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Full-Text Articles in Finance and Financial Management

Quantum Machine Learning For Credit Scoring, Nikolaos Schetakis, Davit Aghamalyan, Micheael Boguslavsky, Agnieszka Rees, Marc Rakotomalala, Paul Robert Griffin May 2024

Quantum Machine Learning For Credit Scoring, Nikolaos Schetakis, Davit Aghamalyan, Micheael Boguslavsky, Agnieszka Rees, Marc Rakotomalala, Paul Robert Griffin

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

This study investigates the integration of quantum circuits with classical neural networks for enhancing credit scoring for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). We introduce a hybrid quantum–classical model, focusing on the synergy between quantum and classical rather than comparing the performance of separate quantum and classical models. Our model incorporates a quantum layer into a traditional neural network, achieving notable reductions in training time. We apply this innovative framework to a binary classification task with a proprietary real-world classical credit default dataset for SMEs in Singapore. The results indicate that our hybrid model achieves efficient training, requiring significantly fewer epochs …


On The Effects Of Information Asymmetry In Digital Currency Trading, Kwansoo Kim, Robert John Kauffman Mar 2024

On The Effects Of Information Asymmetry In Digital Currency Trading, Kwansoo Kim, Robert John Kauffman

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

We report on two studies that examine how social sentiment influences information asymmetry in digital currency markets. We also assess whether cryptocurrency can be an investment vehicle, as opposed to only an instrument for asset speculation. Using a dataset on transactions from an exchange in South Korea and sentiment from Korean social media in 2018, we conducted a study of different trading behavior under two cryptocurrency trading market microstructures: a bid-ask spread dealer's market and a continuous trading buy-sell, immediate trade execution market. Our results highlight the impacts of positive and negative trader social sentiment valences on the effects of …


The Value Of Official Website Information In The Credit Risk Evaluation Of Smes, Cuiqing Jiang, Chang Yin, Qian Tang, Zhao Wang Dec 2023

The Value Of Official Website Information In The Credit Risk Evaluation Of Smes, Cuiqing Jiang, Chang Yin, Qian Tang, Zhao Wang

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

The official websites of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) not only reflect the willingness of an enterprise to disclose information voluntarily, but also can provide information related to the enterprises’ historical operations and performance. This research investigates the value of official website information in the credit risk evaluation of SMEs. To study the effect of different kinds of website information on credit risk evaluation, we propose a framework to mine effective features from two kinds of information disclosed on the official website of a SME—design-based information and content-based information—in predicting its credit risk. We select the SMEs in the software …


Evolve Path Tracer: Early Detection Of Malicious Addresses In Cryptocurrency, Ling Cheng, Feida Zhu, Yong Wang, Ruicheng Liang, Huiwen Liu Aug 2023

Evolve Path Tracer: Early Detection Of Malicious Addresses In Cryptocurrency, Ling Cheng, Feida Zhu, Yong Wang, Ruicheng Liang, Huiwen Liu

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

With the boom of cryptocurrency and its concomitant financial risk concerns, detecting fraudulent behaviors and associated malicious addresses has been drawing significant research effort. Most existing studies, however, rely on the full history features or full-fledged address transaction networks, both of which are unavailable in the problem of early malicious address detection and therefore failing them for the task. To detect fraudulent behaviors of malicious addresses in the early stage, we present Evolve Path Tracer, which consists of Evolve Path Encoder LSTM, Evolve Path Graph GCN, and Hierarchical Survival Predictor. Specifically, in addition to the general address features, we propose …


How Does Credit Risk Affect Cost Management Strategies? Evidence On The Initiation Of Credit Default Swap And Sticky Cost Behavior, Jing Dai, Nan Hu, Rong Huang, Yan Yan Jun 2023

How Does Credit Risk Affect Cost Management Strategies? Evidence On The Initiation Of Credit Default Swap And Sticky Cost Behavior, Jing Dai, Nan Hu, Rong Huang, Yan Yan

