Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

The Rocket: Analyzing Rtp (Return To Player), Payoff Distribution And Player Behavior In Crash Games, Mikhail M. Sher, Robert Haywood Scott Iii, Jonathan A. Daigle

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

Abstract

Rocket is a crash game developed by DraftKings, an American publicly traded online casino, sports betting and fantasy sports company. DraftKings Rocket is a game played with a rising rocket. Players must exit the rocket at any point before the rocket crashes. In that case they receive the payoff in accordance to the multiplier of their exit point. If the rocket crashes before the player bails, player’s payoff is 0 (and they lose their bet).

The game boasts an unprecedented 97% RTP (Return to Player). For comparison, Atlantic City casino slots typically have a 91-92% RTP, while Vegas casino …

The Equifax Hack Revisited And Repurposed, Hal Berghel

Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction Faculty Research

Reports on the recent indictments against Chinese hackers regarding Equifax.

Kelly Fraction Estimation For Multiple Correlated Bets, William Chin

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

It is well-known that expected portfolio growth is maximized by maximizing

expected logarithmic utility. This investment criterion is known as Kelly betting.

It has many optimality properties but is considered to be risky. Blackjack

teams and other advantage gamblers practice a fraction of the Kelly optimal to

decrease risk. Some hedge fund managers are thought to practice according to

Kelly principles. We use a continuous multivariate Geometric Brownian motion

model and present an interval estimate for the historical fraction for a portfolio

of correlated bets, possibly including a risk-free asset. Historical data comes

from a range of sources and the …

Numerical Methods For Option Pricing Under The Two-Factor Models, Jiacheng Cai

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Pricing options under multi-factor models are challenging and important problems for financial applications. In particular, the closed form solutions are not available for the American options and some European options, and the correlations between factors increase the complexity and difficulty for the formulations and implements of the numerical methods.

In this dissertation, we first introduce a general transformation to decouple correlated stochastic processes governed by a system of stochastic differential equations. Then we apply the transformation to the popular two-factor models: the two-asset model, the stochastic volatility model, and the stochastic interest rate models. Based on our new formulations, we …

Optimal Strategy For Gambling Pools, Aaron C. Brown

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

In gambling pools, entrants submit predictions and the prizes are awarded to the prediction or predictions closest to actual outcomes. Some well-known examples are football pools (both the global and American game versions), toto, NCAA March Madness bracket pools and horse racing tournaments. For small pools with complete information about outcome probabilities, exact game theory optimal solutions are straightforward to compute. If there is also complete information about the number and strategy of other players, optimal exploitive strategies are even easier to derive. These problems have been treated in the literature.

This paper argues that the complete information approaches are …

Self-Correcting Kelly Strategies For Skeptical Traders, Aaron C. Brown

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

The Kelly criterion gives the appropriate bet size in idealized situations with known parameters. In financial trading situations parameters are generally unknown and the mathematical assumptions underlying the Kelly proof are not met precisely. Moreover a risk manager typically must cooperate with a trader who may be skeptical about both the Kelly criterion specifically and the concept of mathematical optimization of bet size in general.

This presentation tackles the problem of designing a Kelly-based system for setting trade risk management parameters that is both self-correcting (the system delivers good results even if initial parameter are misestimated or parameters change) and …

Empirical Studies On Interest Rate Derivatives, Xudong Sun

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Interest rate models are the building blocks of financial market and the interest rate derivatives market is the largest derivatives market in the world. In this dissertation, we shall focus on numerical pricing of interest rate derivatives, estimating model parameters by Kalman filter, and studying various models empirically. We shall propose a front-fixing finite element method to price the American put option under the quadratic term structure framework and compare it with a trinomial tree method and common finite element method. Numerical test results show the superiority of our front-fixing finite element method in the aspects of computing the option …

Lattice Methods For The Valuation Of Options With Regime Switching, Atul Sancheti

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

In this thesis, we have developed two numerical methods for evaluating option prices under the regime switching model of stock price processes: the Finite Difference lattice method and the Monte Carlo lattice method.

