Finance and Financial Management Commons^™

Endogenous Market Choice, Listing Regulations, And Ipo Spread: Evidence From The London Stock Exchange, Hafiz Hoque, John Doukas

Finance Faculty Publications

This study examines the endogenous market choice and its impact on underwriter spread if Alternative Investment Market (AIM) IPOs that meet Main Market (MM) listing requirements had issued equity in the MM during the 1995–2021 period. We find that the spread is 1.33% higher in the AIM than the MM for IPO listings that meet the MM listing requirements. This finding suggests that AIM companies, meeting the MM listing requirements, could have saved more than £100 million by going public through the MM than the AIM market. We also find that this spread differential is attributed to the issuing firms' …

The Way Digitalization Is Impacting International Financial Markets: Stock Price Synchronicity, Chen Chen, M. Mahdi Moeini Gharagozloo, Layla Darougar, Lei Shi

Finance Faculty Publications

This paper investigates whether and how the development level of a country's digital economy affects stock price synchronicity. The results indicate that countries with high levels of digital economy development exhibit low stock price synchronicity. Additionally, by decomposing stock price synchronicity into systematic and firm‐specific stock return variations, we find that systematic (firm‐specific) variations of stock returns decrease (increase) with the level of a country's digitalization. These findings shed light on the future trend of stock price synchronicity in financial markets around the world and support the information‐based interpretation of stock price synchronicity.

Are Ceos To Blame For Corporate Failure? Evidence From Chapter 11 Filings, Rajib Chowdhury, John A. Doukas

Finance Faculty Publications

This study examines whether chief executive officers (CEOs) are to blame for corporate failures. Using alternative CEO managerial ability measures, we document that high-ability (low-ability) CEOs are less (more) likely to be associated with bankruptcy. We also find that reorganized firms run by high-ability incumbent CEOs experience improved financial performance after filing for Chapter 11. Firms that hire high-ability CEOs with bankruptcy experience also realize improved financial performance. Our evidence indicates that the likelihood of corporate bankruptcy is unrelated to the presence of high-ability managers and that bankruptcy does not adversely affect the post-bankruptcy careers of high-ability CEOs.

Sentiment-Scaled Capm And Market Mispricing, John A. Doukas, Xiao Han

Finance Faculty Publications

This study explores the conditional version of the capital asset pricing model on sentiment to provide a behavioural intuition behind the value premium and market mispricing. We find betas (β) and the market risk premium to vary over time across different sentiment indices and portfolios. More importantly, the state β derived from this sentiment-scaled model provides a behavioural explanation of the value premium and a set of anomalies driven by mispricing. Different from the static β-return relation that gives a flat security market line, we document upward security market lines when plotting portfolio returns against their state βs and portfolios …

When Fund Management Skill Is More Valuable?, Feng Dong, John A. Doukas

Finance Faculty Publications

Does fund management skill allow managers to identify mispriced securities more accurately and thereby make better portfolio choices resulting in superior fund performance when noise trading- a natural setting to detect skill - is more prevalent? We find skilled-fund managers with superior past performance to generate persistent excess risk-adjusted returns and experience significant capital inflows, especially in high sentiment times, high stock dispersion and economic expansion states when price signals are noisier. This pattern persists after we control for lucky bias, using the "false discovery rate" approach, which permits to disentangle manager "skill" from "luck".

How Ceo Wealth Affects The Riskiness Of A Firm, Sonik Mandal, Charlie Swartz, Sanjib Guha, Carl B. Mcgowan Jr.

Finance Faculty Publications

The objective of this paper is to analyze the relationship between the ownership level of managers and the risk averse behavior of the firm. We measure the ownership level of the managers by the ratio of their ownership of the company relative to their total wealth for a sample of 69 individuals from the Forbes 400 list of the wealthiest individuals in the world for the period from 2001-11 using an unbalanced panel data analysis. The dependent variable is the Altman Z-score of each firm and we further test these relationships using financial leverage. The independent variables are delta and …

Does The Market Believe White Knights And Hostile Bidders Are Acting In Their Shareholders' Interest?, John M. Griffith, Mohammad Najand, Jiancheng Shen

Finance Faculty Publications

This study examines why white knights suffer significant losses while their rival hostile bidders experience significant abnormal gains. We address two research questions: 1) Does the market believe that white knights and hostile bidders are acting in their shareholders' interest? 2) Does Tobin's q explain why white knights suffer significant losses and hostile bidders experience significant gains upon the announcement of their bids? The results show that hostile bidders are value-maximizing investors and white knights are not acting in their shareholders' interest. Instead, white knights suffered significant reductions in value and historically have not maximized the wealth of investors

Creditor Rights And R&D Expenditures, Bruce Seifert, Halit Gonenc

Finance Faculty Publications

Manuscript Type: Empirical

Research Question?Issue: This study examines the impact of creditor rights on R&D intensity (R&D/total assets). We argue that managers in countries with strong creditor rights have more incentives to reduce cash flow risk and therefore limit expenditures on R&D more than managers located in countries with weak creditor rights.

