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Articles 1 - 24 of 24
Full-Text Articles in Finance and Financial Management
Predicting Market Trends: Effects Of Gdp And Pmi On Changes In Stock Closing Prices, Charley Renna
Predicting Market Trends: Effects Of Gdp And Pmi On Changes In Stock Closing Prices, Charley Renna
Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters
In an effort to learn more about the impact of certain economic variables on the stock market, I chose to analyze the impact that the Purchasing Managers’ Index and U.S. Gross Domestic Product have on three major stock indices: S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq 100. The PMI is an index of the direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and services sector. Released on the first business day of every month, it consists of a diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions are expanding, staying the same, or contracting. An index level greater than 50 percent suggests …
An Ai Approach To Measuring Financial Risk, Lining Yu, Wolfgang Karl Hardle, Lukas Borke, Thijs Benschop
An Ai Approach To Measuring Financial Risk, Lining Yu, Wolfgang Karl Hardle, Lukas Borke, Thijs Benschop
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
AI artificial intelligence brings about new quantitative techniques to assess the state of an economy. Here, we describe a new measure for systemic risk: the Financial Risk Meter (FRM). This measure is based on the penalization parameter (λ" role="presentation" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal; font-size: 18px; text-indent: 0px; text-align: left; text-transform: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-spacing: normal; overflow-wrap: normal; white-space: nowrap; float: none; direction: ltr; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0px; min-height: 0px; border: 0px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; position: relative;">λλ) of a linear quantile lasso regression. The FRM is calculated by taking the average …
The Unexpected Activeness Of Passive Investors: A Worldwide Analysis Of Etfs, Si Cheng, Massimo Massa, Hong Zhang
The Unexpected Activeness Of Passive Investors: A Worldwide Analysis Of Etfs, Si Cheng, Massimo Massa, Hong Zhang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The global ETF industry provides more complicated investment vehicles than low-cost index trackers. Instead, we find that the real investments of ETFs may deviate from their benchmarks to leverage informational advantages (which leads to a surprising stock-selection ability) and to help affiliated OEFs through cross-trading. These effects are more prevalent in ETFs domiciled in Europe. Moreover, ETF flows seem to respond to additional risk. These results have important normative implications for consumer protection and financial stability. (JEL G20)
Do Real Estate Agents Have Information Advantages In Housing Markets?, Sumit Agarwal, Jia He, Tien Foo Sing, Changcheng Song
Do Real Estate Agents Have Information Advantages In Housing Markets?, Sumit Agarwal, Jia He, Tien Foo Sing, Changcheng Song
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We use a large housing transaction data set in Singapore to study whether real estate agents use information advantages to buy houses at bargain prices. Agents bought their own houses at prices that are 2.54% lower than comparable houses bought by other buyers. Consistent with information asymmetries, agent buyers have more information advantages in less informative environments, and agent buyers are more likely to buy houses from agent sellers. Agent discounts are from both “cherry picking” and bargaining power, and bargaining power contributes more to the agent discounts. Agents’ advantage consists in their information of available houses and previous purchase …
Long-Term Index Fund Ownership And Stock Returns, Ekkehart Boehmer, Wanshan Song, Ashish Tiwari, Zhe Zhang
Long-Term Index Fund Ownership And Stock Returns, Ekkehart Boehmer, Wanshan Song, Ashish Tiwari, Zhe Zhang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We examine the implications of stock ownership by index funds for shareholder value. Consistent with recent findings that stock ownership by passive funds contributes to improved governance, we document a strong positive relation between the duration of passive fund holdings and subsequent stock performance. This positive relation is more pronounced for firms with recent poor performance, and for smaller firms and firms with higher allocation weights in passive funds’ portfolios. Our results support the view that index funds, although passive in their investment decisions, successfully contribute to long-term value creation by actively engaging with firms on matters of governance.
Irrational Exuberance: Panic Rooms And Flutters In Financial Markets, Vijay Fafat
Irrational Exuberance: Panic Rooms And Flutters In Financial Markets, Vijay Fafat
Asian Management Insights
As the memory of the 2008 financial crash fades, there are cautionary thoughts on why we tend to overshoot in our optimism, and why even genius comes to grief in the face of capricious, mercurial capital markets.