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

In this paper, we examine the effect of credit defaults swaps (CDS) initiation on reference firms' cost management strategies. CDS contracts provide insurance protection for creditors, inducing a shift in bargaining power from borrowers to creditors and an excessive incidence of bankruptcy. Anticipating more intransigent creditors in debt renegotiations and higher bankruptcy risk, CDS firms are incentivized to mitigate risk through decreasing cost stickiness after CDS initiation, as cost stickiness lowers liquidity and triggers early covenant violations. We find that, on average, CDS initiation is associated with a decline in reference firms' cost stickiness. This association is more pronounced for …


Secure Hierarchical Deterministic Wallet Supporting Stealth Address, Xin Yin, Zhen Liu, Guomin Yang, Guoxing Chen, Haojin Zhu Sep 2022

Secure Hierarchical Deterministic Wallet Supporting Stealth Address, Xin Yin, Zhen Liu, Guomin Yang, Guoxing Chen, Haojin Zhu

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Over the past decade, cryptocurrency has been undergoing a rapid development. Digital wallet, as the tool to store and manage the cryptographic keys, is the primary entrance for the public to access cryptocurrency assets. Hierarchical Deterministic Wallet (HDW), proposed in Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 32 (BIP32), has attracted much attention and been widely used in the community, due to its virtues such as easy backup/recovery, convenient cold-address management, and supporting trust-less audits and applications in hierarchical organizations. While HDW allows the wallet owner to generate and manage his keys conveniently, Stealth Address (SA) allows a payer to generate fresh address (i.e., …


Quantum Computing For Supply Chain Finance, Paul R. Griffin, Ritesh Sampat Sep 2021

Quantum Computing For Supply Chain Finance, Paul R. Griffin, Ritesh Sampat

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Applying quantum computing to real world applications to assess the potential efficacy is a daunting task for non-quantum specialists. This paper shows an implementation of two quantum optimization algorithms applied to portfolios of trade finance portfolios and compares the selections to those chosen by experienced underwriters and a classical optimizer. The method used is to map the financial risk and returns for a trade finance portfolio to an optimization function of a quantum algorithm developed in a Qiskit tutorial. The results show that whilst there is no advantage seen by using the quantum algorithms, the performance of the quantum algorithms …


Smart Contracts: Will Fintech Be The Catalyst For The Next Global Financial Crisis?, Randall Duran, Paul Griffin Jan 2021

Smart Contracts: Will Fintech Be The Catalyst For The Next Global Financial Crisis?, Randall Duran, Paul Griffin

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Purpose: This paper aims to examine the risks associated with smart contracts, a disruptive financial technology (FinTech) innovation, and assesses how in the future they could threaten the integrity of the global financial system. Design/methodology/approach: A qualitative approach is used to identify risk factors related to the use of new financial innovations, by examining how over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives contributed to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) which occurred during 2007 and 2008. Based on this analysis, the potential for similar concerns with smart contracts are evaluated, drawing on the failure of The DAO on the Ethereum blockchain, which involved the loss …


Blockchain-Based Public Auditing And Secure Deduplication With Fair Arbitration, Haoran Yuan, Xiaofeng Chen, Jianfeng Wang, Jiaming Yuan, Hongyang Yan, Willy Susilo Dec 2020

Blockchain-Based Public Auditing And Secure Deduplication With Fair Arbitration, Haoran Yuan, Xiaofeng Chen, Jianfeng Wang, Jiaming Yuan, Hongyang Yan, Willy Susilo

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Data auditing enables data owners to verify the integrity of their sensitive data stored at an untrusted cloud without retrieving them. This feature has been widely adopted by commercial cloud storage. However, the existing approaches still have some drawbacks. On the one hand, the existing schemes have a defect of fair arbitration, i.e., existing auditing schemes lack an effective method to punish the malicious cloud service provider (CSP) and compensate users whose data integrity is destroyed. On the other hand, a CSP may store redundant and repetitive data. These redundant data inevitably increase management overhead and computational cost during the …


Empowering Singapore’S Smes: Fintech P2p Lending — A Lifeline For Smes’ Survival?, Grace Lee, Alan Megargel Nov 2020

Empowering Singapore’S Smes: Fintech P2p Lending — A Lifeline For Smes’ Survival?, Grace Lee, Alan Megargel

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

The COVID-19 pandemic has sent shock waves throughout the world, pushed countries into lockdown, and wreaked havoc on the world’s people and the global economy. The damage to economies around the world caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has far exceeded that of the global financial crisis. While all businesses suffered hugely, it would be of grave consequence if the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), an important segment of every country’s economy, are unable to withstand the shock wave and sustain themselves beyond this pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of cash flow or working capital for the viability …


