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Full-Text Articles in Finance and Financial Management
Stock Market Correlations To Economic Indicators, Anthony K. Quandt
Stock Market Correlations To Economic Indicators, Anthony K. Quandt
Honors Theses
For this project, I researched how representative the S&P 500 (a common index of choice to represent the market) is of the economic well-being of the US. I found that stock market data can be used an as indicator of the economic well-being of the U.S.. The results do not indicate that the stock market leads to recovery, but it does suggest that it is correlated with recovery. In my analysis, I compared the S&P 500 performance to four different economic indicators: Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), The Consumer Price Index (CPI), Average Weekly Private Wages, and Unemployment Rate. A …
Simulations Illustrate Flaw In Inflation Models, Peter L. D'Antonio Ph.D.
Simulations Illustrate Flaw In Inflation Models, Peter L. D'Antonio Ph.D.
Faculty Works: Business (1973-2022)
This study questions the basic assumption of standard inflation models that there are only two forces driving price changes - underlying inflation and short-term noise. Specifically, the paper analyzes the distributions of individual price changes to shed light on an apparent contradiction: individual price changes are extremely dispersed, while measured inflation, the aggregate of individual price changes, remains relatively steady. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the standard inflation model is inconsistent with this observation. The author reintroduces a new inflation model that explicitly accounts for the possibility of a third price-change driver - long-term sector-specific forces. Simulations show that the …