The Role Of Social Trust In Times Of Crisis, Singapore Management University
The Role Of Social Trust In Times Of Crisis, Singapore Management University
Perspectives@SMU
Research shows social trust improves the resilience of firms to banking crises
Understanding The Fundamentals Of Freight Markets Volatility, Kian Guan Lim, Nikos K. Nomikos, Nelson Yap
Understanding The Fundamentals Of Freight Markets Volatility, Kian Guan Lim, Nikos K. Nomikos, Nelson Yap
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We analyse empirically the drivers of freight market volatility. We use several macroeconomic and shipping-related factors that are known to affect the supply and demand for shipping and examine their impact on the term structure of freight options implied volatilities (IV). We find that the level of IVs is affected by the level of the spot rate, the slope of the forward curve, as well as by both demand and supply factors, especially the former. We demonstrate that the relation between the volatility of futures prices and the slope of the forward curve is non-monotonic and convex, that is, it …
Show Me The (Value Of) Money!, Singapore Management University
Show Me The (Value Of) Money!, Singapore Management University
Perspectives@SMU
Plenty of adults are not financially literate. Teaching children early can make a big difference
The World Predictive Power Of U.S. Equity Market Skewness Risk, Jian Chen, Fuwei Jiang, Shuyu Xue, Jiaquan Yao
The World Predictive Power Of U.S. Equity Market Skewness Risk, Jian Chen, Fuwei Jiang, Shuyu Xue, Jiaquan Yao
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This study investigates the cross-country impact of U.S. equity market skewness risk. We find that a large decrease in the U.S. market skewness significantly predicts higher future returns on international equity markets. The predictability remains significant after controlling for a set of U.S. and local forecasting variables. Furthermore, we find strong predictability in- an out-of-sample setting and the predictability delivers a large economic value. The U.S. market skewness also forecasts U.S. economic recessions and international market conditions, consistent with the international three-moment capital asset pricing model (three-moment CAPM) and the intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM).
Volatility Timing Under Low-Volatility Strategy, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee
Volatility Timing Under Low-Volatility Strategy, Poh Ling Neo, Chyng Wen Tee
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
The authors devise a volatility timing strategy based on statistical tests on the slope of the volatility decile portfolio return profile. Superior performance is obtained, with a 30% increase in Sharpe ratio and an order of magnitude improvement on cumulated wealth. The profitability of the volatility timing strategy can be attributed to holding a diversified portfolio during bear markets, while holding a concentrated growth portfolio during bull markets.
Forecasting Realized Volatility Using A Nonnegative Semiparametric Model, Anders Eriksson, Daniel P. A. Preve, Jun Yu
Forecasting Realized Volatility Using A Nonnegative Semiparametric Model, Anders Eriksson, Daniel P. A. Preve, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper introduces a parsimonious and yet flexible semiparametric model to forecastfinancial volatility. The new model extends a related linear nonnegative autoregressive modelpreviously used in the volatility literature by way of a power transformation. It is semiparametric inthe sense that the distributional and functional form of its error component is partially unspecified.The statistical properties of the model are discussed and a novel estimation method is proposed.Simulation studies validate the new method and suggest that it works reasonably well in finitesamples. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of the proposed model is evaluated against anumber of standard models, using data on S&P 500 …
Time-Varying Contemporaneous Spillovers During The European Debt Crisis, Marinela Adriana Finta, Bart Frijins, Alireza Tourani-Rad
Time-Varying Contemporaneous Spillovers During The European Debt Crisis, Marinela Adriana Finta, Bart Frijins, Alireza Tourani-Rad
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
This paper considers contemporaneous spillover effects between Germany and four peripheral European countries that were most affected by the European Debt Crisis, and provides evidence of bidirectional spillovers among these equity markets. We document that there is asymmetry and time variation in contemporaneous spillovers. Particularly, contemporaneous return spillovers from Germany to the peripheral equity markets is higher than the other way around. We show that European Debt Crisis led to a decrease in the contemporaneous spillover effects.
