Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Learning From Manipulable Signals, Mehmet Ekmekci, Leandrro Gorno, Lucas Maestri, Jian Sun, Dong Wei

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study a dynamic stopping game between a principal and an agent. The agent is privately informed about his type. The principal learns about the agent’s type from a noisy performance measure, which can be manipulated by the agent via a costly and hidden action. We fully characterize the unique Markov equilibrium of this game. We find that terminations/ market crashes are often preceded by a spike in (expected) performance. Our model also predicts that, due to endogenous signal manipulation, too much transparency can inhibit learning. As the players get arbitrarily patient, the principal elicits no useful information from the …

On The Market For "Lemons": When Low Quality Does Not Drive High Quality Out Of The Market, Konstantinos Giannakas, Murray E. Fulton

Cornhusker Economics

In a research article published in Nature's Humanities and Social Sciences Communications (available at https://www.nature.com/articles/s4l 599-020-00658-w) we identify the conditions under which the introduction of a low -quality product does not drive its high-quality counterpart out of the market but, instead, ends-up coexisting with it. Using a theoretical framework of heterogeneous consumers and producers in the context of a market for quality- ( or vertically-) differentiated products supplied by producers differing in their production efficiency, we show that the equilibrium quality configuration in a market depends on both the unobservability of product quality by consumers and the relative costs …

The Alphabet Soup In Reporting And Measuring Esg, Hao Liang, Kam Chee Chan

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Harmonising frameworks with the Impact-Weighted Accounts Framework.

Rural Microfinance And Business Ownership Outcomes A Case Of Tanzania Educational And Micro Business Opportunity (Tembo) Loan And Non-Loan Recipients In Longido District, Tanzania, Owen Conlin

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

The study takes place in a rural area of Tanzania with gender barriers that are extremely difficult to overcome on a cultural level. This research examines outcomes for women in Longido District, Tanzania along the lines of MFI participation, education levels, financial variables, and empowerment variables. This study intends to elaborate this theory by examining the role that education plays in the success of Microfinance Institutions (MFI’s). It was found that MFI participation is correlated with increased financial and overall independence. Higher levels of education are found to be correlated with increased income, financial independence, personal empowerment, and overall independence. …

International Asset Pricing With Strategic Business Groups, Massimo Massa, Hong Zhang, Hong Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Firms in global markets often belong to business groups. We argue that this feature can have a profound influence on international asset pricing. In bad times, business groups may strategically reallocate risk across affiliated firms to protect core “central firms.” This strategic behavior induces co-movement among central firms, creating a new intertemporal risk factor. Based on a novel data set of worldwide ownership for 2002–2012, we find that central firms are better protected in bad times and that they earn relatively lower expected returns. Moreover, a centrality factor augments traditional models in explaining the cross section of international stock returns.

Customer Concentration And Corporate Carbon Emissions, Saiying Deng, Tinghua Duan, Frank Weikai Li, Xiaoling Pu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper examines whether economic links with major corporate customers curb corporate carbon emissions. We show that supplier firms with a concentrated customer base have significantly lower carbon emissions. The baseline results are robust to alternative measures of carbon emissions and customer concentration, and various approaches that mitigate endogeneity concerns due to omitted variables and reverse causality. Moreover, the curbing effect of customer concentration on supplier carbon emissions is more pronounced in firms facing lower customer switching costs, with less (more) supplier (customer) bargaining power, fewer redeployable assets, operating in more carbon-intensive industries, and after the Paris Agreement of 2015. …

The Cryptocurrency Participation Puzzle, Ran Duchin, David H. Solomon, Jun Tu, Xi Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We show that ongoing zero portfolio weights in cryptocurrency are surprisingly difficult to generate in a standard Bayesian portfolio theory framework. With ten years of prior data, equity market investors would need very pessimistic priors on mean returns to justify never having bought cryptocurrency: -10.6% per month for Bitcoin, and -19.6% per month for a diversified portfolio of cryptocurrencies. Moreover, most priors that involve never purchasing cryptocurrency imply that investors should short cryptocurrency. Optimal absolute weights are generally small but non-trivial (1-5%), frequently positive, and fairly smooth despite returns being volatile. Under a wide range of priors, the certainty equivalent …

Inflation Expectations Can Be A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy, Aurobindo Ghosh, Khyati Chauhan, Muskan Bagrodia

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In a commentary, SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) Aurobindo Ghosh, SMU postgraduate student and Research Assistant for the SInDEx Project Muskan Bagrodia and International Monetary Fund Economic Research Assistant Khyati Chauhan weighed in on why inflation expectations matter as much as economic data. They discussed how inflation expectations can be a self-fulfilling prophecy, and shared the key takeaways of the quarterly DBS-Sim Kee Boon Institute’s Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (DBS-SKBI SInDEx) survey. They concluded that effective communication on inflation control measures, in addition to credible policy decisions, will help consumers feel assured and refrain from basing purchasing decisions …

Chinese-Backed Fintech Lending Boom: How Did Indonesia Respond?, Angela Tritto, Yujia He, Victoria Amanda Junaedi

Diplomacy and International Commerce Reports

Peer-to-peer (P2P) online lending has the potential to boost innovation and financial inclusion in emerging markets, yet it can also incur investment and borrower-related risks, such as privacy breaches.