The Future Of Work Now: Ai-Driven Transaction Surveillance At Dbs Bank, Thomas H. Davenport, Steven M. Miller Oct 2020

The Future Of Work Now: Ai-Driven Transaction Surveillance At Dbs Bank, Thomas H. Davenport, Steven M. Miller

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

One of the most frequently-used phrases at business events these days is “the future of work.” It’s increasingly clear that artificial intelligence and other new technologies will bring substantial changes in work tasks and business processes. But while these changes are predicted for the future, they’re already present in many organizations for many different jobs. The job and incumbents described below are an example of this phenomenon. Steve Miller of Singapore Management University and I co-authored the story.


Optimal Design And Ownership Structures Of Innovative Retail Payment Systems, Zhiling Guo, Dan Ma Dec 2019

Optimal Design And Ownership Structures Of Innovative Retail Payment Systems, Zhiling Guo, Dan Ma

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

In response to the Fintech trend, an ongoing debate in the banking industry is how to design the new-generation interbank retail payment and settlement system. We propose a two-stage analytical model that takes into account the value-risk tradeoff in the new payment system design, as well as banks’ participation incentives and adoption timing decisions. We find that, as the system base value increases, banks tend to synchronize their investment and adoption decisions. When the system base value is low and banks are heterogeneous, bank association ownership maximizes social welfare. When both the system base value and bank heterogeneity are moderate, …


Quantum Consensus, Jorden Seet, Paul Griffin Dec 2019

Quantum Consensus, Jorden Seet, Paul Griffin

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

In this paper, we propose a novel consensus mechanism utilizing the quantum properties of qubits. This move from classical computing to quantum computing is shown to theoretically enhance the scalability and speed of distributed consensus as well as improve security and be a potential solution for the problem of blockchain interoperability. Using this method may circumvent the common problem known as the Blockchain Trilemma, enhancing scalability and speed without sacrificing de-centralization or byzantine fault tolerance. Consensus speed and scalability is shown by removing the need for multicast responses and exploiting quantum properties to ensure that only a single multicast is …


Automated Theme Search In Ico Whitepapers, Chuanjie Fu, Andrew Koh, Paul Griffin Nov 2019

Automated Theme Search In Ico Whitepapers, Chuanjie Fu, Andrew Koh, Paul Griffin

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

The authors explore how topic modeling can be used to automate the categorization of initial coin offerings (ICOs) into different topics (e.g., finance, media, information, professional services, health and social, natural resources) based solely on the content within the whitepapers. This tool has been developed by fitting a latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) model to the text extracted from the ICO whitepapers. After evaluating the automated categorization of whitepapers using statistical and human judgment methods, it is determined that there is enough evidence to conclude that the LDA model appropriately categorizes the ICO whitepapers. The results from a two-population proportion test …


Risk Pooling, Supply Chain Hierarchy, And Analysts' Forecasts, Nan Hu, Jian-Yu Ke, Ling Liu, Yue Zhang Feb 2019

Risk Pooling, Supply Chain Hierarchy, And Analysts' Forecasts, Nan Hu, Jian-Yu Ke, Ling Liu, Yue Zhang

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

We investigate whether a firm's risk pooling affects its analysts' forecasts, specifically in terms of forecast accuracy and their use of public vs. private information, and how risk pooling interacts with a firm's position in the supply chain to affect analysts' forecasts. We use a social network analysis method to operationalize risk pooling and supply chain hierarchy, and find that risk pooling significantly reduces analysts' forecast errors and increases (decreases) their use of public (private) information. We also find that the positive (negative) relationships between risk pooling and analyst forecast accuracy and analysts' use of public (private) information are more …


Esg And Corporate Financial Performance: Empirical Evidence From China's Listed Power Generation Companies, Changhong Zhao, Yu Guo, Jiahai Yuan, Mengya Wu, Daiyu Li, Yiou Zhou, Jiangang Kang Aug 2018

Esg And Corporate Financial Performance: Empirical Evidence From China's Listed Power Generation Companies, Changhong Zhao, Yu Guo, Jiahai Yuan, Mengya Wu, Daiyu Li, Yiou Zhou, Jiangang Kang