The Finite Difference lattice method is based on the explicit finite difference scheme for parabolic problems. The Monte Carlo lattice method is based on the simulation of the Markov chain. The advantage of these methods is their flexibility to compute the option prices for any given stock price at any given time. Numerical examples are presented to examine these methods. It has been shown that the proposed …

Analysis Of Bank Failure And Size Of Assets, Guancun Zhong

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

The financial health of the banking industry is an important prerequisite for economic stability and growth. Bank failures in the United States have run in cycles largely associated with the collapse of economic bubbles. The number of bank failures has increased dramatically over the last thirty years (Halling and Hayden, 2007). In this thesis, we try to address the following two questions: 1) What is the relationship, if any, between a bank's asset size and its likelihood of failures? 2) How can we use statistical tools to predict the numbers of bank failures in the future? Various modeling techniques are …

Development Of A Sustainable Water Resource Financing Mathematical Model For Donors And End-Users, Sahar Zavareh

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Rural villages and underdeveloped communities represent the largest group challenged by poor water supply and sanitation with inequalities in resources to adequately implement potential solutions and even more with their high risk level of financing, funding is particularly challenging for water projects. Innovative financing alone will not eliminate the burdens of rural villages and underdeveloped communities. The purpose of this thesis is to address the lack of sustainable water financing of water projects in rural areas using a novel framework of a mathematical model based on "system dynamics" using optimal feedback control theory to maximize the performance of a water …

Arima Models For Bank Failures: Prediction And Comparison, Fangjin Cui

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

The number of bank failures has increased dramatically over the last twenty-two years. A common notion in economics is that some banks can become "too big to fail." Is this still a true statement? What is the relationship, if any, between bank sizes and bank failures? In this thesis, the proposed modeling techniques are applied to real bank failure data from the FDIC. In particular, quarterly data from 1989:Q1 to 2010:Q4 are used in the data analysis, which includes three major parts: 1) pairwise bank failure rate comparisons using the conditional test (Przyborowski and Wilenski, 1940); 2) development of the …

Sustainability’S Correlation To Profit, Cheryl Annissa Drummond

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Sustainability and its correlation to profits in hospitality institutions is the subject of this paper. The lack of knowledge about sustainability and the benefits of sustainable practices are discussed. The evaluation of a GreenSeal (2010) Bronze certification G46-Restaurant audit is also examined. Research includes the review of industry experts’ findings on the subject and the social costs and benefits are evaluated based on the goal of economic, ecological, and social sustainability.

Converting Low-Level Mixed Waste Into Transuranic Waste For Geologic Disposal At Wipp: A Cost Analysis, Helen R. Neill, Robert H. Neill

Public Policy and Leadership Faculty Publications

The Department of Energy (DOE) has approximately 43,000 cubic meters of mixed-low-level waste (MLLW) with alpha emitting concentrations of 10 to 100 nanocuries per gram (nCi/g) generated from the nations defense programs requiring radioactive waste disposal [1]. DOE has decided to commingle MLLW containers with transuranic (TRU) waste containers in larger containers such that the average concentration in the larger container would qualify as TRU waste for deep geologic disposal at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Since Congress has exempted the WIPP mixed TRU waste from the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) [2] requirement to treat the waste …

Perspectives On Radioactive Waste Disposal: A Consideration Of Economic Efficiency And Intergenerational Equity, Helen R. Neill, Robert H. Neill

Public Policy and Leadership Faculty Publications

There are both internal and external pressures on the U.S. Department of Energy to reduce the estimated costs of isolating radioactive waste, $19 billion for transuranic waste at Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) and $57 billion for high level waste at Yucca Mountain. The question arises whether economic analyses would add to the decision-making process to reduce costs yet maintain the same level of radiological protection. This paper examines the advantages and disadvantages of using cost-benefit analysis (CBA), a tool used to measure economic efficiency as an input for these decisions. Using a comparative research approach, we find that CBA …