Driven by regulation control in China, Chinese investments flocked to Indonesia, causing a rapid expansion of online lending platforms.

Similar to what happened in China prior to the regulatory crackdown, the P2P lending boom in Indonesia saw a rise in unethical and illegal business practices. The government responded by creating new regulations and institutions to mitigate risks without stifling the potential for financial inclusion.

A proactive approach towards monitoring and regulating …

What, Why And How Financial Development Matters: Evidence Of Asean-5, Asia-5 And Oecd-7 Economies, Swee Liang Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper analyzed the association between bank and capital markets financial development with income per capita in three regions; ASEAN-5 economies (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia), Asia-5 (Japan, China, Hong Kong SAR, South Korea, and India), and OECD-7 (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, UK, and US) from 2000 to 2017 using panel data regressions. A key lesson ASEAN-5 can learn from Asia-5 and OECD-7 experience is that bank size does matter despite digital disruptions to their banking system; yet large financial structure that favors banks is negatively associated with Asia-5, and importantly, efficient banking system (not bank size alone) is …

Oil Price Shocks And Stock Market Anomalies, Zhaobo Zhu, Licheng Sun, Jun Tu, Qiang Ji

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper provides a novel perspective to the nexus of oil prices and stock markets by examining the impact of oil price shocks on stock market anomalies. After decomposing oil price shocks into three types , we find that aggregate demand shocks have the strongest influence on stock market anomalies. In contrast, oil supply shocks and oil-specific demand shocks have little impact. Similar results are also found in the industry analysis. Interestingly, the link between aggregate demand shocks and anomalies is the strongest among firms with either small size or high idiosyncratic risks. The documented effects are robust after controlling …

Why Do U.S. Firms Invest Less Over Time?, Fangjian Fu, Sheng Huang, Rong Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Capital expenditures of U.S. public firms, relative to total assets, decrease by more than half from 1980 to 2020. The decline is pervasive across industries and firms of different characteristics and cannot be explained by the usual determinants of investment and many other seemingly plausible reasons. The decline is consistent with the transformation in production technology — firms rely more on intangible capital and less on fixed assets in production. Industry-level analyses yield supporting evidence. We observe similar declining trend in capital expenditure in other developed countries but not in most emerging markets.

Eradicating Malaria: Innovation Diffusion In The Face Of Grand Challenges, Han Jiang, Hao Liang, Dongning Yang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

What is the role of organizational innovation—beyond technological innovation—in an era of grand challenges concerning health, poverty, and economic development around the world? How is organizational innovation developed and diffused to influence resource allocation in the field? We conduct a qualitative case study by analyzing a Chinese pharmaceutical firm’s efforts to combat malaria in Africa over 10 years. Through documentation and extensive interviews, we study the role of innovation diffusion and resource allocation to address grand challenges in emerging markets with significant institutional voids. Our conceptual model delineates the different stages of innovation diffusion to show how organizations can draw …

Internal Capital Markets And Predictability In Complex Ownership Firms, Ran Chang, Angelica Gonzalez, Sergei Sarkissian, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Using global cross-firm ownership data, we find that both stock returns and cash-flow news of ownership-linked firms predict focal firm's returns for all types of ownership structures: subsidiary-parent, parent-subsidiary, subsidiary-subsidiary, and parent-parent. This effect, observed only after the establishment of cross-firm ownership, is not subsumed by focal firm or industry momentum, or alternative inter-firm relations, including customer-supplier links and shared analyst coverage. Our findings are explained by mispricing due to internal capital markets - a mechanism unique to complex ownership firms. Higher internal capital market activity among ownership-linked firms also induces larger investments and lower external financing of the focal …

Young Adults And Money: The Covid-19 Pandemic, Michael Mariano

Honors Projects in Finance

This study looks to explore the relationship between the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy and young investors. More specifically, this research looks to answer the question: how have young adults, ages 18-25, responded to the economic distress caused by the COVID-19 pandemic with their investing decisions? Through analyzing a sample of young adults, ages 18-25, this study will develop a deeper and broader perspective on the unique impact that the COVID-19 pandemic has had on the investing decisions of young adults. Using a mix of literary studies on similar historical events and a sample study of young …