Research Findings/Insights: Using a sample of over 21,000 firms from 41 countries, our research is one of the first to document that strong creditor rights are indeed associated with reduced R&D intensity. This negative relationship is observed in market‐based countries, but not in bank‐based countries. Moreover, the results …

Risk Allocation Across The Enterprise: Evidence From The Insurance Industry, Michael K. Mcshane, Tao Zhang, Larry A. Cox

Finance Faculty Publications

Financial researchers initially regarded hedging activities as a means to reduce total firm risk, which often is defined in terms of cash flow volatility. More recently, researchers have focused on the strategic allocation of risk. Direct tests of risk allocation have been problematic, however, because hedging data are rarely available and, when available, are specific only to a single operation of the firm, such as bank lending. In this study, we exploit unique data from the insurance industry that allows us to observe hedging proxies for both investment and insurance underwriting risks and test the risk allocation hypothesis developed in …

Maintaining A Flexible Payout Policy In A Mature Industry: The Case Of Crown Cork And Seal In The Connelly Era, James Ang, Tom Arnold, C. Mitchell Conover, Carol Lancaster

Finance Faculty Publications

As related in these pages, the history of Crown Cork and Seal (hereafter known as “Crown”) provides us with a case of a company that stopped paying dividends but establish a disciplined share repurchase policy and did so for all the right reasons. Under family ownership in the 1950s, Crown lost market share and was on the brink of bankruptcy when its largest shareholder, John Connelly, was elected chairman of the board in 1957. Under John Connelly’s leadership, the firm restructured its operations and began a payout policy based solely on stock repurchases. During the Connelly era, the firm did …

Real Options Analysis And The Assumptions Of Corporate Finance: A Non-Technical Review, Tom Arnold, Richard L. Shockley Jr.

Finance Faculty Publications

This paper provides a non-technical presentation of the theoretical foundations of corporate financial decision making and the net present value (NPV) rule. Our objective is to show that the concepts of value and value creation arise from a single, unified framework that is firmly rooted in neoclassical microeconomic theory. This, in turn, allow us to demonstrate that the corporate valuation approach generically known as real options analysis is perfectly justifiable - without further qualification - in any situation when investors want managers to maximize NPV.

An Examination Of Value Line’S Long-Term Projection, Andrew Szakmary, C. Mitchell Conover, Carol Lancaster

Finance Faculty Publications

Unlike previous papers, which have focused on the timeliness ranks, we examine Value Line’s 3–5 year projections for stock returns, earnings, sales and related measures. We find that Value Line’s stock return and earnings forecasts exhibit large positive bias, although their sales predictions do not. For stock returns, Value Line’s projections lack predictive power; for other variables predictive power may exist to some degree. Our findings suggest the spectacular past performance of the timeliness indicator reflects either close alignment with other known anomalies or data mining, and that investors and researchers should use Value Line’s long-term projections with caution.

Duration Measures For Corporate Project Valuation, Tom Arnold, David S. North

Finance Faculty Publications

Sensitivity analysis is a very common exercise performed with the forecasting of project cash flows. In this paper, a duration-type measure is generated that provides a single number for the assessment of project cash flows relative to changes in the discount rate (or adjusted for changes in a particular cash flow model parameter). The calculation is no more difficult than the duration measures that already exist for bonds. Yet, the calculation provides valuable insight that many times is lost when performing sensitivity analysis. Further, at a minimum, the measure provides a gauge for the consequences of mis-specifiying the discount rate …

A Simplified Approach To Understanding The Kalman Filter Technique, Tom Arnold, Mark J. Bertus, Jonathan Godbey

Finance Faculty Publications

The Kalman filter is a time series estimation algorithm that is applied extensively in the field of engineering and recently (relative to engineering) in the field of finance and economics. However, presentations of the technique are somewhat intimidating despite the relative ease of generating the algorithm. This article presents the Kalman filter in a simplified manner and produces an example of an application of the algorithm in Excel. This scaled-down version of the Kalman filter can be introduced in the (advanced) undergraduate classroom as well as the graduate classroom.

Using Gmm To Flatten The Option Volatility Smile, Tom Arnold

Finance Faculty Publications

By using an over-identified Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation procedure with careful consideration for data biases existing in the previous literature, parameters are estimated for a stochastic volatility jump diffusion option pricing (SVJ) model. The estimated parameters indicate a statistically significant highly negative infrequent jump process in the underlying security return distribution consistent with market crashes. When comparing to a stochastic volatility (SV) option pricing model, the SVJ is more robust but not always the superior model. The robustness of the models is further gauged by evaluating performance up to a year beyond the estimation data.

Do Option Markets Substitute For Stock Markets?, Tom Arnold, Gayle Erwin, Lance Nail, Terry D. Nixon

Finance Faculty Publications

Using a sample of cash tender offers occurring between 1993 and 2002, we find evidence that the options market has become the preferred venue for traders attempting to profit on anticipated announcements. Options offer advantages relative to stocks. Traders gain leverage by trading in options and multiple options contracts on an individual stock. The results of our study indicate that a substitution effect does exist. Abnormal volume in the option market replaces abnormal volume in the stock market prior to cash tender offer announcements, and this abnormal option volume precedes abnormal stock volume for targets with or without traded options.

Using The Wacc To Value Real Options, Tom Arnold, Timothy Falcon Crack

Finance Faculty Publications

We present a real option valuation using the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). This is an alternative to risk-neutral real option valuation. Using the WACC involves a marginal increase in mathematical complexity, but it is easy to implement in a spreadsheet, and it is easy to present to management. Our analysis reveals, however, that because the real option valuation is immune to choices of admissible discount rates (as per Arnold and Crack 2003a), the critical issue is correct estimation of volatility, not choice of discount rate. We also point out that the natural and conservative tendency to overestimate risk …

Adr Risk Characteristics And Measurement, Tom Arnold, Lance Nail, Terry D. Nixon

Finance Faculty Publications

While a healthy empirical literature exists on international diversification and its benefits, surprisingly few studies have examined the risk characteristics and efficacy of asset pricing models for one avenue of international diversification – investments in American Depository Receipts (ADRs). Originating in approximately 1927, ADRs provide an opportunity for investors to indirectly purchase shares of foreign firms. ADRs represent a claim to a given number of shares of a foreign firm held by a U.S. financial institution (e.g., Bank of New York). With the increasingly significant presence of ADR trading in the American stock markets – increasing six-fold between 1990 and …