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The Process Of Pension Forecasting, Michael Sze

Journal of Actuarial Practice (1993-2006)

This paper explains the process of pension forecasting. It discusses the common purposes and uses of pension forecasts, the major steps involved, and the principal limitations of these forecasts. Some insights into each stage of the forecasting process are provided. Among the stages discussed are: the background research to be performed; the selection of scenario assumptions; shortcuts used in the actual performance of the forecast; review of the forecast results; and communication of the forecast findings.