Inflation And Ukraine War Make It Challenging For Our Beloved Value Stores To Survive, Aurobindo Ghosh, Taimur Baig

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In a joint commentary, SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) and Principal Investigator of DBS-SKBI Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations Project Aurobindo Ghosh and Chief Economist and Managing Director at DBS Bank Dr Taimur Baig discussed how global inflationary pressures and rising commodity prices due to war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia are culminating into a perfect storm and making it challenging for value stores to survive. They also gave advice on what value stores can do to survive this perfect storm.

A Black-Scholes User's Guide To The Bachelier Model, Jaehyuk Choi, Minsuk Kwak, Chyng Wen Tee, Yumeng Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

To cope with the negative oil futures price caused by the COVID-19 recession, global commodity futures exchanges switched the option model from Black-Scholes to Bachelier in April 2020. This study reviews the literature on Bachelier's pioneering option pricing model and summarizes the practical results on volatility conversion, risk management, stochastic volatility, and barrier options pricing to facilitate the model transition. In particular, using the displaced Black-Scholes model as a model family with the Black-Scholes and Bachelier models as special cases, we not only connect the two models but also present a continuous spectrum of model choices.

The Impact Of Female Leadership On Lgbtq-Supportive Policies, Samantha Bove

Honors Projects in Finance

In the past two decades, gender inequality in c-suites has received a large amount of attention. Thus, the number of women in top management roles has increased substantially. However, the corporate sector has also neglected other marginalized groups, specifically, members of the LGBTQ community. These individuals are important employees and previous literature has established the benefits, both financial and otherwise, that the presence of LGBTQ supportive policies have on American corporations. In this paper, I examine if the presence of women CEOs influences the LGBTQ policies that are implemented in that firm. This will be analyzed using an OLS regression …

Footballer Valuations: Valuing World-Class Football Players Against Transfer Fees, Louis Diblasi

Honors Projects in Economics

This paper aims to create a model to value European football players. It will do so by comparing a player's transfer fee and then measuring their value based on performances in the season after the transfer has occurred. The model will be applied to Europe's top five leagues: the English Premier League, Serie A, La Liga, Ligue 1, and the German Bundesliga. This study takes variables from multiple past studies to be used in the model, and adds a valuation for goalkeepers, which has never been done before. The goal of this study is to measure the variables that contribute …

Investor Sentiment And Paradigm Shifts In Equity Premium Forecasting, Liya Chu, Kai Li, Tony Xue-Zhong He, Jun Tu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This study investigates the impact of investor sentiment on excess equity return forecasting. A high (low) investor sentiment may weaken the connection between fundamental economic (behavioral-based non-fundamental) predictors and market returns. We find that although fundamental variables can be strong predictors when sentiment is low, they tend to lose their predictive power when investor sentiment is high. Non-fundamental predictors perform well during high-sentiment periods while their predictive ability deteriorates when investor sentiment is low. These paradigm shifts in equity return forecasting provide a key to understanding and resolving the lack of predictive power for both fundamental and non-fundamental variables debated …

Why Commonality Persists?, Chyng Wen Tee, Raja Velu, Zhaoque Zhou

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We show that order flows do not exhibit predictive power on asset returns, and their relationships have been static over time. We use a reduced-rank regression formulation to model both returns and the order flows as endogenous variables, and use investors' sentiment and attention as exogenous factors. We provide empiricalevidence to demonstrate that cross-sectional commonality in attention (sentiment) is linearly (nonlinearly) associated with both returns and order flows at the intraday level, while the sentiment and attentionmeasures themselves exhibit a nonlinear mutual relationship, thus revealing the multi-dimensional aspect of the commonality relationship.

Do Underwriters Short-Change Corporations Issuing Bonds?, Choo Yong, Jeremy Goh, Lisa Yang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We confirm prior evidence that bonds on average are offered at prices below their immediate post-offer secondary market prices. However, in cases where banks lead-manage their own bond offerings the underpricing is significantly less as compared to other non-self-marketed offerings. These findings are robust across various matched samples and selection models. Our results suggest that the bond offering process is characterized by substantive agency conflicts between shareholders of corporations (issuers) and underwriters.