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Nowadays, listed companies around the world are shifting from short-term goals of maximizing profits to long-term sustainable environmental, social, and governance (ESG) goals. People have come to realize that ESG has become an important source of the corporate risk and may affect the company's financial performance and profitability. Recent research shows that good ESG performance could improve the financial performance in some countries. Yet, the question of how does ESG affect financial performance has not been thoroughly discussed and studied in China. In this article, we study China's listed power generation groups to explore the relationship between ESG performance and …


A Proposal For A Decentralized Liquidity Savings Mechanism With Side Payments, Adam Fugal, Rodney Garratt, Zhiling Guo, Dave Hudson Jun 2018

A Proposal For A Decentralized Liquidity Savings Mechanism With Side Payments, Adam Fugal, Rodney Garratt, Zhiling Guo, Dave Hudson

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

In most countries, the central bank provides the medium to physically settle the smallest payments (cash) and the means to electronically settle the largest payments, which typically are wholesale payments between banks. For the latter purpose the central bank usually operates a system through which banks can settle payments in central bank money. Historically, interbank payments were settled via (end of day) netting systems, but as volumes and values increased central banks became worried about the risks inherent in deferred net settlement systems, so most central banks opted for the implementation of a Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) system. With …


On The Fintech Revolution: Interpreting The Forces Of Innovation, Disruption And Transformation In Financial Services, Peter Gomber, Robert J. Kauffman, Chris Parker, Bruce W. Weber Jun 2018

On The Fintech Revolution: Interpreting The Forces Of Innovation, Disruption And Transformation In Financial Services, Peter Gomber, Robert J. Kauffman, Chris Parker, Bruce W. Weber

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Firms in the financial services industry have been faced with the dramatic and relatively recentemergence of new technology innovations, and process disruptions. The industry as a whole, and many newfintech start-ups are looking for new pathways to successful business models, the creation of enhanced customerexperience, and new approaches that result in services transformation. Industry and academic observers believethis to be more of a revolution than a set of less impactful changes, with financial services as a whole due formajor improvements in efficiency, in customer centricity and informedness. The long-standing dominance ofleading firms that are not able to figure out how …


How To Enable Future Faster Payments? An Evaluation Of A Hybrid Payments Settlement Mechanism, Zhiling Guo, Yuanzhi Huang Jul 2017

How To Enable Future Faster Payments? An Evaluation Of A Hybrid Payments Settlement Mechanism, Zhiling Guo, Yuanzhi Huang

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

In the era of Fintech innovation and e-commerce, faster settlement of massive retail transactions is crucial for business growth and financial system stability. However, speeding up payments settlement can create periodic liquidity shortfalls to banks which would incur high cost of funds in the settlement process. We propose a new hybrid settlement mechanism design that integrates features of real-time gross settlement, deferred net settlement, and central queue management structure. The hybrid mechanism is managed by an intermediary and is particularly suitable to settle large volume of small-value retail payments. We evaluate the mechanism using computer experiments and simulation. We find …


Does Director Interlock Impact The Diffusion Of Accounting Method Choice?, Jie Han, Nan Hu, Ling Liu, Gaoliang Tian Jul 2017

Does Director Interlock Impact The Diffusion Of Accounting Method Choice?, Jie Han, Nan Hu, Ling Liu, Gaoliang Tian

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

This paper examines the influence of director interlock on firms' discrete accounting method choices from the perspective of behavior diffusion. We argue that firm managers will imitate their interlocked-partner firm's accounting method choices when choosing their own accounting methods. We find that when there is an interlock relationship between two firms, their accounting method choices, including inventory and depreciation methods, are similar to each other, indicating that accounting method choices can diffuse across firms through director interlock. In addition, such similarity is greater the longer the interlock relationship between the two firms is and as uncertainty increases. Further, the interlock …


Robust Median Reversion Strategy For Online Portfolio Selection, Dingjiang Huang, Junlong Zhou, Bin Li, Hoi, Steven C. H., Shuigeng Zhou Jul 2016

Robust Median Reversion Strategy For Online Portfolio Selection, Dingjiang Huang, Junlong Zhou, Bin Li, Hoi, Steven C. H., Shuigeng Zhou