Forecasting In Blockchain-Based Local Energy Markets, Michael Kostmann, Wolfgang Karl Hardle
Forecasting In Blockchain-Based Local Energy Markets, Michael Kostmann, Wolfgang Karl Hardle
Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics
Increasingly volatile and distributed energy production challenges traditional mechanisms to manage grid loads and price energy. Local energy markets (LEMs) may be a response to those challenges as they can balance energy production and consumption locally and may lower energy costs for consumers. Blockchain-based LEMs provide a decentralized market to local energy consumer and prosumers. They implement a market mechanism in the form of a smart contract without the need for a central authority coordinating the market. Recently proposed blockchain-based LEMs use auction designs to match future demand and supply. Thus, such blockchain-based LEMs rely on accurate short-term forecasts of …
International Welfare Spillovers Of National Pension Schemes, James Staveley-O'Carroll, Olena Staveley-O'Carroll
International Welfare Spillovers Of National Pension Schemes, James Staveley-O'Carroll, Olena Staveley-O'Carroll
Economics Department Working Papers
We employ a two-country overlapping-generations model to explore the international dimension of household portfolio choices induced by the asymmetric provision of government-run pensions. We study the resulting patterns of risk-sharing and the corresponding welfare effects on both home and foreign agents. Introducing the defined benefits pay-as-you-go system at home increases the welfare of all other agents at the expense of the home workers and improves the degree of intergenerational risk sharing abroad. Conversely, a defined contributions system leads to welfare losses of both home cohorts accompanied by gains abroad, but does increase the extent of intergenerational risk sharing at home.
Marginal Cost Of Risk-Based Capital And Risk-Taking, Tao Chen, Jing Rong Goh, Shinichi Kamiya, Pingyi Lou
Marginal Cost Of Risk-Based Capital And Risk-Taking, Tao Chen, Jing Rong Goh, Shinichi Kamiya, Pingyi Lou
Research Collection School Of Economics
We explore the impact of capital adequacy requirements on financial institutions' risk-taking behavior from a novel perspective. Specifically, we show that an important feature of the risk-based capital (RBC) system a built-in diversification benefit in aggregating risk categories induces moral hazard. We find that insurers that face lower marginal RBC costs of fixed-income (FI) investment tend to purchase riskier Fl securities. This relationship holds even when lower marginal RBC costs result from increased risk in other risk categories, which is an unintended consequence of the RBC's square root rule. Using Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy as exogenous shocks to the RBC …
Effects Of Terrorism On The U.S. Stock Market: Evidence From High Frequency Data, Kyla Scanlon
Effects Of Terrorism On The U.S. Stock Market: Evidence From High Frequency Data, Kyla Scanlon
Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects
This paper investigates the effects that terrorist attacks and mass shootings had on the U.S. stock market, using high frequency intraday data to identify stock price and variability reactions in the hours after the attack. The impact that terrorist attacks had on price level variability was examined using the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. The market reaction to domestic versus foreign attacks was examined to measure a potential for contagion across financial markets. The potential for flight-to-safety/quality and capital reallocation in response to terrorist attacks were measured using ordinary least squares (OLS) model, measuring the respective betas of small …
Robust Measures Of Earnings Surprises, Chin-Han Chiang, Wei Dai, Jianqing Fan, Harrison Hong, Jun Tu
Robust Measures Of Earnings Surprises, Chin-Han Chiang, Wei Dai, Jianqing Fan, Harrison Hong, Jun Tu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Event studies of market efficiency measure an earnings surprise with the consensuserror (CE), defined as earnings minus the average of professional forecasts. Even if asubset of forecasts can be biased, the ideal but difficult to estimate parameter-dependentalternative to CE is a nonlinear filter of individual errors that adjusts for bias. We showthat CE is a poor parameter-free approximation for this ideal measure. The fractionof misses on the same side (FOM), by discarding the magnitude of misses, offers a farbetterapproximation. FOM performs particularly well against CE in predicting thereturns of US stocks, where bias is potentially large, than that of international …
"At The Very Beginning, There's This Dream." The Role Of Utopia In The Workings Of Local And Cryptocurrencies, Diane-Laure Arjaliès
"At The Very Beginning, There's This Dream." The Role Of Utopia In The Workings Of Local And Cryptocurrencies, Diane-Laure Arjaliès
Business Publications