How Do Firms Respond To Reduced Private Equity Buyout Activity?, Yi-Hsin Lo

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper presents new evidence on the economic role of private equity buyouts by exploiting the staggered adoption of the constructive fraud provision by U.S. state courts. The law unintentionally shifts the credit default risk borne by existing unsecured creditors of the buyout target to the selling shareholders and lenders in the form of ex-post litigation risk, thereby discouraging buyout activity. Using a difference-in-differences framework, I find that firms raise less capital, reduce payouts and investments, and form alliances with employees. Firms also avoid positive NPV projects that carry too much risk. These findings are consistent with managers enjoying a …

Financial Intermediaries And Contagion In Market Efficiency: The Case Of Etfs, Claire Yurong Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Avanidhar Subrahmanyam

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Capital constraints of financial intermediaries can affect liquidity provision. We investigate whether these constraints spillover and consequently cause contagion in the degree of market efficiency across assets managed by a common intermediary. Specifically, we provide evidence of strong comovement in pricing gaps between ETFs and their constituents for ETFs served by the same lead market maker (LMM). The effects are stronger for ETFs that are more illiquid and volatile, when the underlying constituents of the ETFs are more costly to arbitrage, and for LMMs with more constrained capital. Using extreme disruptions in debt markets during COVID-19 as an experiment, we …

Only 7.8% Of Eligible Vehicles In Utah Enroll In The Utah Road Usage Charge (Ruc) Program, Tyson Bomsta, Joe Davis

Research on Capitol Hill

Senior Tyson and sophomore Joe are Center for Growth Opportunity Research Fellows studying economics and finance at USU. The duo focused their research on their native Utah. The increase in fuel-efficient and electric cars has begun to impact Utah’s ability to fund roadwork, and this is likely to become a more serious problem as time goes on. Taxing gas is no longer a viable way to raise the funds necessary, and Joe and Tyson are looking at ways to reform our tax structure to keep Utahns on the road. Both students agree that research is the best way to learn. …

Sandwiched Between A Rock And A Hard Place?, Thomas Lam, David Fernandez

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The policy gap between US and China is likely to be widening further, potentially raising and unevenly distributing the risks of negative spillovers for Asia and the rest of the world.

Investing In Low-Trust Countries: On The Role Of Social Trust In The Global Mutual Fund Industry, Massimo Massa, Chengwei Wang, Hong Zhang, Jian Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We hypothesize that social trust, in mitigating contracting incompleteness, may have an important effect on the activeness and effectiveness of delegated portfolio management. Using a complete sample of worldwide open-end mutual funds, we find that trust is positively associated with the activeness of funds and that trust-related active share delivers superior performance (e.g., approximately 2% per year for cross-border investments). Moreover, "trust in the market" and "trust in managers" play important yet different roles for different types of cross-border delegated portfolio management. Our results suggest that trust acts as a fundamental building block for delegated portfolio management.

Short Selling Etfs, Frank Weikai Li, Qifei Zhu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We provide novel evidence that arbitrageurs use exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as an avenue to circumvent short-sale constraints at the stock level. Using a large sample of U.S. equity ETF holdings, we document that shorting activity on ETFs rises with the difficulty of shorting underlying stocks. Stocks heavily shorted via their holding ETFs underperform those that are lightly shorted. The return predictability of ETF shorting is distinct from stock-level shorting measures and is concentrated among stocks that face severe arbitrage constraints. These findings suggest that ETFs allow arbitrageurs to target overpriced stocks that are otherwise difficult to short.

Third Party Moral Hazard And The Problem Of Insurance Externalities, Gideon Parchomovsky, Peter Siegelman

All Faculty Scholarship

Insurance can lead to loss or claim-creation not just by insureds themselves, but also by uninsured third parties. These externalities—which we term “third party moral hazard”—arise because insurance creates opportunities both to extract rents and to recover for otherwise unrecoverable losses. Using examples from health, automobile, kidnap, and liability insurance, we demonstrate that the phenomenon is widespread and important, and that the downsides of insurance are greater than previously believed. We explain the economic, social and psychological reasons for this phenomenon, and propose policy responses. Contract-based methods that are traditionally used to control first-party moral hazard can be welfare-reducing in …

Climate Change And Sustainability In Asean Countries, David K. Ding, Sarah E. Beh

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The ASEAN region is one of the most susceptible regions to climate change, with three of its countries—Myanmar, the Philippines, and Thailand—among those that have suffered the greatest fatalities and economic losses because of climate-related disasters. This paper reveals that the ASEAN’s environmental performance is sorely lagging other regions despite evidence of its cohesive and comprehensive efforts to mitigate emissions and build up adaptive capacity to climate-related disasters. Within the ASEAN, there exist gaps in environmental performance between each country. This suggests that increased cooperation between individual ASEAN countries is pertinent for the region to collectively combat climate change. In …