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

On-line portfolio selection has been attracting increasing interests from artificial intelligence community in recent decades. Mean reversion, as one most frequent pattern in financial markets, plays an important role in some state-of-the-art strategies. Though successful in certain datasets, existing mean reversion strategies do not fully consider noises and outliers in the data, leading to estimation error and thus non-optimal portfolios, which results in poor performance in practice. To overcome the limitation, we propose to exploit the reversion phenomenon by robust L1-median estimator, and design a novel on-line portfolio selection strategy named "Robust Median Reversion" (RMR), which makes optimal portfolios based …


The Impact Of Nasd Rule 2711 And Nyse Rule 472 On Analyst Behavior: The Strategic Timing Of Recommendations Issued On Weekends, Yi Dong, Nan Hu Jul 2016

The Impact Of Nasd Rule 2711 And Nyse Rule 472 On Analyst Behavior: The Strategic Timing Of Recommendations Issued On Weekends, Yi Dong, Nan Hu

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Amendments to NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472, enacted in May 2002, mandate that sell-side analysts disclose the distribution of their security recommendations by buy, hold and sell category. This regulation enhances the transparency of analysts' information and mitigates the long-recognized optimistic bias in their recommendations. However, we find that analysts are more likely to issue sell recommendations or downgrade revisions on weekends when investors have limited attention after these rule changes. This pattern is more pronounced for prestigious analysts, who are more likely to influence stock prices. Market reaction tests reveal an incomplete immediate response and a greater …


Olps: A Toolbox For On-Line Portfolio Selection, Bin Li, Doyen Sahoo, Hoi, Steven C. H. Apr 2016

Olps: A Toolbox For On-Line Portfolio Selection, Bin Li, Doyen Sahoo, Hoi, Steven C. H.

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

On-line portfolio selection is a practical financial engineering problem, which aims to sequentially allocate capital among a set of assets in order to maximize long-term return. In recent years, a variety of machine learning algorithms have been proposed to address this challenging problem, but no comprehensive open-source toolbox has been released for various reasons. This article presents the first open-source toolbox for "On-Line Portfolio Selection" (OLPS), which implements a collection of classical and state-of-the-art strategies powered by machine learning algorithms. We hope that OLPS can facilitate the development of new learning methods and enable the performance benchmarking and comparisons of …


Moving Average Reversion Strategy For On-Line Portfolio Selection, Bin Li, Steven C. H. Hoi, Doyen Sahoo, Zhi-Yong Liu May 2015

Moving Average Reversion Strategy For On-Line Portfolio Selection, Bin Li, Steven C. H. Hoi, Doyen Sahoo, Zhi-Yong Liu

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

On-line portfolio selection, a fundamental problem in computational finance, has attracted increasing interest from artificial intelligence and machine learning communities in recent years. Empirical evidence shows that stock's high and low prices are temporary and stock prices are likely to follow the mean reversion phenomenon. While existing mean reversion strategies are shown to achieve good empirical performance on many real datasets, they often make the single-period mean reversion assumption, which is not always satisfied, leading to poor performance in certain real datasets. To overcome this limitation, this article proposes a multiple-period mean reversion, or so-called "Moving Average Reversion" (MAR), and …


Semi-Universal Portfolios With Transaction Costs, Dingjiang Huang, Yan Zhu, Bin Li, Shuigeng Zhou, Steven C. H. Hoi Jan 2015

Semi-Universal Portfolios With Transaction Costs, Dingjiang Huang, Yan Zhu, Bin Li, Shuigeng Zhou, Steven C. H. Hoi

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Online portfolio selection (PS) has been extensively studied in artificial intelligence and machine learning communities in recent years. An important practical issue of online PS is transaction cost, which is unavoidable and nontrivial in real financial trading markets. Most existing strategies, such as universal portfolio (UP) based strategies, often rebalance their target portfolio vectors at every investment period, and thus the total transaction cost increases rapidly and the final cumulative wealth degrades severely. To overcome the limitation, in this paper we investigate new investment strategies that rebalances its portfolio only at some selected instants. Specifically, we design a novel on-line …


Board Interlock Networks And The Use Of Relative Performance Evaluation, Qian Hao, Nan Hu, Ling Liu, Lee J. Yao Jul 2014

