is construed, and successfully predicted win ratios for Major League Baseball organizations using only available past financial data.

Session 5: Equipment Finance Credit Risk Modeling - A Case Study In Creative Model Development & Nimble Data Engineering, Edward Krueger, Landon Thompson, Josh Moore

SDSU Data Science Symposium

This presentation will focus first on providing an overview of Channel and the Risk Analytics team that performed this case study. Given that context, we’ll then dive into our approach for building the modeling development data set, techniques and tools used to develop and implement the model into a production environment, and some of the challenges faced upon launch. Then, the presentation will pivot to the data engineering pipeline. During this portion, we will explore the application process and what happens to the data we collect. This will include how we extract & store the data along with how it …

Cybersecurity In Fintech Companies, Efstratios Zouros

Cybersecurity Undergraduate Research Showcase

Have you recently accessed your bank account online? Have you accessed any financial instrument through your computer or your mobile device? If you are reading this, chances are you have. Every time you utilize those services, you ultimately put your trust in the financial institutions that offer them. You trust that they can securely keep your private information, while also keeping your savings safe. Ultimately, there is a certain dependability and trust in financial institutions that have been present on earth before most of us.

Understanding The Effectivity And Increased Reliance Of Credit Risk Machine Learning Models In Banking, Grishma Baruah

Cybersecurity Undergraduate Research Showcase

Credit risk analysis and making accurate investment and lending decisions has been a challenge for the financial industry for many years, as can be seen with the 2008 financial crisis. However, with the rise of machine learning models and predictive analytics, there has been a shift to increased reliance on technology for determining credit risk. This transition to machine learning comes with both advantages, such as potentially eliminating human error and assumptions from lending decisions, and disadvantages, such as time constraints, data usage inabilities, and lack of understanding nuances in machine learning models. In this paper, I look at four …

Contingency Planning Amidst A Pandemic, Natalie C. Belford

KSU Proceedings on Cybersecurity Education, Research and Practice

Proper prior planning prevents pitifully poor performance: The purpose of this research is to address mitigation approaches - disaster recovery, contingency planning, and continuity planning - and their benefits as they relate to university operations during a worldwide pandemic predicated by the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19). The most relevant approach pertaining to the University’s needs and its response to the Coronavirus pandemic will be determined and evaluated in detail.

Kelly Fraction Estimation For Multiple Correlated Bets, William Chin

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

It is well-known that expected portfolio growth is maximized by maximizing

expected logarithmic utility. This investment criterion is known as Kelly betting.

It has many optimality properties but is considered to be risky. Blackjack

teams and other advantage gamblers practice a fraction of the Kelly optimal to

decrease risk. Some hedge fund managers are thought to practice according to

Kelly principles. We use a continuous multivariate Geometric Brownian motion

model and present an interval estimate for the historical fraction for a portfolio

of correlated bets, possibly including a risk-free asset. Historical data comes

from a range of sources and the …

Supply Chain Sustainability: Understanding The Financial Impact, Matthew J. Guinn

EURēCA: Exhibition of Undergraduate Research and Creative Achievement

The purpose of this study is to determine if there is a differential impact on the financial performance of a company between environmental and social events.

This study uses a randomization of publicly traded companies within specific, pre-determined SIC codes, which is a collection of 66 companies, split between manufacturing and retail, to get the most accurate representation.

This study utilizes multiple regression models via STATA to analyze data compiled from the Wharton Research Database Services (WRDS) utilizing the MSCI ESG KLD, and Bloomberg, to analyze the percent increase in stock price which is the overarching models independent variable. Then, …

Distributed Evolution Of Spiking Neuron Models On Apache Mahout For Time Series Analysis, Andrew Palumbo

Annual Symposium on Biomathematics and Ecology Education and Research

No abstract provided.

Optimal Strategy For Gambling Pools, Aaron C. Brown

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

In gambling pools, entrants submit predictions and the prizes are awarded to the prediction or predictions closest to actual outcomes. Some well-known examples are football pools (both the global and American game versions), toto, NCAA March Madness bracket pools and horse racing tournaments. For small pools with complete information about outcome probabilities, exact game theory optimal solutions are straightforward to compute. If there is also complete information about the number and strategy of other players, optimal exploitive strategies are even easier to derive. These problems have been treated in the literature.

This paper argues that the complete information approaches are …

Self-Correcting Kelly Strategies For Skeptical Traders, Aaron C. Brown

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The Kelly criterion gives the appropriate bet size in idealized situations with known parameters. In financial trading situations parameters are generally unknown and the mathematical assumptions underlying the Kelly proof are not met precisely. Moreover a risk manager typically must cooperate with a trader who may be skeptical about both the Kelly criterion specifically and the concept of mathematical optimization of bet size in general.

This presentation tackles the problem of designing a Kelly-based system for setting trade risk management parameters that is both self-correcting (the system delivers good results even if initial parameter are misestimated or parameters change) and …

Adventures In Library Salary Surveys, Scott L. Schaffer

UVM Libraries Conference Day

Salary surveys are an important tool for the library community and the administrators and boards responsible for the oversight of libraries. However, such assessments must be constructed and analyzed with great care. The Vermont Library Association Personnel Committee has conducted three salary surveys over the past several years, one focusing on academic libraries and two on public libraries. Significant issues have included confidentiality, participation rate, definitions, length and difficulty of questions, collection of data, and representativeness. Suggestions and lessons learned will be shared.

Vertebrate Damage Management: The Future Of An Evolving Profession, Robert H. Giles Jr.

Wildlife Damage Management Conference

The author argues that an objective of a new group of people taking a systems approach to large wild animal problems should be to manage damage as a cost-reducing role within a total, profitable, long-term system, not necessarily to control the "pest." The needs are for well-grounded financial analyses both for customers, the public, the resources, and the well-being of the profession. A point of view is advanced for the need for evolving pest-related operations into a new, unique profession that is involved in a profound way as an element of a cost-effective total land and human resource production system.