Since the 2008 financial crisis, the number of alternative currencies aiming at transforming global financial institutions, such as local and complementary currencies (LCC) and cryptocurrencies, has exploded. Yet the motivations and workings of such monies are relatively unknown. This chapter aims to fill this gap by providing a framework that uncovers the ideals pursued by alternative currencies, and the effects of those ideals on the production of money. To do so, I present a comparative analysis of the valuation infrastructure – the processes through which value(s) is produced – of one LCC, Sol Violette, and three cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Ğ1 …
Financial Sector In Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Sai Fan Pei
Financial Sector In Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Sai Fan Pei
Research Collection School Of Economics
This chapter reviews the financial development strategies adopted by the Singapore government as it navigates internal and external changes to build a vibrant center of finance in the Asia Pacific region. Sections 2 and 3 provide an overview of the structure of the financial system and the financial governance framework respectively. This is followed by a discussion, in Section 4, on the outward looking development strategy that underpinned the successful development of Singapore’s financial sector. Section 5 highlights the reforms undertaken in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis that led to the building of a well-diversified and thriving international …
Intraday Information From S&P 500 Index Futures Options, Kian Guan Lim, Chen Ying, Kian Leong Nelson Yap
Intraday Information From S&P 500 Index Futures Options, Kian Guan Lim, Chen Ying, Kian Leong Nelson Yap
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In this paper we employ intraday transaction prices of liquid E-mini S&P 500 index futuresoptions to form 10-minutes ahead risk-neutral skewness forecasts and show profitable optionstrading strategy net of transaction costs. We do not find profitable trading based on 10-minutesahead risk-neutral volatility and only very marginal cases of profitable trading using kurtosisforecasts. The skewness profitability anomaly may be an indication of informational marketinefficiency in intraday S&P 500 futures options markets, which is contrary to findings usinglonger-span daily and weekly moments. Our results lend credence to the persistence of intradaytrading activities in the markets.
Estimation Of Multivariate Asset Models With Jumps, Angela Loregian, Laura Ballotta, Gianluca Gianluca Fusai, Marcos Fabricio Perez
Estimation Of Multivariate Asset Models With Jumps, Angela Loregian, Laura Ballotta, Gianluca Gianluca Fusai, Marcos Fabricio Perez
Business Faculty Publications
We propose a consistent and computationally efficient two-step methodology for the estimation of multidimensional non-Gaussian asset models built using Levy processes. The proposed framework allows for dependence between assets and different tail behaviors and jump structures for each asset. Our procedure can be applied to portfolios with a large number of assets as it is immune to estimation dimensionality problems. Simulations show good finite sample properties and significant efficiency gains. This method is especially relevant for risk management purposes such as, for example, the computation of portfolio Value at Risk and intra-horizon Value at Risk, as we show in detail …
Climate Risks And Market Efficiency, Harrison Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Jiangmin Xu
Climate Risks And Market Efficiency, Harrison Hong, Frank Weikai Li, Jiangmin Xu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
Climate science finds that the trend towards higher global temperatures exacerbates the risks of droughts. We investigate whether the prices of food stocks efficiently discount these risks. Using data from thirty-one countries with publicly-traded food companies, we rank these countries each year based on their long-term trends toward droughts using the Palmer Drought Severity Index. A poor trend ranking for a country forecasts relatively poor profit growth for food companies in that country. It also forecasts relatively poor food stock returns in that country. This return predictability is consistent with food stock prices underreacting to climate change risks.
Trading Regularity And Fund Performance, Jeffrey Busse, Lin Tong, Qing Tong, Zhe Zhang
Trading Regularity And Fund Performance, Jeffrey Busse, Lin Tong, Qing Tong, Zhe Zhang
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
We construct a new measure of trading regularity, capturing the extent to which investors trade on a regular basis. Institutional investors that regularly trade outperform those that trade less regularly. The performance of funds that regularly trade persists for at least a year. Among those who trade most regularly, larger funds perform relatively worse, because they incur higher transaction costs associated with their larger trades. Institutions that regularly trade generate superior performance, in part, by behaving as contrarians and by trading more aggressively on information. By contrast, we find no relation between trading regularity and performance among index funds.