Board Interlock Networks And The Use Of Relative Performance Evaluation, Qian Hao, Nan Hu, Ling Liu, Lee J. Yao

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to explore how networks of boards of directors affect relative performance evaluation (RPE) in chief executive officer (CEO) compensation. Design/methodology/approach - In this study, the authors propose that an interlocking network is an important inter-corporate setting, which has a bearing on whether boards decide to use RPE in CEO compensation. They adopt four typical graph measures to depict the centrality/position of each board in the interlock network: degree, betweenness, eigenvector and closeness, and study their impacts on RPE use. Findings - The authors find that firms that have more connected board members …


Online Portfolio Selection: A Survey, Bin Li, Steven C. H. Hoi Jan 2014

Online Portfolio Selection: A Survey, Bin Li, Steven C. H. Hoi

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Online portfolio selection is a fundamental problem in computational finance, which has been extensively studied across several research communities, including finance, statistics, artificial intelligence, machine learning, and data mining. This article aims to provide a comprehensive survey and a structural understanding of online portfolio selection techniques published in the literature. From an online machine learning perspective, we first formulate online portfolio selection as a sequential decision problem, and then we survey a variety of state-of-the-art approaches, which are grouped into several major categories, including benchmarks, Follow-the-Winner approaches, Follow-the-Loser approaches, Pattern-Matching--based approaches, and Meta-Learning Algorithms. In addition to the problem formulation …


Robust Median Reversion Strategy For On-Line Portfolio Selection, Dingjiang Huang, Junlong Zhou, Bin Li, Steven Hoi, Shuigeng Zhou Aug 2013

Robust Median Reversion Strategy For On-Line Portfolio Selection, Dingjiang Huang, Junlong Zhou, Bin Li, Steven Hoi, Shuigeng Zhou

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

On-line portfolio selection has been attracting increasing interests from artificial intelligence community in recent decades. Mean reversion, as one most frequent pattern in financial markets, plays an important role in some state-of-the-art strategies. Though successful in certain datasets, existing mean reversion strategies do not fully consider noises and outliers in the data, leading to estimation error and thus non-optimal portfolios, which results in poor performance in practice. To overcome the limitation, we propose to exploit the reversion phenomenon by robust L1-median estimator, and design a novel on-line portfolio selection strategy named "Robust Median Reversion" (RMR), which makes optimal …


Confidence Weighted Mean Reversion Strategy For Online Portfolio Selection, Bin Li, Steven C. H. Hoi, Peilin Zhao, Vivekanand Gopalkrishnan Mar 2013

Confidence Weighted Mean Reversion Strategy For Online Portfolio Selection, Bin Li, Steven C. H. Hoi, Peilin Zhao, Vivekanand Gopalkrishnan

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Online portfolio selection has been attracting increasing attention from the data mining and machine learning communities. All existing online portfolio selection strategies focus on the first order information of a portfolio vector, though the second order information may also be beneficial to a strategy. Moreover, empirical evidence shows that relative stock prices may follow the mean reversion property, which has not been fully exploited by existing strategies. This article proposes a novel online portfolio selection strategy named Confidence Weighted Mean Reversion (CWMR). Inspired by the mean reversion principle in finance and confidence weighted online learning technique in machine learning, CWMR …


Confidence Weighted Mean Reversion Strategy For On-Line Portfolio Selection, Bin Li, Steven C. H. Hoi, Peilin Zhao, Vivek Gopalkrishnan Apr 2011

Confidence Weighted Mean Reversion Strategy For On-Line Portfolio Selection, Bin Li, Steven C. H. Hoi, Peilin Zhao, Vivek Gopalkrishnan

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

On-line portfolio selection has been attracting increasing attention from the data mining and machine learning communities. All existing on-line portfolio selection strategies focus on the first order information of a portfolio vector, though the second order information may also be beneficial to a strategy. Moreover, empirical evidences show that the stock price relatives may follow the mean reversion property, which has not been fully exploited by existing strategies. This article proposes a novel on-line portfolio selection strategy named ``Confidence Weighted Mean Reversion'' (CWMR). Inspired by the mean reversion principle in finance and confidence weighted online learning technique in machine learning, …